davidc Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 01/02/09 AEK v Olympiakos £10.00 3.08 01/02/09 Eibar v Elche £10.00 3.03 01/02/09 Alaves v Salamanca £10.00 3.01 01/02/09 Gimnastic v Tenerife £10.00 3.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Davids Draws 2 bets for tonight: Date Teams Stake Odds 02/02/09 Boulogne v Montpellier £10.00 3.03 02/02/09 Mantova v Livorno £10.00 2.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One bet for tomorrow night: Date Teams Stake Odds 06/02/09 Boulogne v Metz £10.00 3.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays draw selections: Date Teams Stake Odds 08/02/09 Larissa v AEK £10.00 3.10 08/02/09 Thrasivoulos v OFI Crete £10.00 3.10 08/02/09 Naval v Nacional £10.00 3.06 08/02/09 Alicante v Girona £10.00 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One more for today: Date Teams Stake Odds 08/02/09 Marseille v Bordeaux £10.00 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One bet for tomorrow: Date Teams Stake Odds 10/02/09 Modena v Rimini £10.00 2.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Three bets for tomorrow: Date Teams Stake Odds 13/02/09 Chateauroux v Strasbourg £10.00 3.05 13/02/09 Nimes v Troyes £10.00 3.03 13/02/09 Brest v Angers £10.00 3.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 13, 2009 Author Share Posted February 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Poor results from the last few days - will update stats later but not good! Todays bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 16/02/09 Clermont v Lens £10.00 3.10 16/02/09 Setubal v Academica £10.00 3.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 17, 2009 Author Share Posted February 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 17, 2009 Author Share Posted February 17, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Two selections for tonight: Date Teams Stake Odds 17/02/09 Le Mans v Lille £10.00 3.10 17/02/09 Albinoleffe v Sassuolo £10.00 2.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 20, 2009 Author Share Posted February 20, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 22, 2009 Author Share Posted February 22, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Very poor run of results lately; updated stats after tonights selection. Date Teams Stake Odds 23/02/09 Metz v Lens £10.00 3.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seepps Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Hello, After having backtested Spooner draws system, I've backtested yours. I hope you won't think I want to cricticise, it's just a contribution to help you in finding the best system. Of course it's easy to me to evaluate systems; I dream of the day I will present my system. Don't know if this dream will become true :-( Feel free to ask me further information that might help you. Have a nice evening. Valeurs Étiquettes de lignes Nombre de result Somme de result Somme de win/loss BE 178 -8,840213612 53 1 178 -8,840213612 53 DE 582 -50,91410228 168 1 373 -53,47882489 101 2 209 2,564722603 67 ES 923 -154,3685477 261 1 436 -64,41846809 119 2 487 -89,95007957 142 FR 862 -84,34549521 273 1 523 -32,81088396 169 2 339 -51,53461124 104 GB 3109 -273,1614738 891 1 418 6,427223578 134 2 819 -43,98221863 244 3 762 -65,88332955 219 4 791 -129,0704924 208 5 319 -40,65265684 86 GR 139 -0,807971158 47 1 139 -0,807971158 47 IT 985 -23,67637052 358 1 403 -8,299983062 140 2 582 -15,37638746 218 NL 170 -8,156110537 50 1 170 -8,156110537 50 PT 152 -0,885305786 49 1 152 -0,885305786 49 SS 491 -101,5751172 118 1 219 -40,92611013 56 2 117 -18,8773011 29 3 81 -22,61107122 17 4 74 -19,16063472 16 TR 201 -48,46353553 48 1 201 -48,46353553 48 Total général 7792 -755,1942433 2316 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Hi Seeps - thanks for that analysis. Your analysis of the stats doesn't look too good with only a couple of leagues giving a marginal profit. Can I ask if you were able to follow the parameters for the system and how far back did you back test? I am particularly interested to know if you were able to follow the averages laid out below: Only select teams where the average odds are over 2.3 @ Betexplorer. Only select games in leagues where the under 2.5 goal average is 50% or better. Only select games in leagues where the average number of goals per match is under 2.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seepps Posted February 24, 2009 Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Hi Seeps - thanks for that analysis. Your analysis of the stats doesn't look too good with only a couple of leagues giving a marginal profit. Can I ask if you were able to follow the parameters for the system and how far back did you back test? I am particularly interested to know if you were able to follow the averages laid out below: Only select teams where the average odds are over 2.3 @ Betexplorer. Only select games in leagues where the under 2.5 goal average is 50% or better. Only select games in leagues where the average number of goals per match is under 2.5. Hello, In fact, the backtesting has been performed with the same condition of temperature and pression ;) I mean that I think I've have respected your given constraints, ie : 1- "Only select teams where the average odds are over 2.3 @ Betexplorer." => In my database I've several bookmakers' odds so I took the average odds and only selected the ones that are over 2.3 2- "Only select games in leagues where the under 2.5 goal average is 50% or better." => I've not selected the leagues one by one in order to have a global picture. From my understanding, you choose leagues depending on the overall under 2.5 goal average and then you select every game. Am I right ? 3- "Only select games in leagues where the average number of goals per match is under 2.5." => The same way as before, I let all the leagues to have a global picture. Not sure that everything is right; but what I've understood is that you pre-select leagues according two given criteria (2 and 3). Then from this set of games, you only pick games respecting the first criteria. Is it right ? cu and best wishes for the future ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Hi Seeps - thanks for the explanation. I was a little concerned (and still am) that in your back testing the odds requirements may not have been met. Betexplorer typically quote odds from 80 or more bookies for the qualifying leagues and I don't know if the number of bookies odds that you have used could have significantly affected the results of your analysis. I intend to continue posting (and betting!) the selections, at least for another few weeks, and if the results have not improved then I will end the system. Tomorrows bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 27/02/09 Sedan v Montpellier £10.00 3.11 27/02/09 Nimes v Angers £10.00 3.00 27/02/09 Vannes v Strasbourg £10.00 3.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Davids Draws 2 bets fro today: Date Teams Stake Odds 01/03/09 Panionios v PAOK £10.00 3.03 01/03/09 Panthrakikos v Asteras T. £10.00 2.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: Davids Draws 2 bets for tomorrow: Date Teams Stake Odds 06/03/09 Cittadella v Triestina £10.00 2.87 06/03/09 Rio Ave v Maritimo £10.00 3.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 7, 2009 Author Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 07/03/09 Toulouse v Bordeaux £10.00 3.10 07/03/09 Lorient v PSG £10.00 3.28 07/03/09 Asteras T. v Aris £10.00 2.92 07/03/09 Ancona v Vicenza £10.00 2.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays bets; Date Teams Stake Odds 09/03/09 Angers v Lens £10.00 3.07 09/03/09 Avellino v Mantova £10.00 2.95 09/03/09 Setubal v Nacional £10.00 3.19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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