davidc Posted December 5, 2008 Share Posted December 5, 2008 I have been running a thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/lay-unquoted-74585/ (which has almost run its course) but I noticed that the selection process has produced what appears to be a significant number of draws with 69 draws from 177 selections. This should be enough to produce a profit if the trend continues and although I haven't back tested as far as odds are concerned I believe that if you give each game conservative odds of 3.0 then the profit would be around 30 points to a 1 point stake. The rules are similar to the Lay Unquoted thread mentioned above: Only select teams where the average odds are over 2.3 @ Betexplorer. Only select games in leagues where the under 2.5 goal average is 50% or better. Only select games in leagues where the average number of goals per match is under 2.5. Current qualifying leagues are: France Ligue 1 France Ligue 2 Greece Super Liga Italy Serie B Portugal Super League Spain Segunda Selections to follow. Comments and questions welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Re: Davids Draws Should have been 3 bets for today but I didn't realise that the 2 Spanish games were early kick offs and as I had not placed these bets they will not count towards the results. Date Teams Stake Odds 07/12/08 Grenoble v Auxerre £10.00 3.10 07/12/08 Sevilla Atl. v Castellon No Bet - 07/12/08 Murcia v Tenerife No Bet - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Re: Davids Draws The figures in the last post would have been better if I had realised that the Spanish selections were both early kick offs as one ended up a draw. 3 selections for Monday: Date Teams Stake Odds 08/12/08 Amiens v Strasbourg £10.00 2.96 08/12/08 Rimini v Vicenza £10.00 2.89 08/12/08 Guimaraes v Leixoes £10.00 3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 12, 2008 Author Share Posted December 12, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 18, 2008 Author Share Posted December 18, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 18, 2008 Author Share Posted December 18, 2008 Re: Davids Draws Fridays bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 19/12/08 Ajaccio v Montpellier £10.00 2.90 19/12/08 Nimes v Bastia £10.00 2.90 19/12/08 Troyes v Metz £10.00 2.90 19/12/08 Naval v Guimaraes £10.00 3.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted December 18, 2008 Share Posted December 18, 2008 Re: Davids Draws Hi david, i use a draw system also(which i will post on this forum in january). I select exactly the same leagues as you do, except the portuguese super liga which currently has a draw % of only 26%. But there a some leagues with a higher draw %(i personally select all leagues with a minimum of 30% draws and a maximum of 2.5 goals scored on average in a match). Maybe you can think of adding the following leagues: France National 35% draws Israel Premier 33% Italy C1A 38% Italy C1B 32% Portugal 2nd division 32% Odds for draws in this league are very low in general(sometimes as low as 2.70), with the exception of the Israel league where you can find decent odds. Good luck with your system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 19, 2008 Author Share Posted December 19, 2008 Re: Davids Draws Hi subzero - thanks for the input. The system evolved from my Lay Unquoted thread and the rules don't currently require qualifying leagues to have a certain % draws but I may review the rules at some stage to include this requirement. Good luck with your system - I will follow with interest when you start to post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 20, 2008 Author Share Posted December 20, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Davids Draws Sundays bets and odds: Date Teams Stake Odds 21/12/08 Monaco v Bordeaux £10.00 3.20 21/12/08 Panthrakikos v Aris £10.00 3.10 21/12/08 Frosinone v Vicenza £10.00 2.80 21/12/08 Alaves v Tenerife £10.00 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 2, 2009 Author Share Posted January 2, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 2, 2009 Author Share Posted January 2, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One bet for tonight: Date Teams Stake Odds 02/01/09 Academica v Leixoes £10.00 3.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 3, 2009 Author Share Posted January 3, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Last nights result: Date Teams Stake Odds Result Won/Lost P/L 02/01/09 Academica v Leixoes £10.00 3.10 0-0 W £21.00 Todays selections: Date Teams Stake Odds 03/01/09 Rio Ave v Guimaraes £10.00 3.15 03/01/09 Eibar v Xerez £10.00 3.15 03/01/09 Albacete v Zaragoza £10.00 3.15 03/01/09 Alicante v Murcia £10.00 3.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport billy Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Hi to all ! I'm visiting this forum for awhile and i decided to say thanks for your picks. I'll be using them to start my sistem of doubles. Maybe only 3 or 4 games with draws. Thanks for your affort. All the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Some bets for tomorrow: Date Teams Stake Odds 16/01/09 Guingamp v Boulogne £10.00 3.00 16/01/09 Nimes v Sedan £10.00 3.00 16/01/09 Tours v Metz £10.00 3.00 16/01/09 Amiens v Montpellier £10.00 3.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 18, 2009 Author Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays selections: Date Teams Stake Odds 18/01/09 OFI Crete v Panionios £10.00 3.23 18/01/09 Alicante v Alaves £10.00 3.14 18/01/09 Huesca v Xerez £10.00 3.06 18/01/09 Eibar v Castellon £10.00 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One bet for tonight: Date Teams Stake Odds 19/01/09 Frosinone v Grosseto £10.00 2.87 Updated stats later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 22, 2009 Author Share Posted January 22, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Two bets for tonight: Date Teams Stake Odds 23/01/09 Chateauroux v Angers £10.00 3.00 23/01/09 Triestina v Bari £10.00 2.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Only one bet for today: Date Teams Stake Odds 24/01/09 Rimini v Parma £10.00 2.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 Re: Davids Draws Todays bets: Date Teams Stake Odds 25/01/09 Panthrakikos v Iraklis £10.00 3.10 25/01/09 Thrasivoulos v Xanthi £10.00 3.00 25/01/09 Aris v PAOK £10.00 3.00 25/01/09 Academica v Guimaraes £10.00 3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: Davids Draws One bet for tomorrow: (early kick-off) Date Teams Stake Odds 27/01/09 Sassuolo v Brescia £10.00 2.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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