Great Leighs 4/12/08

[fintron]

Horse Racing
Event	9.20 Great Leighs
Selection	Tobar Suil Lady
Strength	10/10
Date	04/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 4.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Tobar Suil Lady looks a decent bet in a race that looks devoid of lively contenders. Formerly with Kevin Ryan, J Spearing's filly has recorded both of her wins on polytrack, including last time out at Kempton. She is stepping up into unknown territory with regards to the trip (never raced beyond 7f) but she does have stamina on the dams side (dam's sire has a stamina index of 9.2f) and her half-sister was a multiple winner over 8f-10f at 2-3 in Italy. She has been raised 5 lbs from her last win but it is quite possible she can defy that rise and hopefully she can swoop late as she did last time. With regards to the opposition, few have recent winning form and many have been running in non-handicaps. 3/1 Blue Sq looks a decent price.

[fintron]

Re: Great Leighs 4/12/08 7.20 Great Leighs With Rabbit Fighter withdrawn there are only six runners left in this 6f sprint handicap. Compton Classic is the 9/4 jolly but I can't be having that about a horse that has done his recent winning in claimers and has been struggling in handicaps in the main. He ran okay last time but it was a modest handicap and the winner hasn't done much for the form since. All of the first four home were rated less than 60, so he's going to have to step up to find extra today now up in grade. Asian Power is due to go down 2 lbs in the future and even with a 5 lb claimer on he has a little to prove. The handicapper looks in control. This Ones for Eddy remains a maiden and even his best efforts have come in class 6 handicaps so he could be up against it in 0-75 company. Milne Bay has struggled off this sort of mark in his last two and is another up in grade. Leading Edge is the rank outsider and although well weighted on the pick of his form, is another with something to prove after being soundly beaten in recent starts. That leaves just one, Royal Envoy, who, although far from bombproof, looks decent value against this lot at 6/1. Paul Howling's gelding is at least a regular winner in this grade and infact won an 0-80 race at Thirsk in May off his current mark of 72. He handles this surface having won at Kempton and Wolverhampton and he hasn't been disgraced in recent starts, finishing 3rd to Alexander Hurricane in a better race than this in October before finding a poor draw against him last time at Kempton. He was forced to race wide coming around the bend that day and so had little chance of winning, but with such a small field here traffic problems should be less of an issue. He has the ability to win a race in this grade so I'm taking a punt at 6/1 Bet 365.