Jaded Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 $20 Cooler, multi-tabling so no reads. Should I be calling this for about 1/3 of my stack? PokerStars Game #22470972423: Tournament #123755307, $20.00+$0.80 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/11/29 19:53:14 CET [2008/11/29 13:53:14 ET] Table '123755307 1' 10-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: ChristopherT (870 in chips) Seat 2: Zorden666 (1330 in chips) Seat 4: KoquiK1 (1855 in chips) Seat 5: marcol1969 (2125 in chips) Seat 7: MONEYMAN0613 (935 in chips) Seat 8: kugster67 (4040 in chips) Seat 9: one and safe (1585 in chips) Seat 10: JadedJ (2260 in chips) ChristopherT: posts the ante 20 Zorden666: posts the ante 20 KoquiK1: posts the ante 20 marcol1969: posts the ante 20 MONEYMAN0613: posts the ante 20 kugster67: posts the ante 20 one and safe: posts the ante 20 JadedJ: posts the ante 20 one and safe: posts small blind 100 JadedJ: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JadedJ [Jh] [Th] ChristopherT: raises 650 to 850 and is all-in Zorden666: folds KoquiK1: folds marcol1969: folds MONEYMAN0613: raises 65 to 915 and is all-in kugster67: folds one and safe: folds JadedJ: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Not a chance you should be calling this :loon I'm not going to plug it into holdemresources.net because I've lost a bit of confidence in it following AJ's hand earlier (when I finally get around to looking at it in any depth, I'll probably find it was right :loon). Have you thought of doing your own ICM analysis on the hand? I think it's a good thing for everyone to be able to do/understand who is playing coolers :ok That can show you how bad a decision calling would be :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves clearest fold I've seen in years. You're going to lose a player which improve your equity. Sit back and watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Ditto Mr. AJ :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves I'd tried to convince myself to call...but you can't.:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves A common mistake is to needless double/treble up short stacks in a ridiculous rushed attempt to bust them. Keep 'em lean. ps I'd need jacks or better before I started thinking about a call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves A common mistake is to needless double/treble up short stacks in a ridiculous rushed attempt to bust them. Keep 'em lean. ps I'd need jacks or better before I started thinking about a call. I was thinking what I'd need to call in this situation, wouldn't do it without KK or AA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Ok - I couldnt help but plug it into holdemresources :$ http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=200&sb=100&ante=20&structure=0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2&s1=870&s2=1330&s3=1855&s4=2125&s5=935&s6=4040&s7=1585&s8=2260&s9= With an UTG shove and a CO shove, the BB call range is (allegedly :$) BB3.0%, JJ+ AKs AKo A bit looser than you thought - but not totally unreasonable :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Thats in response to a UTG shove range of: 23.4%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K7s+ KJo+ Q8s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s and a cut off push range of: 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves anyone calling with Ako wants their head examined. I'm begining to seriously doubt the value of holdemresources Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves I dont think AKo is that unreasonable given the chances of the 2 short stacks having AQ, AJ .... A2... I'll crunch some numbers of my own on this later..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Equity if you fold and MONEYMAN wins: Equity if you fold and Christopher wins: Equity if you fold and it's a split pot: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves So your equity if you fold and it's not a split pot is between 72.5% and 73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves If you call and beat both hands, then your equity is: If you call and Player 5 wins then your equity is: If you call and Player 1 wins with you 2nd, then the equity is: If you call, Player 1 wins and Player 5 is second, then the equity is: For simplicity I'll ignore the split pot scenarios - they're not going to change things that much, but will add a lot of calculations..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Odds against Top 23.4% and Top 7.1%: The ranges there are slightly different to the ones we had earlier: Thats in response to a UTG shove range of: 23.4%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K7s+ KJo+ Q8s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s and a cut off push range of: 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+ Using those specific ranges we get: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves So..... You have about a 37% chance of winning and getting 96.5% equity There is about a 37% chance of Player 2 winning and you being left with 57.8% equity There is a 27.5% chance of Player 1 winning. In that scenario, You will finish 2nd about 53% of the time leaving you with 61.1% equity Player 5 will finish 2nd about 47% of the time leaving you with 56.9% equity Sum these up and your overall expectation if you call is: 73.3% This is slightly higher than the 72.5% if you fold. Calling with AKo looks a good decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves anyone calling with Ako wants their head examined. I think I need my head examined :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves Not a chance you should be calling this then Sum these up and your overall expectation if you call is: 73.3% This is slightly higher than the 72.5% if you fold So should I have called? I hate this maths stuff... I'm starting to sympathise with some of the bloody kids!!! (Thanks for the calculations though mate :ok :rollin) Ignore the above 'Should I have called?', just realised that was for AK. Hey, didn't there used to be a delete button here for those embarassing moments?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves :lol :lol :lol JTs just wasnt worth wasting time doing the maths on :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves JTs just wasnt worth wasting time doing the maths on :tongue2 Ok - seeing as I've got the equities, lets do it.... You have about a 26% chance of winning and getting 96.5% equity There is about a 46% chance of Player 2 winning and you being left with 57.8% equity There is a 30% chance of Player 1 winning. In that scenario, You will finish 2nd about 35% of the time leaving you with 61.1% equity Player 5 will finish 2nd about 65% of the time leaving you with 56.9% equity Sum these up and your overall expectation if you call is: 69.1% This is lower than the 72.5% if you fold. By calling you lose about 3.5% equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted December 1, 2008 Share Posted December 1, 2008 Re: JTs in Big Blind in $20 cooler, 2 short stack shoves $20 Cooler, multi-tabling so no reads. Should I be calling this for about 1/3 of my stack? Seat 1: ChristopherT (870 in chips) Seat 2: Zorden666 (1330 in chips) Seat 4: KoquiK1 (1855 in chips) Seat 5: marcol1969 (2125 in chips) Seat 7: MONEYMAN0613 (935 in chips) Seat 8: kugster67 (4040 in chips) Seat 9: one and safe (1585 in chips) Seat 10: JadedJ (2260 in chips) No, they are unlikely to split so one is 'effectively' out. If the one who wins is ChrisT he is in the BB next hand and Zorden another shortie in the BB the hand after - either way they both have less chps than you after paying the BB/SB and are struggling - If MoneyM wins he doubles up but his stack is still less than yours, and with one and safe also having a smaller stack this is an easy fold. Let them take each other out here, MM is only calling as the other shortstack with something better than crap, ChrisT might be shoving crap of course being UTG and desperate. Easy fold for me Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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