Approaching the Bubble in a Satellite

[happyhornet]

Top 14 get a ticket to the target tournament. There are 18 left. I have about 2750 chips (less than average but in about 11th place). The blinds are 160/320 but not due to go up for a few minutes yet. I am in the SB. UTG (no info) shoves for 2450 chips. It is folded round to me. I have Aces. I re-raise all in. He turns over Jacks, and hits a third one to leave me crippled. I go out a few hands later in 16th. Normally, I would play Aces in any situation barring on the bubble with several all-in's before me (or some other convoluted situation.) After kicking the dog for an hour or so:tongue2, I thought, should I have passed, and waited. I'm not in the blinds for 7 more hands and only 4 need to fall. In essence, i have over 30 hands before I am all in. The question is would passing here be the best move? Steve

[GaF]

Re: Approaching the Bubble in a Satellite The fact that he hit is Jack on this specific occasion has no bearing on your decision and what is right and what is wrong. You need just 2 numbers (estimates) to know whether you should call or fold. 1) If I fold, what is the probability that I will go on to win? 2) If I call, what is the probability that I will go on and win? You know with Aces that you are an 80%v20% favourite against an underpair. Against other cards, you're probably about 75%v25%. If you call and win then you are pretty much through? So we can say that calling wins you the tournament between 75% and 80% of the time. Thats the line. You therefore need to estimate whether folding gives you more or less than a 75-80% chance of winning. If it's more, you should fold, if it's less you should call, if it's about the same, then it makes no difference what you do. So it's critical for your judgement on your chances if you fold - how low are the stack below you? How are the others playing - are they avoiding one another or getting involved?