Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

[avongirl]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

You got that software that combined with poker tracker works out if you've just been unlucky or lucky in a lot of races? The combined odds of my 5 "bad beats" are just under 1,075,000 to 1 Now its not the first time and I havent been all in over a million times.

I've pasted it back in the original post too. :ok

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

Just fired up 4 bad beat tables at prima this should be a stroll!

:lol:lol:lol see always a silver lining:tongue2

[GaF]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

Normal variance and probability have nothing to do with luck' date='[b']however to lose to 3 3 outers a 2 outer and a runner runner straight can not be explained by probability(well it can but its an awfully big number) They were also my only all ins during the games. Whatever the odds are I doubt if I have been all in tourneys that many times. Inexplicable runs of bad variance and good variance are far too extreme to be explained mathematically(even by Slapdash). Much better to listen to cosmic guru Runadrum;)

I disagree strongly with that - a number of possible explanations: - Your memory of the hands (and other hands) is not especially accurate (that's not directed specifically at you - it happens to all of us - even Slapdash :tongue2) - You're taking specific events that have happened, and then saying "Whats the chances of this specific event" (lets say its 1 in a million) and not giving proper consideration to either the number of times you test that 1 in a million shot or all the other 1 in a million shots that could have happened (or all the other people they could have happened to). For example - you have a 1 in a million shot that you test a thousand times a day - it will come true on average once every 3 years or you have 1000 different things that are a 1 in a million shot - then you're looking at 1 in a thousand chance of one of them happening each time (hand?) you play or there are multiple people (say a forum full of people :tongue2) watching for 1 in a million shots - if there are 100 people watching for them, then your 1 in a million shot is only 1 in 10,000 to happen to any one of them Combine all 3 of those and the odds of 1 in a million shots happening are not especially remote...... So the conclusion must be that a 1 in a million shot is not remote enough to count as a bad beat :tongue2

[george2loose]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever I absoloutely believe in fate. In fact I did an article on it: pls see below and let me know what you think? http://blondepoker.com/?q=node/18215

[glceud]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever GaF your one in a million and we're all lucky to have you here its got bugger all to do with variance.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever Nice write-up :ok What do I think? You're a big luck box :loon :lol .... (but then I remembered the G2L-exclusive bad beat thread :lol)

[GaF]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

GaF your one in a million and we're all lucky to have you here its got bugger all to do with variance.

Is that all? :sad You mean that there are about 65 people like me in the country, and countless thousands worldwide? :sad :tongue2

[glceud]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

For example - you have a 1 in a million shot that you test a thousand times a day - it will come true on average once every 3 years

It's not even been 2 years and it's happened again:sadand I havent even come close to testing it a 1000 times a day(although there was one day last April............) Not going to bother starting an "I'm taking a break from poker thread",but I am.

[PGremlin]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever No!!!:cry:cry:cry

[avongirl]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever You're getting a job???? :loon Seriously, you probably play/grind more than most on here so it's good to take a break from time to time, whatever the circumstances. Enjoy your break/holiday and I'm sure you'll benefit from a fresh outlook when you come back. :ok

[Haichan]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever

Any one believe in any of these things? Have played 5 mtt's tonight and been knocked out of all of them when well ahead when the chips went in only to lose them all on the river. Now I've also had nights when every card at every table has fallen my way too, so I'm not bitter. It just emphasises the point. So should you stop playing after one or two bad beats on an unlucky night and carry on playing for 24hours on a lucky night? Reminds me of an old Sgt Bilko episode. Only one tourney left tonight so I'll post the bad beat there in half an hour.

The problem with bad beats is they do seem to come in a rush. Had 4 today. The usual, 2 90/10 and 2 80/10 where they sucked out a miracle on the river. But then i got the following which is one of the worst I've had. Hand History for Game 3206863085 ***** (IPoker) Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, September 15, 06:30:58 ET 2010 Table 1 Freezeout 495985721 (Real Money) Seat 4 is the button Seat 1: xtrinta ( $1610.00 USD ) Seat 2: shifters ( $2280.00 USD ) Seat 3: steliansss ( $3952.50 USD ) Seat 4: Evro1 ( $2775.00 USD ) Seat 5: patog0003 ( $2285.00 USD ) Seat 6: PSR66527082 ( $975.00 USD ) Seat 7: ZLOYY ( $1867.50 USD ) Seat 8: Haichan5 ( $1710.00 USD ) Seat 9: mattison1 ( $2357.50 USD ) Seat 10: karmartilt ( $3580.00 USD ) patog0003 posts small blind [$30.00 USD]. PSR66527082 posts big blind [$60.00 USD]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Haichan5 [ Ah As ] ZLOYY folds Haichan5 raises [$210.00 USD] mattison1 folds karmartilt raises [$720.00 USD] xtrinta folds shifters folds steliansss folds Evro1 folds patog0003 folds PSR66527082 folds Haichan5 raises [$1500.00 USD] karmartilt calls [$990.00 USD] ** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, Jd, Jc ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ] ** Dealing River ** [ Qd ] karmartilt wins $3510.00 USD from main pot karmartilt shows [Jh, Ac ] Some days you can't win. Sure its part of the game and i think its the variance which makes the game so bloody adictive.

[glceud]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever I would like to apologise to Mark for being all in against him and winning the Pot. There's more to this than luck though as these million to one shots only happen on Sundays. Teach me to run like God for 6 months. Did I say somewere in this thread I was talking a break:rollin

[glceud]

Re: Good luck, bad luck, fate, whatever Oh well, three years since the last million to one shot so GaF's estimation is spot on. Might take a break in 2016. Not sure what the post above is about, sure it made sense at the time.