AJ Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 All i want is the blinds and antes, don't want to see a flop and have a K or Ace hit. Was my preflop raise too weak and what now ? PokerStars Game #22284217060: Tournament #122346852, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2008/11/23 1:42:53 ET Table '122346852 1' 10-max Seat #9 is the button Seat 1: bobclev (1025 in chips) Seat 3: trouble (1425 in chips) Seat 4: DrKielbasa (2885 in chips) Seat 5: asjohnstone (1900 in chips) Seat 6: gargamel01 (1270 in chips) Seat 7: vicestfus (1420 in chips) Seat 8: mikepyp (4245 in chips) Seat 9: StraightPoop (830 in chips) bobclev: posts the ante 10 trouble: posts the ante 10 DrKielbasa: posts the ante 10 asjohnstone: posts the ante 10 gargamel01: posts the ante 10 vicestfus: posts the ante 10 mikepyp: posts the ante 10 StraightPoop: posts the ante 10 bobclev: posts small blind 50 trouble: posts big blind 100 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to asjohnstone [Qh Qd] DrKielbasa: folds asjohnstone: raises 300 to 400 gargamel01: folds vicestfus: folds mikepyp: calls 400 StraightPoop: raises 400 to 800 bobclev: folds trouble: folds asjohnstone: ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ From early position I dont think you want to be betting more than that - any more and I think you have to shove, and stacks are a bit big for that.... The min reraise is sooooo often aces - but he only has 30 chips left - I dont think you need to worry about mikepyp too much - and now you have odds (4-1) to call poop even if he does have Aces (and if he doesn't have AA or KK you're happy)....I shove now I think.. But lets run some equity checks and make sure..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ Looking at the chips has that mikepyp been flat calling all the time? and has that StraightPoop just lost a big pot? I'm thinking StraightPoop isn't that strong and just putting them in for a treble up maybe has a weak ace or low pp? If that mikepyp is the table limper I think you can get him to fold with an all in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ If you fold and we assume mike goes all in with a top 40% hand and poop calls with a top 20% hand (because he's short stacked - his min reraise isnt as indicative of Aces as I suggested), 44% of the time poop will be eliminated and 56% of the time poop will double through. When poop is eliminated, your seat is left worth €6.88. When poop doubles through your seat is worth €5.78. So your expectation is (€6.88 x 44%) + (€5.78 x 56%) = €6.26 Just realised I've ignored the split pot possibility - but I dont think the impact of that will be significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ Now lets say you shove..... We'll assume mike calls 50% of the time with a top 20% hand and poop calls 100% of the time with a top 20% hand When all 3 of you are in the pot: 54% of the time you win 23% of the time poop wins (and then you finish 2nd 70.5% of the time and mike is 2nd 29.5% of the time) 23% of the time mike wins Wow we're getting a lot of scenarios already....... When you win, your seat is worth €9.57 When Poop wins and you are 2nd, your seat is worth €3.27 When poop wins with mike 2nd or mike winning, your seat is worth €0 That gives you an expectation of (9.57x.54) + (3.27x(.23x.705)) = €5.70 When Mike folds you win 70.5% of the time and lose 29.5% of the time v poop. When you win your seat is worth €8.98 When you lose, your seat is worth €4.68 So your expectation is (8.89*.705)+(4.68*.295) = €7.65 So merging the two scenarios, your overall expectation for shoving is: (7.65 x .5) + (5.7 x .5) = €6.67. Folding and sitting out this hand gives you a seat worth €6.26. Shoving your queens leaves you with a seat worth €6.67. So shoving seems preferable over folding - there are no other options are there? Obviously I've made some pretty "stab in the dark" assumptions, and for simplicity I've continued to ignore split pot scenarios. Varying the assumptions could well have a significant impact on the outcome. I dont the the split pot scenarios will have a huge impact..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ All i want is the blinds and antes, don't want to see a flop and have a K or Ace hit. asjohnstone: ??? you cannot just call here and let the big stack in for 'free', so shove to isolate the shortie and :hope he has AK or you suck out against his AA/KK Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george2loose Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ Shooooooooove it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatch Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ Have to shove here, if you up against one of big two then just ul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teaulc Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ i had a similar situation last night but i had KK,i raised the pot and got 3 callers, had no choice when the flop came down with an ace to fold,as it was one of them had A/5o. so as it is a cooler i am folding,time enough to pick up another hand and gain the chips,no need to risk it imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ Thanks. StraightPoop with his min raise to 800 is doing exactly what slapdash mused on in the other thread a couple of days ago which is the first time I've seen it done since then. If he'd pushed we could both have called for 830 and checked it down, now it costs a minimum of 1200 to play. A call here was off the agenda, so i pushed in an attempt to get MikePyp out of the pot and go heads up agaisnt the shorter stack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ A call here was off the agenda, so i pushed in an attempt to get MikePyp out of the pot and go heads up agaisnt the shorter stack. spot on play:ok Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ I'm now happy I made the correct choice. Don't have the rest of the HH with me at present, but I pushed and the big stack called, so went into a three way pot. I faced KQ from the short stack and AQ from the big stack. My QQ held up and I coasted into the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ The rest of the hand.... asjohnstone: raises 1090 to 1890 and is all-in mikepyp: calls 1490 StraightPoop: calls 20 and is all-in *** FLOP *** [2d Kd 2c] *** TURN *** [2d Kd 2c] [5d] *** RIVER *** [2d Kd 2c 5d] [3c] *** SHOW DOWN *** asjohnstone: shows [Qh Qd] (two pair, Queens and Deuces) mikepyp: shows [Jd Qc] (a pair of Deuces) asjohnstone collected 2140 from side pot StraightPoop: shows [Ac Qs] (a pair of Deuces) asjohnstone collected 2690 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 4830 Main pot 2690. Side pot 2140. | Rake 0 Board [2d Kd 2c 5d 3c] Seat 1: bobclev (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: trouble (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: DrKielbasa folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: asjohnstone showed [Qh Qd] and won (4830) with two pair, Queens and Deuces Seat 6: gargamel01 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: vicestfus folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: mikepyp showed [Jd Qc] and lost with a pair of Deuces Seat 9: StraightPoop (button) showed [Ac Qs] and lost with a pair of Deuces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatch Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ wow, so he re raised with AQ?? See this is how bad some online players are and why it is so hard to put people on hands sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Cooler, Mid Stage QQ yeah, not even suited. I checked him out on SS later, had a ROI of -31%, straight line all the way down. 276 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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