Kempton 17/11/08

[billy the punter]

It's all a bit "jumpy" on here at the minute. :) Thankfully we have two A/W cards today, not as exciting granted, but I fancy my chances more on the sand. 4.10 Hughie Morrison's last 9 runners that went off at 16/1 or lower have finished 211122243. His Machestermaverick runs here and I believe he is well handicapped (60) on his maiden form. Was 4th to St Trinians on debut at Wolverhampton (beatn 14l but didn't stay 9f), the winner is fairly useful (won twice since and narrowly beaten off 88 LTO) but those in behind weren't great. Manchestermaverick ran better than the formline suggests however, showing good pace before tiring. Was narrowly beaten 2nd time out, this time over 7f on grass at Catterick. It wasn't a great race (4th rated 64) but the winner (Bluejain) sluiced up in a handicap NTO and has held his own off 70 marks. Was a disappointing fav on his 3rd start, was only just touched off again but it was a poor race and his previous form should've seen him take that. He was given another chance to get his head in fron in maiden company on his next start - was again a beaten short priced favourite but stumbled badly at the start and that run can perhaps be forgiven. He made his handicap debut LTO off a mark of 60 and I thought he had to go well. He was 2nd again after travelling well. Obviously there has to be question marks over his ability in a finish. I was a little disappointed he didn't win off that mark but perhaps he 'ran into one'. Tender Process who won the race had dropped in the weights. Therefore I'm fully prepared to give him another chance here, especially with the yard in such decent form. He is definitely well handicapped and although he may not find as much as expected when let down he will surely get his head in front very soon at this level. And E/W bet is in order given his previous running style. Manchestermaverick 50% of stake E/W

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 17/11/08 5.10 Five of the fourteen runners interest me here and I'll work from a short-list of those alone. Eastern Gift - His mark is plummeting 100 => 69 and he is looking increasingly well handicap as he form doesn't exactly suggest he is regressing at the same rate. He has two decent pieces of form to his name in September and his last two starts on the sand are very encouraging, especially LTO where a 2nd to the handicap good thing Pivka reads as good as a win. The main niggling doubt I have is that he has just one neck victory to his 18 starts, worrying for a horse rated as highly as he was. Watson's Bay - Ran ok for a long way in the maiden won by the aforementioned Pivka. Not disgraced in maidens in Ireland prior and will do better now handicapping. Bramalea - Has shown a consistent level of form all season bar two poor efforts at Wolverhampton (when 10th and 9th). Clearly acts on poly running above form in dirt maidens before showing handicap dirt formlines of 10619. If she bounces back from her poor run LTO as she did when she ran poorly prior then she'd have a chance at a price. Diego Riveria - I fancied this horse back in August and wrote this:

Diego Riviera looked all over the winner at Newbury on soft ground before being collared at the death my Noseda's Myanmar. I know that Noseda thinks a bit of that horse and that should be seen as decent form. Was 9th to Aqlaam on debut - we know how good that maiden is and given that the 12th has gone close off 74 and the 19th has won off 66 (I could go on) you have to say that Diego Riviera has every chance off getting a handicap off a mark of 70. Will love the ground and Makin does well here.

He was 7th to Kalahari Gold in between those mentioned and that maiden also worked out well. He did run poor in the race where I backed him though and was disapointing LTO too. A break since so perhaps something was amiss. Acted on dirt on his sole start on it but the ability to stay a mile is debatable. Moon Crystal - I backed Moon Crystal earlier in the season off a mark of 70 and she should've been a lot closer than the 7l 3rd here over 10f. Dropping to a competitve mark and in my opinion it's a matter of time before she takes a handicap. Looked the winner LTO when given a confident ride by Ryan Moore but was collared by a typical A/W rattling finisher. Should go well again, especially if the first time blinkers eek out some improvement. Moon Crystal Eastern Gift Bramalea Diego Riveria Watson's Bay Will confirm bets if I have time tomorrow.