20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34

[GaF]

20081411 - Cooler Analysis - Summary One hand before the last one - I folded my BB with ducks. At the time, I was thinking, I didn't want to call for my tournament life (I would have been left with 320 if I called and lost), for a race (at best) - maybe I couldnt wait and needed to call :unsure lets find out ;) (I havent given up/finished looking at hand 35, but want to look at something different....) ***** Hand 1320762584 ***** 150.00/300.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - 14 November 2008 19:34:40 Cooler (Real /Tournament ) Seat 2: jigen74 (2944.00) Seat 3: XenderAlli (2220.00) Seat 4: RayPenber (858.00) Seat 5: aALjane (985.00) Seat 6: PL-Aldric (1555.00) Seat 7: pl---GaF (1305.00) Seat 9: albi70 (3778.00) Seat 10: nike123 (1355.00) PL-Aldric post SB 150.00 pl---GaF post BB 300.00 ** Deal ** jigen74 [N/A, N/A] XenderAlli [N/A, N/A] RayPenber [N/A, N/A] aALjane [N/A, N/A] PL-Aldric [N/A, N/A] pl---GaF [:2s:, :2d:] albi70 [N/A, N/A] nike123 [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** albi70 Fold nike123 Fold jigen74 Fold XenderAlli Fold RayPenber Fold aALjane All-in 985.00 PL-Aldric Fold pl---GaF Fold *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 750.00 jigen74 Fold Win: 0.00 XenderAlli Fold Win: 0.00 RayPenber Fold Win: 0.00 aALjane By default Win: 750.00 PL-Aldric Fold Win: 0.00 pl---GaF Fold Win: 0.00 albi70 Fold Win: 0.00 nike123 Fold Win: 0.00

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 This is the tournament prize equity before the hand:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 This is the tournament prize equity if I fold:

[Punto Banco]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 In my book this is open shut fold! I really cant see calling as a positive equity move... but I guess we will find out 4 sure... I look forward to the results...:ok

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 If Jane shoves with any two and I call then the chances are:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34

In my book this is open shut fold! I really cant see calling as a positive equity move... but I guess we will find out 4 sure... I look forward to the results...:ok

Given it's 50/50 I'm now thinking it's going to come out at a clear call :unsure Folding reduces our equity from 54% to 44% - that's HUGE

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 If I win the hand, my equity increases to:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 If I call and lose, then the tournament prize equity is:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 49.39% of the time that I call, I win taking my tournament prize equity to 80.992% 48.72% of the time that I call, I lose taking my tournament equity down to 16.932% 1.9% of the time I call and tie taking my tournament equity to 56.264% (below) So the overall equity if I call a button shove with any two is: (49.39%x.80992)+(48.72%x.16932)+(1.9%x.56264)=49.3202% Tournament prize equity if I call and split the pot:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 So it's higher equity to call than fold if the button is shoving with any two.

Tournament Equity before hand	54.252%
Tournament equity if I fold pre flop	44.604%
Tournament equity if I call the shove from any two	49.320%

Lets see what happens if we give the button some credit and say they are shoving with top 50%....

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 If the button shoves top 50% of hands:

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 46.66% of the time that I call, I win taking my tournament prize equity to 80.992% 52.17% of the time that I call, I lose taking my tournament equity down to 16.932% 1.18% of the time I call and tie taking my tournament equity to 56.264% (below) So the overall equity if I call a button shove with any two is: (46.66%x.80992)+(52.17%x.16932)+(1.18%x.56264)=47.2882% Seems a pretty clear call then :unsure Starting to look like I got both decisions wrong in the last 2 hands.......

Tournament Equity before hand	54.252%
Tournament equity if I fold pre flop	44.604%
Tournament equity if I call the shove from any two	49.320%
Tournament equity if I call the shove from top 50% hand	47.288%

[Punto Banco]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34

46.66% of the time that I call, I win taking my tournament prize equity to 80.992% 52.17% of the time that I call, I lose taking my tournament equity down to 16.932% 1.18% of the time I call and tie taking my tournament equity to 56.264% (below) So the overall equity if I call a button shove with any two is: (46.66%x.80992)+(52.17%x.16932)+(1.18%x.56264)=47.2882% Seems a pretty clear call then :unsure Starting to look like I got both decisions wrong in the last 2 hands.......

Tournament Equity before hand	54.252%
Tournament equity if I fold pre flop	44.604%
Tournament equity if I call the shove from any two	49.320%
Tournament equity if I call the shove from top 50% hand	47.288%

Nice work... I think if we play a few more you will be able to cover enough areas to establish some base principles that cover these types of tourneys... I still wouldn't play them full time but i am happy to join a few to help the process along... well done... :clap :clap :clap :clap

[robilaruk]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34 Having read the whole thread, I would still fold 22 here, you are only ahead of 'X'2 interesting though Damo

[GaF]

Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 34

Having read the whole thread' date=' I would still fold 22 here, you are only ahead of 'X'2[/quote'] You're not significantly ahead of anything - but you're only behind to a pocket pair. Folding costs you 10% of your tournament equity (and 23% of your chips)- thats huuuuuuuge - against the players range you're unlikely to be less than 47% to win (so getting a flip), but getting 2-1 odds, and if you lose you're not totally out of the tourney. Obviously I folded at the time, but the maths has persuaded me that I made a big mistake and in the same situation now I would call without hesitation.....