Paddy Power Gold Cup ~ 2008

[mileni4uk]

Things are starting to shape for this jump season. What a great race this will be. I'll be away this weekend, but may still play with a small wager. The problem is I like many of the runners. One thing is sure, I'm not backing Silverburn at the price. What are your thoughts?

[fintron]

Re: Paddy Power Gold Cup ~ 2008

Things are starting to shape for this jump season. What a great race this will be. I'll be away this weekend' date=' but may still play with a small wager. The problem is I like many of the runners. One thing is sure, I'm not backing Silverburn at the price. What are your thoughts?[/quote'] I think course form is important with this being Cheltenham so have backed Il Duce, second in this race last year, Mister McGoldrick, who sprung a 66/1 suprise in at the festival, and Ouzbeck, who Robert Thornton prefers over Il Duce, who he partnered last year. I'm not one for backing short price favs over the jumps and Granit Jack was well fancied and fell last year, which shows nothing is guaranteed for Silverburn. That said, the Attheraces trends preview for this race did highlight that many of the recent runnings have been won by a horse from the first four in the betting. I would have been more confident about Il Duce had Choc taken the ride, but I think Ouzbeck looks a cracking bet. Imporantly, he's got course form, he represents one of the best yards in the country and looks a progressive chaser. He won over course and distance last time out off a 10 lb lower mark but could still improve as he's only 6. Choc always gives you a good ride for you money, the slight concern I have is that he wouldn't want the ground any softer though. Mister Mcgoldrick may be weighted up to the hilt and is older than many of the recent winners but he's a gutsy sod that jumped well last time and I like the trainer. He was written off before and won at a massive price. This race may be tougher but he is a CD winner and will go on any ground. I'm hoping he can hang on for a place which I got at 19.5, but also backed him to win at 75.0. Il Duce loves it here and is campaigned almost exclusively at Chelt now. He got done by a neck last year by L'Antartique but he won't mind any cut in the ground and could run his race at a big price - 70.0 taken on Betfair. As I say, it is offputting that Choc has ditched him though. However, I don't think you should avoid backing just because of a jockey snub, people said the same about Conduit earlier this year when Moore spurned the ride in the St Leger, but Frankie proved an able deputy. :D