Fintron's jumps thread 2008/9

[fintron]

I'm looking to get more into the jumps this season and have looked for some big priced winners to get things kicked off for a thread. I got stung backing odds on Katchit earlier in the season and will look for big priced winners from now on. The strike rate is likely to be poor but only need one winner at big odds to keep things in profit for a while. 12.40 Winc - Knighsbridgelives - top yard and jockey ,showed promise on hurdling debut. 16/1 Bet 365 BOG. 1.45 Winc - Ouh Jay - may have needed last run, rattled up a hat-trick last season and looks big at 33/1 Skybet. 2.50 Win - Dishdasha - been running quite consistently and won't mind soft ground. 80/1 SJ BOG. 3.25 Winc - Joacci - fell in national but looks on winnable mark. Gone well in past, handles cut, trainer coming back to form. 18/1 SJ BOG 2.40 Kelso - Indy Mood - CD winner who may have needed last run. 50/1 Bet 365 BOG. All selections 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's jumps thread 2008/9 The Tail End System by Ross Newton is a method of picking long priced jumps winners and it will partly influence my choices in this thread. In that book Newton says to concentrate on class 3,4 and 5 handicaps (hurdles and chases) at particular courses which have a decent number of outsider victories. An outsider is defined as a horse that wins with an SP of 10/1 or more. I had a bit of trouble reading the book because it more of less tells you to ditch conventional form reading procedures. He tells readers to focus on those runners at the tail end of the betting forecast and move backwards, one runner at a time, towards the head of the market. Newton gives plenty of examples of his selections using his method in his book and then provides snippets from the RP which show the form cuttings taken from the RP on the day of the race and how you are supposed to interpet the form to make selections. However, I will not be following his form reading procedure because I found it confusing and sometimes contradictory. Often selections were made on the basis of just one little bit of form, surrounded by a sea of poor form, and on some occasions his reasoning for backing one runner was sort of the same reasoning used to dismiss a selection in another. The book is still interesting though and his stat that one in six jumps races are won by an outsider shows there is mileage in looking for big priced winners, especially in handicaps, were short priced horses are often beaten. I have already been stung by backing odds on Katchit earlier in the season and have seen many odds on or short price horses lose since that time. On the flat I don't mind getting stuck into horses quite short, as there is less unpredicatability, horses cannot fall at fences and hurdles and they cannot be brought down by another faller. Admittedly, flat horses can hit trouble in running but you can factor that into your bets because of running styles and the draw. In summary, handicaps are the types of races to focus on for big price winners and that is the same whether you are betting on the jumps or flat, so in this thread I will be focusing on class 3,4 and 5 handicaps in the main, as Newton advises, but won't be following his methods of form interpretation. I will be following his example of focussing mainly on C3,4,5 handicaps, and will interpret the form as I see fit once I have identified a race as a betting opportunity. 2.40 Hereford - Anshabil - former Alan King horse that won over course and distance two years ago off 90. He hasn't had much racing since and has switched yards, but was entitled to need his recent outing at Huntingdon, is back down to a winning mark (90) and handles cut. 22/1 Sporting Bet, 1 pt win. 3.40 Hereford - Jimmy Bedney - this 7 year old remains a maiden but he hasn't had much racing and did finish a fair second here in a bumper in Nov 2005. Although he didn't jump well at Bangor at the back end of last year he has jumped well previously, such as in a novices hurdle at Doncaster, and he was the leader for quite a way at Towcester last time out before fading on his comeback run. He should find this track much easier today and it is interesting that he is stepped up quite a bit in distance. He also drops in class. 20/1 Betfred, 1 pt win.