Aphobos Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 Using Sporting Bet I'm going to bet 12.5% of my balance, £10 outlay, on short priced trebles. I'll update at a later time with a fuller explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 2, 2008 Author Share Posted November 2, 2008 Re: Short Priced Trebles Opening Blanace: £10.00 Round 1, Bet 1 £1.25 Guimaraes v Benfica, Benfica or Draw @1/4 Lyon v Le Mans, Over 1.5 Goals @1/5 Gremio v Figueirense, Gremio @3/10 Closing Blanace: £8.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Re: Short Priced Patents Rather than start yet another thread I've continue with this one but with an amended format. For this I will restart with a £10 outlay using Bet365. The main change is from trebles to patents but I'm also going to increase the staking. The purpose of this GH for me was to try to reach a £200 balance in 50 bets. To do that I needed the combined odds to be at least 1.50 while staking 1/8th of my balance. All well and good with a treble as with minimum odds per selection @1.20 the combined treble would pay 1.73, well above what is required. With accumulators though there is always the one that lets you down so I've decided to change that. In the event of a losing selection I want something bank so I've looked at the two alternatives using 3 selections and this is what I have found based on a £10 outlay for the first bet: WinnersOdds1.20Outlay£10.00Stake%12.5%3LinesLine CostStakeReturnProfitYieldTreble1£1.25£1.25£2.16£0.9172.8%Trixie4£0.31£1.24£1.87£0.6351.2%Patent7£0.18£1.19£1.64£0.4537.8% So a Trixie fits in nicely too. Keep in mind this is minimal odds and mostly the odds will be more than 1.20 on at least one of the selections. Where it obviously falls down like the treble is on that one that lets you down. Three quarters of your lines are wiped out so you are going to get little more than 25% returned. The Patent on this ocassion would ensure just under half of your stake returned. WinnersOdds1.20Outlay£10.00Stake%12.5%2LinesLine CostStakeReturnProfitYieldTreble1£1.25£1.25£0.00-£1.25-100.0%Trixie4£0.31£1.24£0.45-£0.79-64.0%Patent7£0.18£1.19£0.65-£0.54-45.1% Bearing in mind that over 50 bets, 150 selections, this is bound to happen more often than not I am inclinded to use the Patent. But the yield is not enough as already pointed out. So I had two alternatives- increase the minimum odds or increase the staking. Increasing the odds would ristrict me more which I don't want to do as there will be days when I struggle enough to find 3 selections depending on the card. And hopefully I will never have 3 selections at the very minimal so that may make up for the shortfall. I've decided though to increase the staking to 20% from 12.5%. This makes a big difference. Even at overall odds of 1.38 staking 20% of the balance would take 41 bets to reach £200- all being winners of course. That isn't going to happen but hopefully with the odds mostly being increased as opposed to minimum and with nearly 50% stake returned with 1 losing bet it might go along way to helping be get towards my goal. A brief overview of this GH then. Outlay: £10.00 Bookie: Bet365 Bet Type: Patent Selection odds: 1/5 to 1/2 Staking: 20% of Balance Frequency: 1 bet per weekday, 2 bets per day at weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Re: Short Priced Patents Opening Blanace: £10.00 Round 1, Bet 1 £1.96 Birmingham v Coventry, Birmingham (0) @1/5 Brondby v AC Horsens, Brondby @7/20 Kaiserslautern v 1860 Munich, Kaiserslautern (0) @1/4 Closing Blanace: £8.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 4, 2008 Author Share Posted November 4, 2008 Re: Short Priced Patents Statistics Outlay: £10.00 Profit: -£0.92 Next Bet(s) Opening Blanace: £9.08 Round 1, Bet 2 STAKE: £1.75 Rangers v Dundee Utd, Rangers @3/10 Barcelona v Basel, Barcelona -1EH @1/3 Roma v Chelsea, Chelsea @4/9 Closing Blanace: £7.33 Last Bet PROFIT: -£0.92 Birmingham 0:1 Coventry, Birmingham (0) @1/5 Brondby 4:3 AC Horsens, Brondby @7/20 Kaiserslautern 0:0 1860 Munich, Kaiserslautern (0) @1/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 5, 2008 Author Share Posted November 5, 2008 Re: Short Priced Patents Statistics Outlay: £10.00 Profit: -£2.67 Next Bet(s) Opening Balance: £7.33 Round 1, Bet 3 STAKE: £1.40 Arsenal v Fenerbahce, Arsenal @2/7 Dynamo Kiev v FC Porto, Dynamo Kiev or Draw @2/7 Real Madrid v Juventus, Real Madrid 0,-0.5AH @77/200 Closing Balance: £5.93 Last Bet PROFIT: -£1.75 Rangers 3:3 Dundee Utd, Rangers @3/10 Barcelona 1:1 Basel, Barcelona -1EH @1/3 Roma 3:1 Chelsea, Chelsea @4/9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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