Testing a greyhound lay system

[Deviation]

Hi. I think I've found a lay selection method, but can't be sure yet. The selections produce a very good yield over 262 bets/60 days, based on the betfair price at the scheduled off with lay odds no greater than 8.0. My problem is how to be sure? I only have 60 day's worth of prices available but imagine I would need a year's worth? Betfair's historical data doesn't show the price available at a particular time, only a range of prices. And the Fracsoft data is going to cost a fortune for a year's worth. Are there any tricks I can use, such as using average Adrian Massey odds, or are the live Betfair prices the only way to go? Can I get away with testing only another 3 months to be certain? Do I just need to prove statistical certainty, or will there be other surprises in store? If I do need the data, does anyone have a year's worth of betfair prices captured for BAGS races that they'd be happy to send me? I have a .csv (Excel) file with all the race results from Jan 2006 to Oct 2008 from http://www.thedogs.co.uk/ if that's any use to you, although the trainer and race start time are missing at the moment. Maybe we could pool resources and buy the Fracsoft data between us? The official price for a year's worth of BAGS races is about £450!! Thanks.

[Matthew]

Re: Testing a greyhound lay system Hi, You can find out the last price available to traded before the off by using the scheduled start time and the in play flag. It's not perfect but it might get you close. I am a little confused though - you say you already have the betfair price at the scheduled off but then ask for help finding out the best price available at the "time". To what "time" are you referring?