Rushian's Attacking Form

[Rushian]

Hello all! This is my very first Glory Hunt so go easy on me! I have been trying to develop some ratings based on the recent attacking form of teams in the English Premiership, Championship, League One and Two, and translate these ratings to probabilities of Home Win / Draw / Away Win. The results have been encouraging and now that November is here and the teams have more or less settled down, I've decided to start putting the picks up on this thread to monitor its performance. The data come from the football-data website (including the odds used). There will be lots and lots of bets and I will use the format used in my other thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/statistical-football-prediction-model-2008-a-70965/. If things go according to plan, I expect a strike rate of 35-40% with average odds of more than 3.00 First picks will go up as soon as the odds are available from the website above. Wish me luck! I'll definitely need it! :hope

[Rushian]

Re: Rushian's Attacking Form A quick refresh meant that the data are now in and the picks are out... Here goes:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
1	E0	1/11/2008	Chelsea	Sunderland	A	10	21.00	Bet365	P	0.00
2	E0	1/11/2008	Everton	Fulham	A	10	5.80	VC Bet	P	0.00
3	E0	1/11/2008	Man United	Hull	D	10	7.00	Bet365	P	0.00
4	E0	1/11/2008	Middlesbrough	West Ham	A	10	4.20	VC Bet	P	0.00
5	E0	1/11/2008	Stoke	Arsenal	A	10	1.45	Gamebookers	P	0.00
6	E0	1/11/2008	Tottenham	Liverpool	H	10	3.65	Bwin	P	0.00
7	E0	1/11/2008	West Brom	Blackburn	H	10	2.55	VC Bet	P	0.00
8	E1	1/11/2008	Bristol City	Reading	H	10	2.75	Bet365	P	0.00
9	E1	1/11/2008	Burnley	Norwich	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
10	E1	1/11/2008	Cardiff	Wolves	A	10	2.80	Bet365	P	0.00
11	E1	1/11/2008	Crystal Palace	Sheffield Weds	A	10	4.33	Blue Square	P	0.00
12	E1	1/11/2008	Doncaster	Swansea	A	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
13	E1	1/11/2008	Ipswich	QPR	H	10	2.30	Interwetten	P	0.00
14	E1	1/11/2008	Preston	Southampton	A	10	4.75	Blue Square	P	0.00
15	E1	1/11/2008	Watford	Blackpool	A	10	4.00	Bet365	P	0.00
16	E2	1/11/2008	Cheltenham	Leeds	H	10	4.50	Bet365	P	0.00
17	E2	1/11/2008	Huddersfield	Crewe	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
18	E2	1/11/2008	Leicester	Bristol Rvs	A	10	5.50	Bet365	P	0.00
19	E2	1/11/2008	Oldham	Yeovil	H	10	1.67	Stan James	P	0.00
20	E2	1/11/2008	Scunthorpe	Swindon	A	10	5.50	Bet365	P	0.00
21	E2	1/11/2008	Stockport	Carlisle	A	10	4.00	Bet365	P	0.00
22	E2	1/11/2008	Walsall	Northampton	A	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
23	E3	1/11/2008	Bournemouth	Chesterfield	A	10	2.75	Sportingbet	P	0.00
24	E3	1/11/2008	Bradford	Barnet	A	10	6.00	Bet365	P	0.00
25	E3	1/11/2008	Brentford	Rochdale	A	10	3.25	Bet365	P	0.00
26	E3	1/11/2008	Dag and Red	Accrington	H	10	1.83	Bet365	P	0.00
27	E3	1/11/2008	Exeter	Chester	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
28	E3	1/11/2008	Grimsby	Darlington	H	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
29	E3	1/11/2008	Lincoln	Port Vale	A	10	4.00	Bet365	P	0.00
30	E3	1/11/2008	Morecambe	Aldershot	A	10	2.90	Gamebookers	P	0.00
31	E3	1/11/2008	Notts County	Bury	A	10	2.85	Bwin	P	0.00
32	E3	1/11/2008	Shrewsbury	Luton	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
33	E0	2/11/2008	Bolton	Man City	H	10	3.25	William Hill	P	0.00
34	E1	2/11/2008	Derby	Nott'm Forest	A	10	5.50	Bet365	P	0.00
35	E0	3/11/2008	Newcastle	Aston Villa	A	10	2.60	Bwin	P	0.00
36	E1	3/11/2008	Birmingham	Coventry	A	10	6.00	Bet365	P	0.00

Forgot to mention that for now I'll be using level stakes (10 pts) with a starting bank of 1000 pts.