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Nuts on River - how much to bet?


Jaded

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PokerStars Game #21562973610: Tournament #116136692, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level I (10/20) - 2008/10/28 10:58:43 ET Table '116136692 62' 4-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: JadedJ (1600 in chips) Seat 2: wikingerODIN (1326 in chips) Seat 3: gtv1974 (1430 in chips) Seat 4: 0cobra0 (1644 in chips) wikingerODIN: posts small blind 10 gtv1974: posts big blind 20 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JadedJ [9s Ts] 0cobra0: folds JadedJ: raises 40 to 60 wikingerODIN: calls 50 gtv1974: calls 40 *** FLOP *** [9h Td 8c] wikingerODIN: checks gtv1974: checks JadedJ: bets 120 wikingerODIN: calls 120 gtv1974: folds *** TURN *** [9h Td 8c] [5d] wikingerODIN: checks JadedJ: bets 280 wikingerODIN: calls 280 *** RIVER *** [9h Td 8c 5d] [Tc] wikingerODIN: checks Any way to get some chips here?

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Re: Nuts on River - how much to bet? I agree that he looks like his missed a draw. In which case he's unlikely to put anymore money into the pot. Hence I'd put in a small bet in the hope he either reads weakness and shoves, or calls just to see what you had. Say about 120-150 chips to make it worthwhile you showing your cards.

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Re: Nuts on River - how much to bet? I'm not so sure he's missed his draw, the call of 280 on the turn was a bit much. If he was drawing even with an open ended draw he may have folded that. My guess is he holding J Q and flopped the straight an is trying to slow play you. Bet 160 and push over the top of his reraise.

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Re: Nuts on River - how much to bet?

I'm not so sure he's missed his draw, the call of 280 on the turn was a bit much. If he was drawing even with an open ended draw he may have folded that. My guess is he holding J Q and flopped the straight an is trying to slow play you. Bet 160 and push over the top of his reraise.
Agree with AJ here, I put him on JQ. He was happy to just keep calling you, His put in 450 of his 1326 just to see if he gets the draw? I reckon you bet around 250-300, He re-raised all-in....and bang.
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Re: Nuts on River - how much to bet? I would shove all-in. He's either:

  • Flopped the straight
  • Drawing to the straight
  • Flopped top pair and trying to keep control of pot

If you think those scenarios are 15%, 60%, 25% likely, then 15% of the time he is going to call whatever, 25% of the time he will call a half pot bet, and 60% he is calling nothing, then it is definitely +EV to shove your chips in for the 15% of the time you get paid off. Pot is 980, so 25% of time you will get another 490 off him (490 x 0.25 = avg 123 chips per hand). 15% of time you will get another 966 chips off him (960 x 0.15 = avg 144 chips per hand)

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