Great Leighs (eve) 23/10/08

[fintron]

6.20 Hallings Overture is running the opener tomorrow night and I could do with another 28/1 win from him. I was fortunate enough to nap this one in August when he coasted home over course and distance and I was pleasantly surprised how well he ran that day under Richard Kingscote. 10f is his optimum trip and all of his wins have come on polytrack, so it wasn't a great surprise that he flopped next time out on the turf at Bath. On his last run he was back on the AW at Kempton but he started from a bad draw and although ridden to take up second 2f out, weakened inside the final stages of that 12f. Thus, the drop back to 10f tomorrow may suit. He is 5 lbs above his last winning mark but only 1 lb above his highest ever winning mark. This is only a class 6 affair, it won't take much winning and he is infact only one of two that bring winning three figure form to the table. The fact he is top weight is a positive bearing in mind this is an AW handicap (another top weight won tonight with the Italian horse at massive odds at Kempo). Its all about catching him on one of his good days but Kingscote is booked and he's as a recent CD winner he isn't without hope.

[fintron]

Re: Great Leighs (eve) 23/10/08 The 8.20 is the staying handicap and Kritzia is interesting. Henry Cecil's horse hacked up over course and distance on her previous AW outing. She has since disappointed on turf under a penalty, but the return to a faster surface should suit here. A 9 lb increase since her last win means she isn't a certainty though and Silk Hall, after a decent win at Wolv recently, could be the danger. However, the latter is 7/4 at the minute and with a penalty on his back I prefer the claims of Kritzia EW instead. She could be raring to go again after a little break. The last race on the card (9.20) looks quite competitive. Pension Policy was a good winner over CD last time out but a 6 lb penalty means his price at 13/8 looks far too short for this handicap. There could be value in looking elsewhere. Jollyhockeysticks is a CD winner and is dropping in the handicap but a strike rate of 1-20 doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence. Of more interest could be top weight Wikaala who was only 2 lengths off Pension Policy LTO. At the revised weights Marcus Tregoning's runner could easily reverse the form (conceded 8 lbs LTO but receives weight today because of Pension Policy's penalty). At 7/1 he's backable each-way.