sport guy Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites- Ended. yes how bad was villareal and chelsea cost me as well mate but when 6-3-1 on h2h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites- Ended. cant wait to see u back mate good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites- Ended. Thanks Sports Guy. I'll start the new thread tomorrow with the bank included. Yes it just seemed like one of those days. The two "bankers" in the Premieship both drawing 0:0 was something I doubt most people would predict but these things happen. Villarreal have been faltering a little but after watching Valladolid get hammered by Barca and with 5 straight defeats away I never saw that one coming. A decent day to with the h2h thread. Keep it going as its still in good profit and doing well. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites- Ended. Great job aphobos, will be watching your new thread! Followed you and you've helped me triple my money :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites- Ended. Great, I'm glad you won some money along the way.:ok I've had a bit of a rethink. Although I want to introduce a bank there is reallly no reason to start a new thread to do it. So I'll just keep this one going till the end of the year if I can. My plan is from today onwards to have a virtual bank. 50% of any profit will go into that virtual bank and won't be reused for betting. I hope in this way to protect some of the profit, if there is any. I'll post the first bet of the day in an hour or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites Best of luck. I think with the run of winners you had earlier a loss or two is statistically ok, though its irritating when they came together. Hopefully your new approach will produce a slower but steadier method of bulding up a nice profit :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites I think you are right. I knew the run couldn't last forever but it was a shock to get two in the same day. As you said though statistically it is ok. One loser a week on average should still provide steady profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites lets get them mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites I hope so Sport Guy. :hope A quick word about the virtual bank and its purpose. I never rest easy even if things are going well because I know days like yesterday happen. That wiped out all this week and a part of last week. So I have introduced the virtual bank to protect some profit if it comes. In this way by setting myself goals I can rest easier if I achieve them. Goal 1 will be to bank my outlay of £11.98. If I can do this then I know no matter how it goes thereafter I will not end in loss because the bank cannot go down and I will have protected my outlay. If I can achieve that then I will set another goal after.The posts will now look a little different but in essence they are the same. Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 0% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£43.97 Bank: £0.00 Total: +£43.97 Next Bet Opening Balance: £55.95 Round 1, Bet 44 DATE: 23/11/2008 13:00 GMT LEAGUE: German 2.Bundesliga MATCH: Freiburg v Koblenz SELECTION: Freiburg @ 2/5 STAKE: £13.99 Closing Balance: £41.96 Last Bet Villarreal 0:3 Valladolid, Villarreal @ 4/9 -£18.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites Another losing bet. That is 3 in a row now which is quite incredible. I'll have to see if I can dig out a winner later or not only will this weeks profits be wiped out but last weeks also. :eek I'll post my other bet later and hope for better luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Short Priced Favourites Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 0% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£29.98 Bank: £0.00 Total: +£29.98 Next Bet Opening Balance: £41.96 Round 1, Bet 45 DATE: 23/11/2008 16:30 GMT LEAGUE: Danish SAS Ligaen MATCH: Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus SELECTION: Copenhagen @ 3/10 STAKE: £10.49 REASONING: Copenhagen top the league at the moment and have a 6-1-0 at home. In all competitions they are unbeaten in 7 matches winning the last 3. The only points dropped at home were in a goalless draw with OB. They entertain AGF who have a 1-1-5 on the road. AGF are very strong at home with a record similar to the hosts but have not been good on the road so far. Closing Balance: £31.47 Last Bet Freiburg 1:1 Koblenz, Freiburg @ 2/5 -£13.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles The first post has been updated with all the results so far from 5 weeks of betting. Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 13.14% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£31.56 Bank: £1.57 Total: +£33.13 Next Bet Opening Balance: £43.54 Round 1, Bet 46 DATE: 24/11/2008 20:00 GMT LEAGUE: English Premiership MATCH: Wigan Athletic v Everton SELECTION: Everton or Draw @ 1/2 STAKE: £10.88 REASONING: I think these two are very similar in that they are robust, physical sides lacking the flair of the top 4. Both are organised and as such difficult to break down so it should be a very tight affair. For that reason covering two of three outcomes for me is as good as it gets at decent value- the maximum odds for this GH anyway. Also Everton have not lost this fixture in the last 5 winning 3 and drawing the other 2. Both sides have gathered more points away from home this season which is an unusual scenario but its Everton's away form that given a little confidence here. They have taken 13 points from a possible 18 on the road. The points dropped were at Arsenal and Wigan who are both sitting just ahead of them in the table at the moment. Wigan have struggled at home taking only 5 points from a possible 18. The highlight came in the 2:1 win over Man City but since then they have failed to score at home in 3 matches- 0:1 Boro, 0:4 Villa and 0:0 Stoke. It is just 1 win in the last 7 Premiership outing for Wigan and that was at Fratton Park just after Harry Rednapp left. Closing Balance: £32.65 Last Bet Copenhagen 2:1 AGF Aarhus, Copenhagen @ 3/10 +£3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 13.14% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£20.67 Bank: £1.57 Total: +£22.25 Next Bet Opening Balance: £32.65 Round 1, Bet 47 DATE: 25/11/2008 19:45 GMT LEAGUE: Champions League MATCH: Bayern Munich v Steaua Bucharest SELECTION: Bayern Munich @ 3/10 STAKE: £8.16 REASONING: As the group stages near their end the outcomes become even harder to predict due to the goals required. Ideally you want a strong home team needing all 3 points against an inferior side. Not the case here because Klinsman said himself that Bayern plan to get the point they need here. That is a concern but really I cannot think Bayern will play for the draw at home on the back of such a strong recent run. Bayern are flying at the moment in all competitions and have taken themselves within 3 points of the top spot in the Bundesliga as a result. I feel they will want to secure their place in the last 16 here without having to worry about the last match so that they can continue their league progress. They had a very good win over Fiorentina at home so it is in their armoury to win comfortably here. Steaua are struggling domestically and have not won a match in two months but it also has to be said they have only suffered 3 defeats in among a string of draws. 2 of those defeats came at the hands of Lyon on his competition but they put up a good fight in both matches. Only a win here realistically would keep their European season alive which I cannot see happening. Closing Balance: £24.49 Last Bet Wigan Athletic 1:0 Everton, Everton or Draw @ 1/2 -£10.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles look home mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 26, 2008 Author Share Posted November 26, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles look home mate Yes a sigh of relief as it took a while for the breakthrough. Most of the games were predictable last night fortunately- Arsenal and Real Madrid wins in particular. Today is alot more difficult. I'm really not sure what I am going to take but will post later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 26, 2008 Author Share Posted November 26, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 23% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£21.90 Bank: £2.80 Total: +£24.59 Next Bet Opening Balance: £33.88 Round 1, Bet 48 DATE: 26/11/2008 19:45 GMT LEAGUE: Champions League MATCH: Bordeaux v Chelsea SELECTION: Draw or Chelsea @ 1/5 STAKE: £8.47 REASONING: Like alot of the games today both sides have something to play for and as a result we could see alot of draws. Here I have the feeling that it could be a low scoring draw. Bordeaux though really will need 3 points here if they are to progress. It is probable Roma could take all 3 points tonight but even if they do not they would not fancy having to go to Rome on the last day possibly needing to win by 3 clear goals to qualify. It is essential they take the win here. With that reasoning I am surprised to read that Blanc will take a defensive approach. It could be reasoned that it is more important to safeguard a point than risk losing 3 but I would have thought he'd have taken the chance here- he may well be bluffing though. He said in his conference that they have looked at the point CFR Cluj tooked with a tight defensive display and look to do the same here. As Chelsea are usually solid defensively too I can see both sides cancelling each other out. But Chelsea in my opinion even with the likes of Carvalho, Deco and Essien missing still have more quality. They haven't done great away from home so far in the Champions League but here I think they are capable of snatching something- possibly a 1:0. In the Premiership they have 7 straight wins and I really do not see them losing this game so I have covered both options with minimal odds. Closing Balance: £25.41 Last Bet Bayern Munich 3:0 Steaua Bucharest, Bayern Munich @ 3/10 +£2.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 30% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£22.74 Bank: £3.64 Total: +£26.39 Next Bet Opening Balance: £34.72 Round 1, Bet 49 DATE: 27/11/2008 17:00 GMT LEAGUE: UEFA Cup MATCH: CSKA Moscow v Lech Poznan SELECTION: CSKA Moscow @ 4/11 STAKE: £8.68 REASONING: CKSA Moscow over the past seasons since winning this trophy in 2005. At home they are usually strong having only lost once there in the UEFA Cup- to Marseille 2 years ago. This season they have been in blistering form cuffing both Deportivo La Coruna and Feyenoord while scoring 3 times against each. Of all the games today this one looks to have the biggest gulf between the two sides. Lech Poznan are in good form themselves domestically and not too bad in Europe either. They knocked out Austra Vienna and Grasshoppers with ease to get to the group stages and started with a creditable draw at home to Nancy. They will provide stiff opposition and no doubt try to hold out for the draw here but I think the form CSKA are in will see them through. CSKA lost as the weekend in the league away but previously hammered a very good Kazan side, who currently top the league, at home 4:0. With momentum I think there is a good chance of the home win here. Closing Balance: £26.04 Last Bet Bordeaux 1:1 Chelsea, Draw or Chelsea @ 1/5 +£1.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted November 27, 2008 Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Hey Aphobos. Just read the entire thread, really good going. The virtual bank is great idea, one that I will definately think of using myself. Best of luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Thanks mate and best of luck with your own thread which is going well too. :ok I just wish I had introduced the bank earlier. After testing some data though I have found I would actually be worse off at this stage. Its probably better to balance it or you can end up with only a small balance to play with. When I try this again I'll bank when I reach a certain profit, probably equal to outlay, and then not bank when it drops below that. I managed to get 2 correct scores in the Blue Square CL competition which entitles me to a free £5 bet. So I will play it here even though it is not technically a short price. Round 1, Bet 50 DATE: 27/11/2008 20:00 GMT LEAGUE: UEFA Cup MATCH: Hamburg v Ajax SELECTION: Hamburg @ 8/11 STAKE: £5.00 (Free Bet Token) REASONING: Hamburg for me have not been as good since losing Van der Vaart but are still a capable side. At home in the Bundesliga they have won 6 and drawn 1 without defeat. This is their first home game of the group stages but in UEFA competitions they also have a good home record. With their strength at home I think they are worth backing here. Ajax are very unpredictable like alot of the top Dutch sides at moment with the exception of AZ. They have had mixed fortunes on the road and look a bit nervy at the moment. They did compete well at Villa Park but still lost 1:2 and lost 0:2 to AZ at the weekend. They are capable of taking at least a point here but will find it very hard at a difficult place to visit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 44% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£24.32 Bank: £5.22 Total: +£29.55 Account: £41.53 Next Bet Opening Balance: £36.30 Round 1, Bet 50 DATE: 28/11/2008 17:00 GMT LEAGUE: German 2.Bundesliga MATCH: Kaiserslautern v Alemannia Aachen SELECTION: Kaiserslautern or draw @ 2/9 STAKE: £9.08 REASONING: To be honest this is not the bet I wanted to take on. I'd rather take another game from another league but all the football looks so tight today. On top of that I'd much rather be taking draw no bet at better odds as I think it is a game Kaiserslautern will win but that is not on offer either- that is the problem with sticking to one bookie. But after looking at all else this seemed to be the best option for this GH so I have taken it in the end. This game should be close in theory as they are closely matched at the moment with the away side possibly in better recent form. Both though are very strong at home so there is an advantage for the home side here. I've seen both play recently. I backed Kaiserslautern here 2 weeks ago and they easily overcame Rockstock 6:0 with a really home display. 2 weeks prior to that Aachen lost me money with a horrible performance at home in which they lost 0:2 to a superior RW Ahlen side. I hope they play like that again tonight. I did also take Aachen 3 weeks ago when they beat Osnabruck 3:1 but that was a very flattering scoreline. I do feel that although on results Aachen are better at the moment in terms of play it is Kaiserslautern who are the strongest and if both play like I have seen them lately then Kaiserslautern have a right good chance. Closing Balance: £27.23 Last Bet CSKA Moscow 2:1 Lech Poznan, CSKA Moscow @ 4/11 +£3.16 Hamburg 0:1 Ajax, Hamburg @ 8/11 £5 FREE BET LOST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 52% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£25.33 Bank: £6.23 Total: +£31.56 Account: £43.55 Next Bet Opening Balance: £37.31 Round 1, Bet 51 DATE: 29/11/2008 17:00 GMT LEAGUE: German Bundesliga MATCH: Hoffenheim v Arminia Bielefeld SELECTION: Hoffenheim @ 2/5 STAKE: £9.33 REASONING: Definitely the surprise package so far this season in the Bundesliga is Hoffenheim who at the moment top the table by 3 points over Levekusen and Bayern who meet today- something has to give. This is the perfect opportunity to increase the lead over one or both of the chasers. At home Hoffenheim have taken 19 points from a possible 21 points which is unmatched by any other side in this league. They are on a very strong run at the moment winning the vast majority of their matches. Its a different story for Bielefeld who have yet to record an away win but on the plus side they have only lost 3 of their 7 away matches. They are hard to break down when they go on the road and have taken more draws than defeats. This will make it a very tight game depending on how long they hold out. Closing Balance: £27.98 Last Bet Kaiserslautern 1:1 Aachen, Kaiserslautern or draw @ 2/9 +£2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles How It Going Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles @Sport Guy- Its going OK at the moment mate but even with short odds the games are a little tighter than I would like. I am taking the same team as you tonight. :hope Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 68% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£27.20 Bank: £8.10 Total: +£35.29 Account: £47.27 Next Bet Opening Balance: £39.18 Round 1, Bet 51 DATE: 29/11/2008 19:30 GMT LEAGUE: Italian Serie a MATCH: Juventus v Reggina SELECTION: Juventus @ 2/7 STAKE: £9.79 REASONING: Two weeks ago Reggina went away to Udinese have lost all 6 of their matches on the road in the league and won. It was a fantastic result and they followed that up with a home win over Atalanta. Its a good little run but I feel it could end tonight. Juve come into the game having lost at Inter in the league and a decent draw in St Petersbourg. That is back to back games without a win so I feel they will get back to winning ways here to put pressure on both Milan sides. Until defeat at Inter they were on a strong on and here is where they can pick that back up again. Closing Balance: £29.38 Last Bet Hoffenheim 3:0 Arminia Bielefeld, Hoffenheim @ 2/5 +£3.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles wow watching the juventus game on tv and the rain and snow look so bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles wow watching the juventus game on tv and the rain and snow look so bad I'm watching too. I just hope the game finishes. The weather seems to be getting worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles well done mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles Cheers Sport Guy. :ok Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 79% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£28.59 Bank: £9.50 Total: +£38.09 Account: £50.07 Next Bet Opening Balance: £40.57 Round 1, Bet 53 DATE: 30/11/2008 11:30 GMT LEAGUE: Dutch Eredivisie MATCH: Ajax Amsterdam v Utrecht SELECTION: Ajax Amsterdam @ 2/7 STAKE: £10.14 REASONING: Ajax have been faultless at home so far with 6 wins from 6 and they play Utrecht here who have taken only 4 points from a possible 18 on the road. Ajax have won the last 5 meetings and are looking very strong at the moment. They are chasing AZ and NAC at the moment and with PSV drawing at Heerenveen I expect Ajax to take full advantage here. Closing Balance: £30.43 Last Bet Juventus 4:0 Reggina, Juventus @ 2/7 +£2.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles I'm probably going to regret this. 3 losing bets this week if I include the free bet I had. I opposed Ajax at Hamburg and they won. Today I backed Ajax and they failed to win. The other loser was when I backed Everton and they lost. With this last bet of the week I am opposing Everton. After this bet I am going to reduce the number of bets I place starting with the new week. Looking at the stats I think it may help in the profit making but only time will tell. I'll explain why in after this game is over. Goal 01: Bank outlay of £11.98 Goal Progress: 79% Complete Outlay: £11.98 Profit: +£18.45 Bank: £9.50 Total: +£27.29 Account: £39.93 Next Bet Opening Balance: £30.43 Round 1, Bet 54 DATE: 30/11/2008 15:00 GMT LEAGUE: English Premiership MATCH: Tottenham Hotspur v Everton SELECTION: Tottenham Hotspur (0) @ 4/9 STAKE: £7.61 REASONING: If Everton play like they did on Monday then they won't score. Spurs have been on a great run of late beating the likes of Liverpool and Man City as well as that great draw at the Emirates. Closing Balance: £22.82 Last Bet Ajax Amsterdam 1:1 Utrecht, Ajax Amsterdam @ 2/7 -£10.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphobos Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted December 1, 2008 Share Posted December 1, 2008 Re: Short Priced Singles hey mate how it going im bit like u i got to stay away from nhl,nba,nfl and just bet on the h2h games i found this sport site that has no bet draw so going to put money in to that today odds might be lower but if sum teams draw get my money back so till then take care Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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