The Draws League

[Guest Brightboy Dim]

This is a spin-off from luckycraiguk's thread: "Their are numerous post about differing........." It follows up on Joe's suggested system where we bet on a draw when the away team has 3 away wins from their last 4, which is interesting enough to deserve its own thread.

Now of course whilst this system appears to be statistically significant this does not mean that the underlying hypothesis behind it (good away sides are less likely to lose but will happilly settle for a point) is the real cause. There could be a supurious hidden factor accounting for the 33% strike rate (expected 27%). If this is the case, then one could more readily expect things to go tits up from here on in. Another consideration is that it fails to work in other European leagues...

Good hypothesis, though. I've been thinking about draws lately, and wondering about the divergence between English strike rates and European ones. To begin with I thought it was simply because their leagues are smaller and the difference between the best and worst teams was much less - hence more draws. But that doesn't apply when you look within a limited odds band, as I looked between 2.00 and 3.00. Doing that gives us a level playing field. Even so, European draw rates are still higher. Within that band, 29% of all matches in England last season (all divisions) were draws. In Greece, it was 37%, Netherlands 36%, France 34%, Portugal 33%, Italy and Spain 32%. The odd man out is Germany with a shocking 22%, unexpectedly robbing England of yet another title. Frigging Germans got the towels down again... Putting my thoughts together with your hypothesis I will suggest another hypothesis: in England teams with a good away record in the last 4 games are quite likely to settle for a draw. But this mentality is the exception. Usually, you can expect teams to be going for the win right up to the final whistle. But what in England is a special-case condition is in Europe the usual condition. Nancy-boy continentals give up the fight easier than our hardy English lads... A second hypothesis: settling for a draw is something the Latin temperament is prone to. In colder climes, the mentality is more uncompromising....Hypothesis destroyed by Netherlands, which isn't the least bit Latin. Maybe free love and dope has an effect. Third hypothesis: The largest leagues (England, Germany) have the fewest draws. Hypothesis destroyed by Scottish league (29%), which isn't the least bit large.... Er,....

[Joe]

Re: The Draws League

when the away team has 3 away wins from their last 4

Should actually read, "at least 3 away wins from their last 4 away games." Mick has suggested that continental leagues are less robust because there are one or two sides which dominate. These will make up a sizeable proportion of the selected games and you can more readily expect them to go for another away win. I recall the Scottish Premiership failing for this reason. The German Budesliga fails, but Spain's La Liga is OK (although data sample is too small for confidence), perhaps because it is an equally competitive league as England. Taking Man U out of the equation (the only dominant English side in the last 10 years) does increase the yield but not significantly so. Leagues like Italy are influenced by match fixing and currently you will never get decent draw odds there. I focus on England also because the odds are about as competitive as they can be - all other leagues are less so (with regards odds value). The reason I developed the original hypothesis was because every ratings system I've investigated showed the highest percentage of draws (usually 30 to 31% which is about enough to break even) for moderately negative ratings (i.e. where the away team is stronger then the home team, but not hugely so, as for example Birmingham v Arsenal. Anyway, only time will tell. I personally I'm not going to use this just yet, I'll wait and see how this season finishes first. If and when I do, it would still form more of a sideline of bets, rather than my main focus, because you're not going to get rich quick with it (although I doubt there is any system that will permit that safely).

[Joe]

Re: The Draws League I would also add here that rather than reduce the number of selections by adding the "must have won last away game" criterion, simply add in games where the away side has won all 3 of their last 3 games. Yield on this is 7.4% (for 9 seasons and 354 matches). Of course, this means that you will be betting twice on this team, for this match and the next (unless you add in the above criterion), because whatever happens in this one, you will still have 3 away wins in the last 4 after it has been completed.

[Guest madmick]

style of play and referee I would suggest if you are looking at draw betting, you should consider the above two factors. If you look at the statistics you will see that some teams score more than (their) average at home and some teams do not. Likewise with goals conceded. It may be that certain teams like to play attacking football at home, and others are more concerned about concession of goals at home. Equally, the referee can have a big influence on games, maybe even big enough to affect, significiantly, the chance of a draw. Adding in these factors might either increase the strike rate, and/or the number of eligible games

[Osesame]

Re: style of play and referee and much more I agree regarding style of play and this is reflected in the results. The referee I tend to discount as the late awarding of a penalty etc can just as likely make a draw as lose a draw. Having studied draws for over two years I have reached the following conclusions. 1) Each league has to be treated as a separate entity. 2)The past two seasons results are the most useful for determining which teams to back as draws. 3) Do not necessarily discard a team because it does not draw very often.In the EPL system Arsenal has given 5 bets and 3 wins,stakes 6.75...return 13.74 at average odds. Study the past 2 seasons to find out if you can select when and why they draw. 4) When a new manager is appointed wait for a time to see if the draws still occur as before i.e. do they still occur mostly in home or away matches or both. 5) Promoted and relegated teams are a problem and can be very erratic. 6) Watch for teams improving in form they bcome more likely to draw away and vice-versa. 7) Non conformity in bookies odds i.e a wide range of home odds using Betbrain and or Tip-ex often shows up some of the most unlikely draws. 8) Use your head! i.e Aston Villa is now dropped from the EPl system at home except in special circumstances and subject to close scrutiny for away matches. 9) Do not follow any selection system blindly,adjust for teams with long injury lists etc. 10) Follow teams and compare the selections for those involved in a match.Trying to to select draws by match selection is not worthwhile. Please feel free to add your own ideas as the more info put forward the better.Treat it like a think tank,even the the most absurd ideas often have a use and may spark another train of thought that will be very useful.

[Guest bcrazy]

Re: style of play and referee and much more Hope its alright if I keep track of Joes system in here- dont want to start another draws thread.I wont do the whole update I normally do for systems just the W/L ratio and the matches that fit the criteria. So far: W/L: 1/1

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: style of play and referee and much more Best start a new one, makes it easier for people to see your system if they are interested in draw betting.