Newcastle 14/10/08

[fintron]

There aren't many handicaps today to have a crack at today on what looks another poor day of flat racing. This one will have to do!<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

3.20 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Newcastle

In the Raceform annual they say that a low draw is an advantage here when the going is soft or heavy so I've concentrated on those drawn low.

Cornus comes from stall 1 and although he was a decent third at Newmarket recently when he had Glasshoughton behind, he likes to come from off the pace and on this heavy ground I would personally prefer a front runner.

Steel Blue is drawn in stall 2 and could run a fair race. He is effective over 6 furlongs and notched up a double earlier in the season at Doncaster and Thirsk. He seems to go on any sort of ground and is likely to race more prominently than Cornus; his last win at Thirsk came when he made all. He ran a good race on his last race here when 4th to Ursis and he could have a chance running off his present mark.

Captain Macarry, drawn in 3, must be well thought of by connections and contested a listed race when last seen last year. However, returning from a 374-day break he may need the run here.

Next in the blocks is The Twelve Steps who finished a fair 3rd behind Van Bossed last year when with Paul Cole. He is now with Alan Swinbank, who does well around here (14-71 - 19.7 %). His son of Diktat confirmed his liking for soft ground when scoring over this distance at Thirsk recently and although he disappointed LTO at Leicester, he was up in class that day and lumped a 6 lb penalty on his back. He was held up towards the rear and running on soft ground could not get himself into the places (closely matched with Artsu), but prior to that, when he raced more prominently at Thirsk, when he tracked the leaders, he did manage to win. Although 8 lbs higher than his last win he's a lightly raced 3 yo and there could be more to come. Avontuur races from stall 5 and won on heavy ground at Ayr last time off a 4 lb lower mark. He had been in good form in the few races leading up to that run too, and 6f is no problem for him. He is another one that likes to race prominently and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him take this either. All in all I think The Twelve Steps is worth a stab at 12/1 (Blue Sq). He was very closely matched with Artsu at Leicester yet that rival is priced up at 15/2 today, even though it is perhaps worse off at the weights.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Newcastle 14/10/08 3.20 Avontuur has a great chance at th foot o trhe weights carrying 8-5. His formover G&D reads 21, On the occassion he won he carried 4lbs heavier then today and doesnt have the worst of draws (5), Cornus is another with as chance forgiving him for his previous runs and taking into consideration his outings over G&D which reads 231 this season and carried 9-10 to victory, Hasnt got the best of draws but looks one too watch. Advice Cornus 1 Point E/W & Avontuur 1 Point E/W or Win depending on price