DeadCert Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 Can the senior punters on here reveal what percentage of starting bank they win in a season/year? I am becoming far more disciplined in my punting and feel it is possible to double my bank over a year. Is this unrealistic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 probably not It depends on three things: 1) Your average stake size 2) Your yield 3) The number of bets you generate in a season/year Your stake size will depend on your yield and the average odds at which you bet, but 5% is a reasonable figure for many situations. At this level you need 20 bets to 'turn over' your bank once. Look at your yield, e.g. lets say it is 8.3% Thus to double your bank, i.e. make 100 units profit, you need to bet 1200 units, at 5 units per stake this would be 240 bets you would need in your season/year So, doubling your bank is very respectable, and probably quite ambitious, but certainly doable. Look at Pauly's system for example, he has made 4 times his bank and still going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 17, 2003 Share Posted February 17, 2003 Re: What profit are you boys making? Not unrealistic if you're are disciplined, although there are very few I believe who can actually acheive this safely year after year, because of the lack of discipline. A simple and approximate measure of your expected bank growth is simply your average yield (as a decimal) per bet multiplied by your stake size multiplied by the number of bets, all divided by your starting bankroll. Most punters can't beat a yield of 10% and frequently have no more than 250 bets each year. To double a starting bankroll of 100, stake size here would need to be 4 which I personally think is on the high side to minimise risk. For a level staking strategy with your bets averaging at evens, there'd be about a 7% chance of bankrupcy during 250 bets, but at odds of 4/1 this would rise to perhaps 35% (based on my simulations) Of course, you could adopt a % bank staking plan and my simulations suggests that you could go for a 3% stake size to target a doubling of bankroll. Naturally, you have almost no chance of going broke, but your chance of actually being in profit is 90% and 55% for evens and 4/1 betting respectively, whilst for the 4-point level stakes plan it is higher at about 93% and 65% respectively. [This is all for 250 bets, risks are obviosuly higher for more bets.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 Re: What profit are you boys making? A lot more if I could DISCIPLINE myself better(we totally agree on that Joe).Sometimes boredom sends me off to bet on hockey,tennis or golf.I know this is madness as I have very little knowledge of these sports and these bets munch away at the profit.I have also started some new systems and they have not started that well,but it is early days and low stakes on these. I think it is best to look at what you are doing and once every few weeks ask yourself if you are really confident with your bets,and if not why not. As you know I like to bet on draws and very often I get a run of 0-1 and 1-2 away wins but this is acceptable, if there were a lot of 3-0, 3-1 home wins I would be a lot more concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeadCert Posted February 18, 2003 Author Share Posted February 18, 2003 profit My Internet betting is pretty disciplined but still have a tendency to bet big CASH on the horses when I get a tip. Its harder to stay disciplined when you don't have a specific bank roll for betting as in my cash betting. Joe, if I use a fixed profits staking system what would I use as my stake in calculating the expected bank growth. I'm presuming average stake but wanted to check? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 stake size Your stake size should depend on the factors listed above A lot of professional gamblers will use 1 or 2% stakes when gambling on a 'line', i.e. a two horse race effectively where the odds would be 1.91 On that basis a stake where you are trying to win, on average something like 3% of your bank would be reasonable. Thus if you are betting at evens (on your average bet), the stake would be 3 units, if you are betting at 2/1 it would be 1.5 units and if you are betting 1/3 it would be 9 units etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 Re: stake size I'm presuming average stake but wanted to check?Yes. You'll need to know roughly what range of odds you back to make sure that your average stake size is close to what you want it to be. The simplest way to acheive this this is to look at a past record of betting (previous staking strategy doesn't matter here, all you need to know are the odds). Then assume that future betting will follow a similar range of odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 Dont forget luck It is an important factor in GAMBLING after all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 18, 2003 Share Posted February 18, 2003 Re: Dont forget luck Hopefully, with all the right system and betting strategies luck should be minimised as much as possible :b Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tito 10 Posted February 19, 2003 Share Posted February 19, 2003 Re: Dont forget luck Luck goes for and against you, and unless someone is a fool and betting 10% of bank per bet, bad luck isn't likely to cripple you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeadCert Posted February 19, 2003 Author Share Posted February 19, 2003 as gary player said... the more I practise, the luckier I get! Large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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