Wincanton 09/10

[stewartd14]

Have I expressed my delight at the return of the jumps yet :tongue2 Anyway, looks a decent card at Wincanton and I have tried to crack the 3 handicaps. Unfortunately, wont be able to update with prices, so bets will just be at SP. 3.30 College Ace 11 runners here, and I really do feel this favourite can be opposed. He came into form at the weekend, but the 7lb rise may just be too much in what is a better contest. Instead, I am looking for some EW value and the main bet comes from the Robeson yard. This gelding is now rated just 107 and gets in off a nice 11-9 here. His last victory came at Huntingdon over a similar distance off of 115, so he is 8lb below his last winning mark today. He is effective over both 2m 4f and 2m 6f, so I see no problems with the trip of 2m 5f today. Since the horse has left Phillip Hobbs to go to Mrs Robeson, he has taken a while to come to hand, but last time suggested to me as if this horse is ready to win. He tried to shoulder top weight, but could only get 3rd. I expect a better run now his handicap mark has dropped even futher. So, all in all, an attractive handicap mark, the right distance and the fact the horse is coming into form makes him a cracking bet at the 14/1 tissue. 14/1 tissue Savers Golden Duck - Twiston Davies horses have to be respected at this time of year. This one was brought down last time out, but Timmy Murphy is an eye catching jockey booking. Should go close. Meet The Legend - I am following this horse off a cliff as I am convinced he is going to get another victory at a big price.. He has shown he likes the longer trips and was unlucky when not getting round last time. Needs to brush up his jumping, but if he does he has the form to go close. Prices about 14/1, 5/1 and 8/1 respectively. :hope:ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Wincanton 8/10 4.05 Russian Flag This looks a competitive race on the face of it, but I worry about the horses having their 1st run of the season. This leads me to the Charlie Longsdon horse, who could just make a mockery of a tough race. To my eye, he looks a horse that is very capable of improving past what is an exposed bunch. The horse is very lightly raced at 5, and has only run 5 times, 4 of which were for Charlie Longsdon. After running with a lot of promise and credit, he was given an interesting handicap mark of 102, which obviously pleased connections. In a similar race to today's, he was given 11-12 but was smashed into 5/1 favourite from an opening 8/1. He was going well enough when brought down, but I do feel the cat was let out the bag so to speak. The connections obviously feel this horse has been given a lenient mark and he should be able to capitalise on it today. He carries 11-8 but in reality he should be a lot better than this bunch and he is capable of improving. I like the trainer, and this looks a bit of a job horse. Tissue is 11/2 :hope:ok