Horses To Watch

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

Juddmonte International Stakes, next Tuesday 3:00 @ York Tycoon will be running in this race (if weather suits) and its form makes for poor reading, but look at the horses it's been beaten by... Doyen Grey Swallow American Post Pearl of Love all are some of the best class A horses i can think of, and this race looks ordinary to me, nothing really stands out except maybe sulamani, but sulamani has been off form lately just like Tycoon, but i think the latter is about due a win and should produce on the day, hopefully priced around 9/1 on the day, so e-way betting methinks. would be interesting to see what other races this horse is entered in the future, hopefully it'll go handicapping and run off some good marks. bon apetit people :)

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Horses To Watch Hope you dont mind TK but thought id put your other find in here as well these entries must be significant, well spotted. SCROOBY BABY 2-y-o (13 Mar 2002) b f Current Owner: Paul J Dixon Mind Games (6.4f) - Lunar Music (Komaite (USA)(7.2f)) Current Trainer: J A Osborne (100,000gns) 3rd foal, half-brother to tough and top-class 2003 juvenile Milk It Mick; dam won three 5f sprints, including at 2 Entered in the following races :- 16 Aug 2004 2:30 (Five Day) at BRIGHTON, E.B.F./Alexander Catering Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Class F) 8 Sep 2004 1:40 (Five Day) at DONCASTER, £200000 St Leger Yearling Stakes Class 1 2 Oct 2004 2:55 (Five Day) at REDCAR, Betfair Two-Year-Old Trophy (Class 1) (Listed Race) 22 Oct 2004 3:05 (Five Day) at DONCASTER, DBS October Yearling Stakes (Class 1)

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

Horses To Watch SOMETHING (IRE) 2-y-o (13 Mar 2002) b c Current Owner: John Humphreys (turf Accountants) Ltd Trans Island - Persian Polly (Persian Bold(10.4f)) Current Trainer: T G Mills (100,000euros) 12th foal, half-brother to eight winners, most notably top-class sprinter Lake Coniston; dam a juvenile winner. runs tomorrow 5:40 Windsor top class breeding and a nice price paid, whats it doing in class D? running from stall 17 which is an advantage predicted around 8/1 but should see money coming for this one from the clever punter, so take a price and bet e/way. Entered in the following races :- 16 Aug 2004 5:40 (Four Day) at WINDSOR, European Breeders Fund Maiden Stakes (Class D) (tomorrow) 18 Aug 2004 5:25 (Four Day) at KEMPTON, Evening Standard Maiden Stakes (Class D) 18 Sep 2004 3:20 (Five Day) at NEWBURY, Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes Class 1 (Group 2) 1 Oct 2004 2:45 (Five Day) at NEWMARKET, Shadwell Stud Middle Park Stakes (Class 1) (Group 1) (Entire Colts)

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Horses To Watch It's in a class D because it's a maiden race & maiden races only go up to class D. Nothing to stop them chucking it in at the deep end but even the top trainers usually kick off in a maiden. This is the sire Trans Island's first crop of 2yo's, so far 18 different 2yo's have run winning 14 times & 8 placed from 52 runs, not a bad start. Trans Island won on most ground so no problem there, his sire is Selkirk who was a top class miler. This stable does not have a good record with first time out 2yo's, from 99 to 03 they had 3 win from 62 runs. Whatever it does tomorrrow I suspect this one will be better for the run. All the best, Rio.

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

Horses To Watch u seem to know ur stuff rio, thanks for the input, i'm an amateur only been betting for about 6 months lol

[Guest craiguk12000]

Horses To Watch Too late to put this now i know - but one of the maidens that i looked at won yesterday - 7/1 (Its called 'Graze On'). Its not a very good horse, but it finished behind a big odds on shot in its last run & yesterday was only an average maiden. Je Suise Belle ran well in the race (after a poor start) I have no details about it, but if anyone is interested, all the stuff will be on the racing post site.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Horses To Watch Cheers for that Craig, This horse runs in the 5.40 at Windsor and i think there are a few very intresting horses in this especially the Hannon newcomer and as TK has already mentioned above SOMETHING. BENEDICT 2-y-o (5 Apr 2002) b c Current Owner: The Queen Benny The Dip(USA) (12.0f) - Abbey Strand(USA) (Shadeed (USA)(7.7f)) Current Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute 8th foal, half-brother to several 3yo winners, also to 7f 2yo winner Right Approach, later useful over 8f as 3yo and a Group 1 winner as 4yo in UAE; dam an 8f 3yo winner Breeder: The Queen 4 Jun 2005 4:00 (Five Day) at EPSOM, Vodafone Derby Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) The derby entry obviously suggests Sir Michael has high hopes for this horse. Whatever happens in this race im sure it will throw up some nice horses to follow in the future. Cheers

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Horses To Watch I've been out today so I've not seen the Windsor race but reading the report it looks like a good performance FTO. A maiden win should be a shoo-in & it will be interesting to see where Terry Mills sends it next. It's a good thread this, looking at 2yo's & their breeding etc is like trying to see the picture on the jigsaw with very little of the pieces. A word about the value of entries is needed I think. The Mill Reef & Middle Park entries for Something could be taken as a sign that connections think the horse is useful. I've already said in an earlier post that the entries for Scrooby Baby to me mean very little, more & more of these 'sales' races are appearing, take the recent Weatherbys super sprint at Newbury. This was a £135000 guaranteed class B race, to enter the horse had to be sold at one of the listed sales in the entry conditions for under 40,000 guineas. These races are there to give the cheaper bought animal a chance to win a big prize for a small entry fee. This brings me to the entry for Benedict in next years Derby. To me this means very little, the entry conditions for the Derby are from an age long past, at one time the horse had to be entered at a very young age & if it wasn't you couldn't put it in later like you can now. To enter this years Derby cost an initial £295, at the first acceptance stage another £1,000 was to be paid, a final £2,500 was needed if it was decided to run. Two horses were suplemented this year at I believe at a cost of £75,000 each, what would you do with your horse, pay next to nothing & wait & see or wait & see & pay a small fortune? I'd like to add one to the list. The first race at Newbury last Friday was a 6f 2yo fillies maiden. The pace in the first half of the contest was not too quick but the final time was the second best on the card of the day. The winner Shanghi Lily is clearly useful but it's not this one I will be watching for it's the runner up. Ruby Wine ( 17 April 2002 ) bf Kayf Tara-Cribella(USA) ( Robellino (USA) ) The dam was fairly modest but won a couple on the aw. The sire Kayf Tara is the dual Ascot Gold cup winner from a strong staying line. Ruby Wine was doing all her best work late on under a non too forceful ride, another interesting thing is that a certain L Dettori was booked to ride but got stuck in traffic. Upped in trip this one should win a maiden with little bother & I will be interested to see how this one progresses. All the best, Rio.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Horses To Watch Excellent write up Rio and very informative you have an excellent knowledge of how the entries to big races work and classes etc.. I understand exactly what you are saying about entries held by a horse as youve explained. I know nowhere near as much as you about this sort of thing so please correct me if im wrong but a derby entry must mean that at least a trainer has some sort of a suspicion or knowledge that a horse is going to be decent ? But then again maybe not its hardly going to be any skin off the trainers nose a small entry fee the horse will probably make that from place money in the future. Anyway Benedict stayed on pretty well after tracking across into last from its low draw (3) and lost a lot of ground doing this. I think it stayed on to get about 7th, but will more than likely of been given a nice easy introduction to racing with a gentle ride and will maybe need a step up in trip. Something ran an excellent race and this will win easily in the future, more than likely at a pretty short price though. Thanks for all the info Rio, looks like weve found a few good ones to follow keep em coming. Cheers

[Guest Khartoum]

Entries & Stuff Didn't see any racing today so can't comment on it. Very interesting thread this. Firstly, agree with Whoneedsrio that entries for the big two year old races such as Royal Lodge, Middle Park, Lowther etc. would be more useful, as they are in the not too distant future, & it would seem that they must have been showing something at home to warrant them. I'd be interested to know the deadlines / cut-offs etc. Rio ? I know that in the last few Sundays RP Marten Julian has been touching on this subject. Looking at owners from say Stoute yard, the Weinstocks, Cheveley Park stud, Her Maj etc. they are not going to be too phased with a few paltry entry fees. Marten Julian was more interested in looking at when the smaller yards have one entered, which makes sense. Entries for the Derby - on looking through this year's Horses in Training for Stoute out of 27 colts that were named only 3 did not have an entry for next year's Derby. Two I'm looking forward to seeing again are Almendrados from Jeremy Noseda's & Given a Choice from James Given. Ain't got time at the moment but I'll try & give my reasons in the morning. All the best, Khartoum.

[Guest Khartoum]

Two Year Olds Firstly, Almendrados - In 2 year old guide, Jeremy Noseda said ' I've a lot of time for this filly, she's really nice.' & early in the season in Racing Post ' Great looking filly with a lot of quality, has scope to be a 3 year old & we want to do everything right by her.' I then saw her on her only run so far & Newmarket on Derby day, when she ran in a fair maiden. I'm no paddock judge but my cousin who I go with said she would definitely be a lot better for the run. She then opened at 9/2 to SP of 8/1 & ran as the drift suggested, she travelled well through the race but was never really asked for an effort by Eddie Ahern when the winner had flown & he was easy on her, looked like a nice introduction to me. On the race itself the winner Park Romance was subsequently not disgraced @ Royal Ascot & was then placed in a Group 3. The 2nd Bentleys Bush went on to win a maiden & has been placed twice in a Ascot nursery & then a listed race. The 4th All For Laura then went on to win a maiden. So fair form. The trainer has since said that she had a viral infection since debut & will need good or faster ground. Possibly ground the reason why it was pulled out last Saturday @ Newmarket. Entered Sandown Friday Maiden Chester Saturday Maiden Sept 25 Fillies Mile Group 1 Not running at Sandown must be due to the ground. I'll be keeping an eye out for it.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Entries & Stuff The conditions of race & the entry dates & any declaration dates are contained in the program book which the trainers etc get from Weatherby's. I take my racing seriously but not enough to invest in this sort of publication. Generally for the sort of races we are talking about the entries are made about two months before the event, if you go to the left on the Racing Post web site home page you can see the current big race list. Also the conditions of entry, costs & forfit stages can usually be seen in the race headings in the Post & in Raceform Update in the races to come section. I am back to work later this week but I await with interest to see if Almendrados runs at Sandown or Chester. The other one you mention, Given a choice is entered on Friday at Ayr in a class F 7f maiden. Scrooby Baby is entered at Ripon on Saturday in a class D 6f nursery off a mark of 75, this would look a little high to me at this stage, however we shall see. All the best, Rio.

[Guest Khartoum]

Two Year Olds Given A Choice - From 2 year old guide, Given said ' A very very nice horse, a really smashing looking colt & one of the best moving horses I've seen for some time. We do think a lot of him & have really high hopes.' From RP 22/4 ' Going to be a mid dist. prospect, so we won't be rushing him & I think he's a very exciting individual'. Only run once at Newmarket, it was nibbled at during the day on Betfair. Went off at 16/1 but it had drifted at times on Betfair to around 45/1. In the race itself, ran green early & was staying on very strongly at the end to finish 4th James Willoughby who was paddock watching for Racing UK said that he was suprised with the performance as he will definitely come on strongly for the race. Winner for John Gosden looked fairly useful & was a well backed favourite, but like the trainer said he wouldn't be rushing him & by all accounts he looked like he left lots to work on. Entered Ayr Friday Doncaster Group 2 Champagne Stakes Ascot Royal Lodge Group 2 20/8 Now entered for Dewhurst Group 1 Will obviously look more in depth at the race if & when they both run, but at present Given looks out of form. Cheers Rio, might keep an eye on those Post entries. All the best, Khartoum.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Two Year Olds KING´S ACCOUNT (USA) 2-y-o (13 May 2002) ch c Current Owner: Brian Yeardley Continental Ltd King Of Kings(IRE) (9.5f) - Fighting Countess(USA) (Ringside (USA)) Current Trainer: M Johnston (9,000gns, 2yo 15,000gns) 6th foal, half-brother to 3 winners including smart US 2yo Dawn Princess, stakes placed over 9f; dam smart multiple winner in US, half-sister to 3 winners including champion US 2yo filly Countess Diana Breeder: Barnett Enterprises An intresting horse that runs in the 2.20 at Ayr today, made a good debut finishing 2nd on GSft ground. Todays race is on Soft and that 2nd on GSft and the pedigree suggest it will handle the ground. This horse is out of King of Kings a soft ground winner which was sired by Sadlers Wells. Pedigree and form suggest theres only 2 horses in this race that will like the soft ground the other being Good Investment which didnt improve on its debut when 3 L behind Kings Account LTO hence its a 20/1 shot.

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

nice result well who could of prediced the 100/1 winner, nice 2nd place i'd say almost as good as the win itself, deffinately a horse to follow, i'd like to see how it would handle the all-weather given the opportunity. Treble.

[manckevin]

Horses To Watch One for Saturday, runs in the 5.05 at Sandown: GO SUPERSONIC 3-y-o (30 Jan 2001) b f Current Owner: Helena Springfield Ltd Zafonic(USA) (8.5f) - Shirley Superstar (Shirley Heights(12.3f)) Current Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute 8th foal, half-sister to top-class 3yo filly Lady Carla, winner of the Oaks; dam a 7f 2yo winner. Aren't those out of Zafonic better suited to firmer ground though? This could turn into a lay bet yet!

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Horses To Watch Same race as yours Kev aint got time to explain will do later Poetry N Passion out of a soft ground winner e/w price 20/1

[Guest Khartoum]

Re: Horses To Watch Almedrados - Entered Newmarket 27/8 7f Fillies Maiden Entered Goodwood 29/8 7f Group 3 Fillies Given A Choice - Entered Yarmouth 24/8 1 Mile D Maiden Entered Newmarket 27/8 7f D Maiden Given A Choice - If the cat wasn't out of the bag already ( as it was an eyecatching run on debut & must have gone into a few notebooks) in the Racing Post today Marten Julian talked up the fact that he's now been given an entry to the Dewhurst that costs £550, so he's obviously well thought of. Winner of his maiden Gosden's Windsor Knot won Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown yesterday, albeit on soft ground where possibly a couple of the other leading fancies didn't perform on it, but never the less a plus to the form of the maiden. All the best, Khartoum

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Horses To Watch Scooby Baby runs today in the 2.50 at Lingfield on the aw. It's a nursery & she's in on a mark of 75 & the trip is 7f. While she ran ok on the surface a couple of runs back I don't think the step up in trip will suit & she also has a wide draw. Sporting Odds are going 25/1 but even at this price I'm not tempted. Cheers, Rio.

[Guest Khartoum]

Re: Horses To Watch Both of mine to watch are missing Newmarket. Given A Choice entered Redcar Saturday night & also just been entered for Racing Post Trophy Group 1 towards the end of season. All the best, Khartoum.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Horses To Watch Couple of intrest in the 1:35 Kempton tommorow.... AMPELIO (IRE) 2-y-o (11 Feb 2002) ch c Current Owner: Mrs Sarah Al Maktoum Grand Lodge(USA) (9.6f) - Bordighera(USA) (Alysheba (USA)(11.3f)) Current Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute (800,000gns) 5th foal, brother to multiple 10f Group 1 winner Grandera (won over 7f at 2), half-brother to French 3yo winner Fifty Five; dam winning middle-distance stayer in France Breeder: Lael Stables Massive price tag , Suez only cost 480,000 gns so i think this one must be something special. ESQUIRE 2-y-o (8 Mar 2002) b c Current Owner: Godolphin Dubai Millennium - Esperada(ARG) (Equalize (USA)) Current Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor 2nd foal; dam champion 2yo filly in Argentina, winner of three starts in only season to race Breeder: Darley The horses out of Dubai Millenium have performed exceptionally well with a lot of first time winners, but it may not be good enough to beat AMPELIO Then the 3.15 Kempton LOYAL LOVE (USA) 2-y-o (11 May 2002) b/br f Current Owner: Godolphin Danzig(USA) (7.9f) - Always Loyal(USA) (Zilzal (USA)(8.5f)) Current Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor 4th foal, half-sister to a dual turf winner in US; dam a top-class filly, winne rof the French 1000 Guineas, half-sister to Key Of Luck, Group 3 juvenile winner, and Anabaa, winner of the July Cup as 4yo Breeder: Gainsborough Farm Llc This ones out of DANZIG - outstanding stallion, has superb record with 2yos at 5-7f, plenty of them precocious. Godolphins first time 2yos have been flying all season. These could be ones to follow after there runs tommorow, because the jocks wont be knocking them about FTO, especially if its worth 800,000gns. 3.45 Kempton LIGHT OF DUBAI (USA) 2-y-o (22 Feb 2002) b f Current Owner: Godolphin Gone West(USA) (8.1f) - A. P. Assay(USA) (A.P. Indy (USA)(10.4f)) Current Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor ($1,600,000) 2nd foal; dam a high-class performer in US as 4/5yo, half-sister to top-class US juvenile/3yo Came Home Breeder: John Toffan And Trudy McCaffery A lot there i know but theres some very well bred horses in there and id be suprised if they dont figure. Cheers:ok

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Horses To Watch The filly I put up to watch for Ruby Wine is in the 3.45 at Kempton Friday & I must say I'm quite suprised. I thought a 7f maiden somewhere would be next on the agenda, probably on a stiffer track than this. This however looks a hot conditions event with runners from some of the top yards. Titan Time ran a good second in a 6f Newbury maiden & holds Cheveley Park & Fillies Mile entries. Joint Aspiration is said to be Channon's best 2yo filly, has already taken a Salisbury maiden in good style & is also in the Fillies mile & a Group 1 at the Curragh. Tahir is also in the Cheveley Park & Fillies mile & makes her debut in this & not the usual maiden. Insinuation & Light of Dubai hold no big race entries but are from top yards, Stoute is especialy good with FTO winners. All in all this looks a race to watch rather than invest in. Cheers, Rio.

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

... i think its a race to just sit and watch myself, might make a slight investment, Ampelio, Esquire and Loyal Love in a combination f/c and t/c, and maybe a few quid on both the godolphin horses since their 2yo record is remarkable. alot of risk involved though :unsure and Suez is doing well, i picked it up FTO at an early price of 6/1 and made a killing, didnt touch today though, price was way too short. hopefully will come at a nice price for the chevelely park stakes later on :D

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Non runner Ruby Wine has been taken out off todays race, don't know what the reason the connections have given but it does look rather a hot race to me. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Thoughts on Kempton It will be interesting to see how the runners from the Kempton race on Friday develop. The winner Joint Aspiration is to go for the Fillies Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac next, the step up to a mile should suit has she was doing all her best work close home. The runner up Tahir ran a good race & looked like she might give the winner more to do till the last half furlong. She's also well entered, but will she take a maiden first? Titian Time ran to a similar level as the Newbury race here & should also land a maiden, can't see here winning a Group 1 though. Light of Dubai looked as though she knew what it's about, broke well & made the running but folded up a bit tamely. Not knocked about though when her chance had gone & with no fancy entries it will be interesting to see where they go from here. Insinuation on the other hand looked like she had no idea what was going on which is rather suprising from a Stoute runner. Did run on ok late on & I expect this one to leave this form behind NTO. Cheers, Rio.

[Guest TheTrebleKing]

Re: Thoughts on Kempton rio u sound like a professional, maybe contact ladbrokes and replace those mofo presenters on "ladbrokes live" :rollin

[Guest Khartoum]

Update on my 2 Almendrados was entered last week @ Salisbury but yet again did not run - has no new entries. Given A Choice - The 2nd on his only outing so far Monsoon Rain gave a boost to his maiden form with a win in a competitive maiden @ Doncaster this week. Has a few entries this week : 15/9 Sandown D2 Maiden 1 mile 16/9 Yarmouth D3 Maiden 1 mile 17/9 Nottingham D2 Maiden 1 mile All the best Khartoum.

[Guest Khartoum]

Re: Update on my 2 Given A Choice will run on Thursday @ Yarmouth unless there is any extremes in going. Looking at the entries there are a couple of Noseda's with multiple entries all week with Ahern booked for Force Nine. Bin Suroor has one entered Red Admiral, Haggas one Clueless & Bell one Kahira. Typical, taking my little girl to EuroDisney tomorrow for a few days, so won't know what's going in it or be able to see the race. All the best, Khartoum.

[Guest Khartoum]

Re: Given A Choice Apologies for the @#%$ info re running plans but I actually sent an e-mail to the Given stable asking a few questions about the horse, but basically got back a '@#%$ off it's running at Yarmouth'. Fair dues I suppose. Well it didn't run at Yarmouth but ran at Nottingham the day after & by all reports a massive disappointment. Went off 5/4 FAV from 6/4 so I guess someone must of fancied it & finished 7th of 11. Jockey Ian Mongan reported horse was unsuited by the ground & slow early pace. The horse apparently pulled hard & was on & off the bridle, looking fairly clueless before dropping out of contention. It's now entered this week at Salisbury 29/9 1m maiden Newmarket 30/9 1 maiden Newmarket 1/10 7f maiden Going to be up at Newmarket on the Thursday & Friday so hopefully may see the horse there. The ground at Newmarket was fairly decent this week so as long as it doesn't piss down till then the ground should be OK for it there. Also no new entries for Almendrados. All the best, Khartoum.

[Guest Khartoum]

Re: Given A Choice Bit skint so can't go today. Given A Choice is in the 4.05. The booking of Culhane is a plus, has a very good record for Given, who has not had a winner for 47 runs. Disregarding the latest disappointment I feel he has a fair chance. Post has him at about 7/1 so I'll have a fiver on that. All the best, Khartoum.