bowles10 Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Its not just about the Arc, other bets in here please! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 L'abbaye One of my favourite end of season sprint races where us Brits do very well against the French as they dont really train a great deal of specialist 5f horses which this track needs. Thta puts me off Marchand D'or the favourite as although has tasted G1 success this term, runs better over 6f/7f than it does over 5F, the race could well be over before it gets into full stride. Of those away quick & liking the ground, we must have Borderlescott 7/1 National colour 7/1 Overdose 7/1 All a decent price & with those 3, i think i have the winner. Now onto the horse i back every time it runs, Dandy Man!! At 25/1 with Dettori up, do i leave it out or have a small ew interest. I still believe that the horse is better ridden from the front when it was trained in Ireland these were the tactics & then Godolphin tried to turn it into a middle paced horse which hasnt worked. small ew interest on the DandyMan to produce a shock & finally win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 Borderlescott Winner of the Nunthorpe where a few others into todays field featured, Been placed all season before finally finding a win, 2-6 wins at 5f with 3 places, has form on the ground so hoping for a good effort today. Backed at 8.8 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Longchamp 1.15<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> I’ve followed Borderlescott a lot over the past couple of years and my love affair with racing began because of this fellow. It was sods law that when I left him alone LTO he finally earned an overdue Group 1 win in the Nunthorpe! Everytime I look though his form his consistency amazes me and given he finally broke his Group 1 duck LTO I’ll be back on board today at 7/1 EW. Trip ideal and goes on any ground. Longchamp 3.00 It’s hard to see past Lush Lashes as she looks to pick up her 4th Group 1 win of the campaign. She could easily have been chasing a Group 1 five timer here had it not been for the infamous ride from Kevin Manning in the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Nassau. Anyway, the form of that race didn’t work out too bad did it with Halfway to Heaven beating Darjina at Newmarket soon after. Happy to take the 5/2 with Lads. I'm also on Soldier of Fortune in the Arc (write up in the Arc thread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jug Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 3.00 Lady Deauville 16/1 At this price it looks a great e/w bet! Has great stamina and Norton knows how to treat her right :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Gran criterium.........J-L Laguardiere .........:unsure I fancy Naaqoos to overturn Mastercraftsman. This is largely based on seeing him run 5th in the Morny on his second start. He looked a million dollars and ran green, but was flying at the finish. Since come out and won a stakes race over todays CD, easily Should be ready for the step up to group one company ( it looks a pretty weak group one anyway ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 Marchand DOr 5/1 var 15 pts The best sprinter in Europe for me, has proved that this season with a host of group 1 wins now and some of which have seen the horses he has beaten and beaten with a degree of comfort, come out and win big races since or run well in defeat. Theres a couple of interesting question marks here. One is the trip, moves down in trip today to 5f having won group 1s at 6f and 6.5f lately. However if you go back to the start of the season, he managed to win at 5f, getting up late to do so and do so cosily as well. The horse he got up that day from was equiano who went onto win a group 1 and is in the field today but he gave that horse loads of weight and yet still managed to beat it which reads very strongly and shows he can prosper at 5f. The draw in 20 on paper isnt ideal but he is a hold horse so its not as though he will be pressing the leaders from that draw. The speedy national colour is drawn low but aprt from that a lot of the other main pace, overdose, desert lord, equiano etc are drawn high so hopefully he can track them and pounce late on ground that he is fine with as he seemingly is on any surface. 1.50 Again 7/2 var bog 15 pts Done nothing but improve since 8th on debut and three wins since read very well. Two starts ago in a group race showed real promise to come through and stay on strongly to win a group 2. Then lto prevailed at 7f when she overcame the well thought of shimah, indeed that horse is apparently one of the best horses that trainer has ever trainer, mind you all ire. trainers seem to say that. The pair pulled a fair way clear of the third who just ran an ordianry race in a group 1 on fri. She already won her maiden at a mile and judging by the way she stayed on lto, a mile could very well suit today. The wide draw isnt ideal and of course it could well be that she finds some of the unexposed french horses too good but on what she has done, I can understand why she is the fav for a yard that have such a good 2 year old team and of course have sent this one for this race. 3.00 Lush Lashes 5/2 var bog 15 pts Real class act this one and I will make a bold statement here, I think is very very near to being as good as her stablemate, new approach. Should have won 4 group 1s this term but for an unlucky and tactically naive ride at good. as it is just has to settle for the mere 3. So far has proved she has enough spped to win group 1 races at a mile, also won a group 1 race at 12f and could well complete the group 1 distance hat trick today. The big question though is the ground, a lot of her early form was on quick ground which clearly she handles very well. however lto she managed to win on yiedling ground to prove that she doesnt need it lightening fast all the time. Obviously serious rain would be a concern and she maybe taken out butas long as its not to severe she may just about be alright and if she is then she will take all the beating for me at what could just be her perfect trip. 3.40 Zarkava 9/4 var bog 25 pts I said at the start of the year I thought this horse could go through the whole season unbeaten and possibly that the only thing that could stop her, was her jockey who Im not really a fan of. That could still end up happening today and traffic problems in the arc are common especially for a hold up horse as this one is but I just think this is the complete class act here. True she hasnt done it against the colts yet and for some that is a huge negative. She also worryingly missed ths start badly lto and wouldnt want to do that in the Arc either. However I like at the visual impression of her races and also the form of her wins and just cant get away from it. 9/4 for a horse with the doubts I have already mentioned some people will totally ignore and if she wasnt proven at the trip, or agaisnt elders I would possibly be one of those people. However the fact is that she can get the trip now and did it well in breathtaking fashion lto, nearly breaking course records despite being miles back, ok the strong pace helped contribute to that, she raced against some elders to that day, one of which won a group 1 last night. Her early form reads superbly. She made a horse like goldikova look ordinary, that horse hasnt stopped winning group 1s since beating htn, darjina, natagora etc. Halfway to heaven has also been an also ram in comparison to this horse, thats now on three group 1s since, its quality form for me. Win bet. Also I have doubts about some of the major form of the others. Getaway won lto but been disappointing after a visually impressive first win this season. Vision D etat's form doesnt add up for me, the french derby has worked out poorly since. Of the two Ballydole main contenders, DOM I think is a brilliant horse, I have backed it every time this year except when big odds on at curr. However I just wonder is it just starting to go off the boil a tad. i mean it beat Pheonix Tower by 4 lengths at asc yet lto it only just beat it, has that cecil horse improved that much in the period or has the Duke ever so slightly come of the top a bit. Certainly reports of a poor gallop before the Ire. Champ stakes and subsequent withdrawl according to the ground, which I dont buy as it can go on softer, (look at asc. last year not france this year as that race wasnt soft) dont encourage. Im also not truly convinced by SOF, who wasnt good enough last year and for me needs it like a mud bath to be a truly great group 1 horse, see ire derby last year. It stills goes on better ground than that and can run well see epsom win but I just think it lacks a tad of top quality and if he really was such a strong contender, DOM wouldnt be in this as well. Of the rest two outsiders who cant be forgotten are Youmzain and Papal Bull who are much bigger than O'briens but have form with those horses. Papul Bull is very inconsistent and not a great win bet but place wise could well feature, afterall he was barely behind DOM at asc. Lto in germany he just did what PB does, not always perform consisitently and that german hosre ahead of it is also a tad interesting but for me PB just has that extra proven quality and even though there maybe a slight ground question mark, he is overpriced in comparison to DOM. As for grand old Youmzain he is another one overpriced, the way I see it is that he has raced against SOF three times, and beaten him twice and the one defeat was when given a lot to in the coronation as was PB. He was also second last year when I backed him, fortunately with the winner too, so that is solid form. true lto at sc. He was below par but not a lot went for him that day and he can put in some slightly below par runs so does need some forgiveness, but I still think he should be shorter in comparison to SOF even with Hills on board now. Those are two outsiders for me who could well run well and for me are overpriced but as I said before, Zarkava I just think could well be completely different class, we will see. for purposes of this thread its win only on Zarkava but I wouldnt put anyone off PB and Youmzain e.w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 National Colour - Win Looks like the threatened deluge hasn't happened and the ground should be riding no worse than good ( French good to soft usually equates to our 'good' !).......... If that's correct than the flying South African filly can take this from gate to post. Just headed in the Nunthorpe (when naturally I had her to win on BBotD !).........Borderlescott just nabbed her up the hill. On todays flat track I expect her to leave them for dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 GREEN MANALISHI 100/1 E/W VC BET Has a bit to find with some of these but horse has been in good form this year and i think the blinkers today will help. For to big a price imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct 1.15 GREEN MANALISHI 100/1 E/W VC BET Has a bit to find with some of these but horse has been in good form this year and i think the blinkers today will help. For to big a price imo. as long as the jock says in his ear, we're back at Chester! GL mate, should be a great race, pity the camera angle is normally very poor for this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Well, what a fcuking farcial start to the day! Forget the Arc, the race of the day has just been spoilt. Bloody joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct In a situation like the first race what happens with betfair, does the bet stand for the race being run again or is the stake returned ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Oh jeez........what a farce....... From what i gather so far the race will be ru-run at either 3.15 or 5.15........ How many of them will run.....who knows ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct If Fleeting Spirit hit the front of her stall hard when loading then it is nobodys fault. Just one of those things. If he did not, then this could happen again today. Presumably the stalls were tested before racing or before the race, and nothing was wrong. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Still no money returned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Still no money returned. Surely they'll have to declare it 'null and void' ? They can't carry over the bets to the re-run.........it'll be a different race and the odds will be different. Fleeting Spirit will probably be favourite now as she is the only one who hasn't run already today ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmcandrew Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Well, when it is re-run, I'm giving place chances to Wi Dud, who always runs credibly at the minimum trip. He's never ever far away and although this is a much better group of horses than he has raced with before, I'm giving him a fair shout at a price, 33/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Surely they'll have to declare it 'null and void' ? They can't carry over the bets to the re-run.........it'll be a different race and the odds will be different. Fleeting Spirit will probably be favourite now as she is the only one who hasn't run already today ! Paris Mutuel bets are carried forward. If you do not want your bet to be carried forward get in contact with your bookmaker and cancel it. But what happens to Betfair bets? Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Paris Mutuel bets are carried forward. If you do not want your bet to be carried forward get in contact with your bookmaker and cancel it. But what happens to Betfair bets? Mark Just looked and noticed a new market has been created with the bet(s) being carried forward,think the choice should have been given really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct just got in to watch the tape & disappointed the L'abbaye didnt run as planned. Overdose certainly took the race by the scruff of the neck but what can you do, i assume once the flag goes up, its a false start as Dettori was pulling up after about 2f & seemed to be telling the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Gran criterium.........J-L Laguardiere .........:unsure I fancy Naaqoos to overturn Mastercraftsman. This is largely based on seeing him run 5th in the Morny on his second start. He looked a million dollars and ran green, but was flying at the finish. Since come out and won a stakes race over todays CD, easily Should be ready for the step up to group one company ( it looks a pretty weak group one anyway ) Nice one, mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Good work Trotter. :clap Well done to those that backed Zarkava. She wasn't for me at the price but ends the season on a high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Nice one Trot:clap:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 5, 2008 Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Longchamp 5th Oct Prix De L'Abbaye (due to be re run at 5.30pm) Captain Gerrard (EACH WAY) Does not have any Group 1 form on offer but goes well on soft and good to soft and that may be in its favour against a few of these that would have preferred quicker ground. Has won over the 5f trip on 4 occasions and Tom Eaves has ridden it for 3 victories. Overdose is interesting but form is over 6f. Fleeting Spirit is a horse I like but seems to prefer faster ground. I'd like Borderlescott to be in the mix but still have doubts about it's Group 1 quality despite its win last time out. English trainers have a good record in this race and Captain Gerrard will possibly try to nick the race from the front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.