GaF Posted October 4, 2008 Share Posted October 4, 2008 I have been reviewing my September PokerTracker results, and it's thrown up something leading me to challenge one of the cornerstones of my poker beliefs!! The data I'm looking at relates specifically to 25c/50c Heads Up NLHE on Full Tilt between 17th and 30th September. I played 9179 hands at a profit of just under 19 Big Blinds per 100 hands. From the very beginning of my poker life, one of the pieces of advice I've heard again and again, and that has stuck with me is "don't overvalue suited cards. Suited cards are only about 2% more likely to win than their unsuited counterparts." Particularly, and I dont recall where I read this, I remember the comment "players are strange, they may religiously get involved with 87s, but would never even dream of getting involved with 87o, despite there only being a 2% greater chance of winning with the suited cards". This I would view to be even more true in HU cash games - why? Suited connectors play well multi way - when they hit well, they will make a big hand that most likely beat all other hands, but most of the time they will miss. In heads up, it takes far smaller hands to win the pot. Ace high may be good, a pair will often do it and anything else can almost be "overkill". Frequent moderate hands should therefore be more valuable than occasional monsters. (In contrast I suppose the deep stacked nature of Cash gives greater implied odds on your monsters). With this in mind, I'm somewhat surprised to see the following results: Suited Cards: Hands: 2136 VPIP: 49.95% PFR: 41.01% Profit: $599.90 (56 BB/100) Pairs: Hands: 529 VPIP: 81.29% PFR: 75.99% Profit: $635.45 (240 BB/100) Unsuited(and unpaired) Cards: Hands: 6493 VPIP: 37.79% PFR: 32.10% Loss: $301.45 (-10 BB/100) From the VPIP and PFR we can see that I am discriminating against unsuited cards and adding more value if cards are suited, but is it enough? Am I overvaluing unsuited cards (and by definition undervaluing suited cards)? The whole "poker problem" is not about having the best hand at showdown, it's about having the best hand if you get to showdown, and knowing that you have the best hand - so are suited cards that much more valuable because when they give you the flush you can have more confidence that yuou do indeed have the best hand? Any other thoughts on why my unsuited cards may be doing so much worse than my suited cards? Anyone else care to look at their PT stats and tell me if they see a similar pattern? Any thoughts on what is interesting to look at beyond this in reviewing my PT stats (specifically in relation to HU play) - what other leaks may there be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted October 4, 2008 Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... Suited connectors are big money earners in cash. The 2% difference doesn't tell the whole story does it. When you miss with them it's an easy fold but when you hit you can extract maximum value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... But flushes are pretty visible - how often will you get your flush (1 in 12 rings a bell :unsure) - when you hit, will you get paid off enough (especially heads up) for all the times you didnt hit? Do unsuited connectors not have the same advantage, but with straights (and being more hidden)? I think I'll dig out the difference between suited connectors and unsuited connectors next :ok (though just starting another stragtegy thread first ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted October 4, 2008 Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... Well If I hit a pair and a flush or str8 draw on a low board and think my opponent has an overpair I'll try and jam on the flop as I know I'm a fav to win the hand. I don't mind if he calls or folds and find it to be very profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... Suited Connectors: Hands: 331 VPIP: 75.23% PFR: 63.75% Profit: $304.05 (184 BB/100) Unsuited Connectors: Hands: 992 VPIP: 55.14% PFR: 45.46% Profit: $240.35 (48 BB/100) Suited One Gap Connectors: Hands: 286 VPIP: 73.43% PFR: 59.09% Profit: $252.20 (176 BB/100) Unsuited One Gap Connectors: Hands: 958 VPIP: 57.10% PFR: 48.33% Loss: -$9.15 (2 BB/100) Not sure what this all means yet :unsure The one gappers off suit are heavily distorted by a large success on AQo, if you remove that it's quite a heavy loss - so definitely looking like I should ditch the low and mid, off suit, one gappers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted October 4, 2008 Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... Again the stats don't tell the whole story of how the hands you played helped or hindered your table image and how much profit/loss was made during the session. I know The Mole doesn't use PokerTracker but I would love to see his stats for his weekly sessions it would be very interesting to see I and a real eyeopener I suspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... Again the stats don't tell the whole story of how the hands you played helped or hindered your table image and how much profit/loss was made during the session. For sure, and that's even more true at HU :ok However, at this level especially, I think it's important to try and plug the leaks.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted October 4, 2008 Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: But it was soooooooted..... yeah playing looser will probably mean you pick up more on your monsters etc,so opening up your range to suited connectors/semiconnectors gives you a lot more opportunity to raise so giving a looser image. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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