Wolverhampton 3/10/08

[fintron]

7.50 Hotham has been running credibly this season and finally picked up a deserved win last month on heavy ground at Ayr. As a result of that win he carried a penalty LTO and for that reason I avoided backing him again. He put in a tremendous effort burdening top weight and a 6 lb penalty lumped on his back that day though and ended up finishing 3rd in a tight finish. The second showed that the form looks fair with a decent display NTO, and the assessor rates Hotham at 78 here, the same as for his last run. Without the penalty he should be capable of making his mark here from a plum draw. His chances have been boosted further by the withdrawl of five runners and he showed last November that he goes on the surface and at the course (went down by only a neck to Cerebus). 10/3. 9.20 Somerset Falls - Mark Johnson does well with his juveniles, demonstrated by the Norfolk Broads win yesterday, and sends the lightly raced Somerset Falls to post for this 9 furlong, class 4 handicap. His filly was 2nd to Heiroglyph on her debut at Musselburgh (btn 2 lengths) and that rival has won off 71 since it turned to handicapping. The 3rd was three quarters of a length back and has also won off 71 in a handicap. On her reappearance she was a 2-length 4th to Romantic Destiny, but had Mr Toshiwonka well back and even that rival has won since going handicapping (off 62). The race doesn't look the best but she was entitled to need that run. LTO she had Transmission around 3 lengths behind and that rival ran well enough off 65 yesterday when 2nd to Apache Nation at Ayr. Johnton's filly gets let in off a mark of just 64 here and although she has to prove she stays this far she is a half-sister to Boscobel, a multiple winner over 7-12f at 2-3 and Bayeux, multiple 6-9f winner at 2-5. 11/2 so backing EW in case Blow Hole is too good.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Wolverhampton 3/10/08 6.50 The Last Bottle(Weight & Distance shouldnt be a problem could run a big race) Limelight (Distance shouldnt be prolem also the 1lbs raise with the claimer should be near at the finish) 7.20 Another Genepi (I like the look of this one and looks a good price, Big danger) Westport (Ran a blinder when last seen on the AW and even though top of the weights is still lower overall) Lake Sabina (Another who has a great chance and has been knocking on the door on the Polytrack) Others to beware of are (doubtful sound & what katie did) 7.50 Le Toreador (has a bit to do with his rise in class but does have a competent jockey in spencer on board) Classic Encounter (Well overprice, Think he will enjoy the return to the AW) Hotham (has found his form of late and connections will be hoping he can keep his form going on the change of surface) 8.20 Given A Choice (Has a 25% strike rate on G&D and has carried big weights in the past so his 9-5 shouldnt be off putting) Ahlawy (Something is telling me that he is going to runa big race and is 9lbs down on his previous G&D run) 8.50 Eloquenty (by dansili-legant cannot be ignored from this family, Only off putting is Trainer form with 2 year olds) Candilejas (Should place on previous G&D form) Lomica (If taking to the AW could easily win this) 9.20 Hilbre Court (Has a lot to do at the weights but his form does come good going into the winter months) Glenridding (Handicapper has relented a lot and should run a big race) Prince Noel (Another eye catcher won all 4 of his races in Oct-Nov and is well weighted)