Best bet of the day 1st Oct

[bowles10]

2.20 Nottingham Fitz Flyer Has ran 4 times this season & any reproduction of those efforts should be enough here against much lower class opposition. Interesting with the enigmatic Dettori taking the ride. 5th in one of the big Newmarket sales race was a very decent effort & the ground suits also.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct Only backing 3 horses tomorrow but I will go for: 16:05 Salisbury - Mamlakati Won over this distance first time out back in July. Stable is in good form this month as well and Hughes has also rode a lot of winners this month. Hannon seems to have a lot of 2yo winners as well which sways my decision to this horse. 2 pts to win @ 9/2 on Betfair

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 8.50 Kempton Luca Cumani sends out his Falbrav colt, Falcativ, as one of the nine runners that will face the starter for this 12 furlong class 5 race. He seemed to come to life on his handicap debut LTO when 3rd at Sandown and the form was boosted when the 5th (Storyland) picked up a handicap off 76 NTO. Bearing in Falcativ is rated 73 here, Dane O'Neil's mount could go close providing he takes to the polytrack. However, the one that ticks more boxes and offers better value at the prices IMO is Hughie Morrison's Mister Rossa, who could have the edge given he has proven his effectiveness on this surface. He looks to be on a decent mark of 71 (although Sporting Life say he is 64!!) through various formlines. He lost his maiden tag on his reappearance here in April over 10f to prove he handles polytrack, and stepped up to todays trip of 12f when he raced at Leicester the following month. He finished 3rd but was only 1.5 lengths off the winner to suggest he should stay this far. His last two races have come over 11f here and on both occassions he finished 2nd, beaten by 2 and 1.5 lengths respectively but he has been rubbing shoulders with some fair AW types to suggest he has been let in off a good mark here. When running off 70 he was narrowly behind Sylvester Kirk's progressive Fair Gale, who won off 74 that day and has followed up with handicap wins off 79 and 83 at a higher level than this. The 3rd, Hendersyde, won NTO in a handicap off 73, the 4th, Broken Moon, won NTO off 70 and even the 5th, Vilna, was a NTO scorer, off 67. It was during Vilna's win that he registered his latest 2nd, but he didn't get a clear run that day and may consider himself an unlucky runner up. The form of that race is respectable, even if not spectacular, as the 3rd has won since and the 4th ran well off 69 and only went down by half a length. The Cumani runner is likely to attract a lot of support and even though it does look to have solid claims the value will probably be squeezed out of backing it (at SP for the purposes of this comp) simply because of people following it because of connections. It is currently 7/4 and that looks plenty short enough for an AW handicap as it is, espcially as its price mainly reflects potential, not form, so for me Mister Rossa is a sensible EW alternative at 11/2 (Bet 365 BOG). 0.5 pt EW.

[TheRat]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 4.40 Sailsbury Blue Jack EW (14/1 Lad, 3 places 1/4) Been some big price winners in this race over the years and I'm taking a chance with another here. Muir has been amongst the winners recently even if the horse is not really in form. Ground will suit after two very close seconds a few runs ago. Actually placed in 4/9 on turf mainly in this class, and with a good draw I see no reason why he cannot go close here.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 2.50 Nottingham Kiribati King Bids for the four-timer this afternoon and the little but of juice in the ground should not be a problem judging by recent form. Trip poses no problem either. 1 pt win

[Trotter]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct Sals 4.40 - Ivory Silk - EW Blimey, what a race.........15 runner sprint handicap where the current 'jolly' is a steamer in from 25/1 to 7/1 and practically everything else is in double figures. Looks ideal for an EW punt on a big priced one. My selection is the only one in the race who won last time out. That was a maiden race which she won by 6 lengths. prior to that she had run ok in handicaps without winning - finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd in previous 3 handicaps. All off the same mark as today. I'm hoping that the easy win in a maiden race shows that the filly has started improving. The experts often tell us that fillies can improve bundles late in the season, presumably because they're a bit later developers than colts ? Anyway, back in a handicap off the same mark, I'm hoping for a big run Ground is OK, distance fine, trainer not in sparkling form but he gets 100 on the RTF figure at The Post. I think that means that his horses usually run to their capability.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 210 Newcastle: Yorksters Girl Not much time today so i'm going for a maiden race at Newcastle and cant see past the favourite here, ran behind Rainbow View and then a good placed effort at Doncaster which makes the horse hard to beat in this company, should be ok on the heavy ground and drawn near the rail which should help too.

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 3.45 Newcastle - Montaff Looks like a penalty kick for the favourite Montaff in this race due to withdrawals. Showed up very well on debut at Sandown on soft ground when finishing 2nd of 11 over 1m. Conditions should pose no problem, trip fine, stable 1 from 4 with their 2yo here so far this season so looks the likely winner IMO. WIN

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 2-40 Newcastle - Kings College Boy - each way Got to say it has no chance on form on this ground, but on his last run, which was at H.Q. somebody had a right go at it on Betfair, so I assume that things were expected, but they never materialised. The nag was backed from 55 to 14 in the win market, and from 9 to 3.75 in the place market. I'd hate to leave it alone today on the basis of the ground, and then see it get in the frame. 16/1 with Blue Square, which is better value than Betfairs 16 (at the moment) Only 3.7 for a place on Betfair but they will pay the first 4 places as there were 17 runners on the screen this morning. Field down to 15 now, shops only pay first 3.

[NMc106]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 3-45 - Newcastle - Hard Luck Story (E/W) Going suits, as does distance. Will not be easy to take down the favourite, but a good run and theres no reason why it can't. If in contention come final 3 it has a decent chance. PS. New to all this so the above may not be accurate!

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct

Only 3.7 for a place on Betfair but they will pay the first 4 places as there were 17 runners on the screen this morning. Field down to 15 now' date=' shops only pay first 3.[/quote'] Cass, when this happens and Betfair still pay out on the 4 places, do you get the full odds or is there a reduction factor applied? If so, how much or does it vary?

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct

Cass' date=' when this happens and Betfair still pay out on the 4 places, do you get the full odds or is there a reduction factor applied? If so, how much or does it vary?[/quote'] Hi Fin, what they pay depends on when you placed your bet. If you back one at 4.5 for example and they pull one of the fancied ones out after this, you should check your bet as it will have been reduced automatically at the time of withdrawal of the other horse(s). When a horse is withdrawn, betting is suspended,and the reduction factor is taken into account immediately it is removed from the show. So, if you bet after the withdrawal, you get what's on the screen when you place it (as long as nothing else gets taken out after that) Applies to any race where 8 or more start on the screen that morning (or the night before) and it goes down to 7 runners or lower, they still pay the first 3, even if it goes down to 4 runners. And with the big handicaps, it can go from 16 or more down to 6 (for whatever reason) and still pay 4 places, at much reduced odds though.

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct Salisbury 4:40 It is a fascinating race. Somebody must know something regarding Bazroy. Very well backed all day. But I think there is plenty to like about Charlie Delta who ran with a lot of credit returning from a break last time out. He loves Salisbury and the ground isn't an issue at all. Jockey is also claiming 3lbs, puts him back to a mark of about 69, which is a mark he is capable of capitalising off. Charlie Delta 16/1 (each way)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct 6.30 NOTTINGHAM KALASAM 0.5 E/W Has ability but doesn't always but it in. Should go well now dropped back to 10f. Trainer had a winner yesterday and theres been money for this one so stable must be confident.

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day 1st Oct Some decent stuff today guys. Winners for BH and CC :clap Quite a few people landed place money too by the looks of things.