Adovcating almost NEVER to lay to hedge

[Jezza]

I'm of the opinion this should (almost) never be done, controversial I know!!! However, when we back a bet we are always looking for value, that is the chances of it happening are more than the odds imply. The reverse therefore must also be true when we lay....we are giving odds that have to be less than the chance of the event happening. This is a LOT harder to acheive on an exchange than the backing part (unless you are subject to inside info like a trainer or something). When you have backed a longish shot, and it is looking good so the odds drop it is very tempting to lay it off and guarantee yourself some profit. However in the long run you have probably shot yourself in the foot and if you had a 2% adv before you probably now only have a 0.5% or similar. Yes it is gutting when the long shot doesnt come in and you could have had some small profit however in the long run you will make more by consitently just letting the value ride, if you can pick well from the start. If you hedge....you will have small consistent bank growth long term with smallish swings short term If you dont...you will have bigger bankroll growth in the long run albeit with big swings either way short term All assuming we can pick value picks tho!!!! :rollin Comments? Jez

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Adovcating almost NEVER to lay to hedge Yes, I agree with you. But if value is to be had in closing the bet then surely that should be taken. In other words if you have backed a team at a value price and during the game you can lay them at a price that is IYO shorter than fair odds then that should be taken. Bets should not be closed for the sake of it though, just because "guaranteed profit" can be taken.