Automated in-play laying - discuss

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Today has been a return to form so far:)

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Today has been a return to form so far:)

There was a bad race late in the afternoon at Ascot, the favourite was @ 5.40 and only one other horse was matched. Unfortunately that other horse ran away 12l clear with 1f left to go. I guess thats the problem you face if there is a horse that runs miles clear. I was still £8 up having lost £6.80 on that one race. Hope the rest of the afternoon was good for you.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

There was a bad race late in the afternoon at Ascot, the favourite was @ 5.40 and only one other horse was matched. Unfortunately that other horse ran away 12l clear with 1f left to go. I guess thats the problem you face if there is a horse that runs miles clear. I was still £8 up having lost £6.80 on that one race. Hope the rest of the afternoon was good for you.

Yeah I know the one you mean, only 2 horses matched below 6.00! But I was well up when that happened.:ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Great last race as long odds came from nowhere to win. I missed the the 6:20 and 6:40, manage to get anything out of them aldric?

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I missed the the 6:20 and 6:40' date=' manage to get anything out of them aldric?[/quote'] You did well to miss them!!

Horse Racing / Dund 26th Sep : 6f Mdn	26-Sep-08 18:40	26-Sep-08 18:54	-3.44
Horse Racing / Wolv 26th Sep : 6f Hcap	26-Sep-08 18:20	26-Sep-08 18:24	-3.80

Pretty awful evening, especially with the Irish racing back down to -50p overall today.

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices This really is very up and down.... I am not seeing a pattern in any of the races / tracks. After being appauling in the last 2 races at Dundalk, the 1940 just had 6 horses matched at 3.65. Im confused as hell!!

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

This really is very up and down.... I am not seeing a pattern in any of the races / tracks. After being appauling in the last 2 races at Dundalk, the 1940 just had 6 horses matched at 3.65. Im confused as hell!!

To be fair I'm almost upset because it's not easy to document when you don't have consistency. The 7:20 matched 3 well under evens so I honestly don't think there is a pattern. But I'm over £4.00 up on level stakes from doing this all day. Even with those others I'm guessing I'd be up £2-£3 though. Keep at it but be consistent and set it up in advance.:ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Can anybody tell me why there is no option to keep in-play on the 9:20 at Wolverhampton?:unsure

[Datapunter]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices not a regular race, harness racing apparantly has its own rules, race doesn't go in-running !

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

not a regular race, harness racing apparantly has its own rules, race doesn't go in-running !

Damn, best trade out as I'm really not just going to lay the favourite.

[Dices]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Take a look at the attachetment. Don't remember how i got it and don't know more details. Edit: I want to post an attachment here but dont know how. Any help? It's a pdf about stats for the current thread.

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices When you are posting a reply or editing there is a button called 'manage attachments' scroll down for it. Click that, then browse and upload.

[ScottyXS]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Take a look at the attachetment. Don't remember how i got it and don't know more details. Edit: I want to post an attachment here but dont know how. Any help? It's a pdf about stats for the current thread.

You may not have the right. Post it here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f2/testing-47750/index28.html :ok

[Dices]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

You may not have the right. Post it here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f2/testing-47750/index28.html :ok

It' larger than the permited size. 29 kb and max is 19.5kb Any other ideas?

[Dices]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices OK here it is: http://www.uploading.com/files/6R3U7J5Q/INPLAY_HORSE_RACING_STATS.pdf.html Take a look but please dont ask more details because i dont know more.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Were you on the 9:40 Aldric? That was just plain weird!! 12/1 horse was under evens on betfair just before it suspended and I managed to match it at 3.25.:eek As soon as it started, shot up to 9.00.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices That's the end of me posting full statement I think. Too time consuming. Here's p/l for the last 3 days as I noticed some of my statements have disappeared from the beginning of the thread (deleted them from photobucket not realising I would lose them from here:$).

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices So I got a little luck when I missed on two losing races today but they weren't full losses and so I think only about £1.00 difference in total. Luck is what you make of it so after deliberating whether to knock some money off my total for that piece of good fortune....I have decided not. Setting myself a target for this gloryhunt now as so many do: As you can see I'm already up £9.26 on this particular thread (about £4.30ish today) so if I can make that up to £20 I will call this my first successful thread ever:rollin.......and then due to the amount of time involved, stop posting. Hopefully during that time we will continue to see the very real possibilities of what I have highlighted here and the few readers I've amassed can try it for themselves if they so wish.:ok

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Were you on the 9:40 Aldric? That was just plain weird!! 12/1 horse was under evens on betfair just before it suspended and I managed to match it at 3.25.:eek As soon as it started, shot up to 9.00.

I was but I was out at work and didn't see the result, just looking back now and see it was a successful race though, with 6 matched at 3.25.... making £5.24 :ok I made £10.01 yesterday, however most of that was made up in the last two races as I upped my stake to £4 in the 2110 due to the favourite being around evens.... made £7.62 on that one. I will whack some lays on today and see how it goes :ok (I am going to be a bit more selective today tho)

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I decided to try something different and when I got back in this afternoon I tried laying the field at 2.0. I am about 4 races in so far and have had some success, especially in the 1555 Markey Rasen where 6, yes SIX horses were matched at 2.00. I will let you know how the rest of the day goes. Aldric

[Hodgey]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

So I got a little luck when I missed on two losing races today but they weren't full losses and so I think only about £1.00 difference in total. Luck is what you make of it so after deliberating whether to knock some money off my total for that piece of good fortune....I have decided not. Setting myself a target for this gloryhunt now as so many do: As you can see I'm already up £9.26 on this particular thread (about £4.30ish today) so if I can make that up to £20 I will call this my first successful thread ever:rollin.......and then due to the amount of time involved, stop posting. Hopefully during that time we will continue to see the very real possibilities of what I have highlighted here and the few readers I've amassed can try it for themselves if they so wish.:ok

I'm glad this is going well for you HG, but 4 or 5 days results is nowhere near long enough to gauge whether this will work long term or not. If you stop posting, are you going to continue doing the system? And if so, will you give us regular updates?

[Hodgey]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I decided to try something different and when I got back in this afternoon I tried laying the field at 2.0. I am about 4 races in so far and have had some success, especially in the 1555 Markey Rasen where 6, yes SIX horses were matched at 2.00. I will let you know how the rest of the day goes. Aldric

Another interesting angle. How did the rest of the day go?

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Another interesting angle. How did the rest of the day go?

Not the best end to the day but I layed the field in every race from 1540 and came out with £15.04 profit. Didn't take much time to do either to be honest. Going to have a think about this and think of ways of how this might :ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Really flying at one point yesterday but evening races mostly made a loss: So after yesterday the p/l stands at +£11.13:ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices So another £2.64 to add to yesterdays running total of +£11.13. Now +£13.77 overall and 5 days documented (6 days if I include my first days test before making it public - which I can't of course:lol) winnings on the bounce:ok

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I decided to try something different and when I got back in this afternoon I tried laying the field at 2.0. I am about 4 races in so far and have had some success, especially in the 1555 Markey Rasen where 6, yes SIX horses were matched at 2.00. I will let you know how the rest of the day goes. Aldric

Laying the field at 2.0 does make sense. A friends dad lays the field for 1.03 in every race. The logic being that he only needs 1 in 33 to go down for him to make his small amount of money. Looking at the PDF dices up'd this appears to make sense. Of the 29,703 races in the pdf, 31,031 horses were matched at 1.03. At 1.03 you would expect to be right 97.1% of the time, truth is that only 95.7% come in. Looking further down the pdf i spot some potential trouble for HG et al. The trend I note is that the higher the odds you lay at they, the more likely than expectation they are to happen. Take 1.88 from the pdf, you would expect a horse matched at this price to come in 53.2% of the time. According to the pdf this actually happens 58.5% of the time. The longer the odds, the greater the difference between expectation and what actually happens. Although the pdf doesn't go this far, assuming the diffferential comtinues then it appears that laying at 3 or 4 or 5 would yield more winners than you might hope. The difference here though is that you are obviously laying more horses than just a single horse in a single race and this might yield a result that masks the underlying facts that longer odds happen more than the odds suggest. Which may be why it works for laying and would not work for backing. Thoughts?