Automated in-play laying - discuss

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

There's some of these wher it hasn't even matched the favourite from last night but I am just leaving as is and seeing what happens in-play:hope

Oh, so you set yours up last night? Interesting way of doing it and I would assume favourites will regularly change overnight... From what i've seen so far today we are being a little unlucky as in almost all races we just needed 1 more matched to make a profit. Hopefully some more will start being matched :)

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices A good end to the afternoon HG, Im assuming you made a slight profit?

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Oh, so you set yours up last night? Interesting way of doing it and I would assume favourites will regularly change overnight... From what i've seen so far today we are being a little unlucky as in almost all races we just needed 1 more matched to make a profit. Hopefully some more will start being matched :)

Had to as needed to work lunch today. It's also a lot calmer because the price doesn't change when you're busy working out liability. Had a 1.7 layed today which must have withdrawn leaving me with unmatched 1.7 bets when the lowest was 4.00. Lost on that one.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

A good end to the afternoon HG' date=' Im assuming you made a slight profit?[/quote'] Indeed, with 4 straight winning races and a lovely race where 4 got matched at evens. Still going though and just made a loss on last race.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Evening's not treating me well. Lost a little on the 6:50 and then messed up somehow by not leaving in-play bets on the 7:20 I blame the late withdrawal haha!

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Well if today is as bad as it gets I'll be over the moon because every race bar a run of 4 late afternoon seemed to be dominated by 2 or 3 shortish price horses. Ended the day 44p up (which would have been about 80p if I hdn't messed up the the 7:20 by forgetting to leave in-play lays:$) :lol I'll post some screen prints in a bit.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Hi HG, This is certainly an interesting concept and one presumably bourne out of watching betfair markets closely. So hats off for that. Can you explain what happened in the 20:20 for you to end 32p down...... Thanks in advance.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Hi HG, This is certainly an interesting concept and one presumably bourne out of watching betfair markets closely. So hats off for that. Can you explain what happened in the 20:20 for you to end 32p down...... Thanks in advance.

In the process of posting it all now:ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Hi HG, This is certainly an interesting concept and one presumably bourne out of watching betfair markets closely. So hats off for that. Can you explain what happened in the 20:20 for you to end 32p down...... Thanks in advance.

So the answer is that this race was well and truly dominated by the top 3 shortest prices and never opened up:(

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

So the answer is that this race was well and truly dominated by the top 3 shortest prices and never opened up:(

Hi HG, This is certainly an interesting concept and one presumably bourne out of watching betfair markets closely. So hats off for that. Can you explain what happened in the 20:20 for you to end 32p down...... Thanks in advance.

Cheers mate. Sorry to chase you, didn't realise you were gonna post it all up. As FleetFanatic said - it's all very simple if you lay "x+1". I do wonder about the long term profit and also the type of races and size fields this would work best in..........only time will tell. Although I do heed the warnings of an experienced voice such as that of slapdash. I'll keep watching this and maybe some people might help you with the burden of tracking every race. Could you do some backtesting with the betfair data that is provided???? That might give you a shortcut to the answer you want as to the long term feasibility of this approach. Time for someone with all the betfair horse racing data in a database to step fwd.....maybe?!?!

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I may be wrong but I'm not sure slapdash understood exactly what I was doing when he said what he said.:unsure As for chasing me don't worry:ok No idea where you would find this particular data though as are there really records of a lowest price reached in-play for back dating?????

[ScottyXS]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Could you do some backtesting with the betfair data that is provided???? That might give you a shortcut to the answer you want as to the long term feasibility of this approach. Time for someone with all the betfair horse racing data in a database to step fwd.....maybe?!?!

Hey Matthew. Just one thing, how do you propose backtesting this system?? As even with favourites starting Betfair SPs, and the actual winners SPs, this will not tell you anything. The only way to make a profit on this kind of system is when favourites change throughout the race (these will then get matched). Basically thats what it comes down to. Unless you can maybe find very detailed race reports, which highlight how the market changed through the race, everything else is pointless. Unless perhaps you can assume a favourite goes onto win, therefore they must have lead throughout the race, therego a loss, but then again in very few races when a favourite wins, do they lead from the pack leaving no horse with a chance from the off, so this can be somewhat disregarded.

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

No idea where you would find this particular data though as are there really records of a lowest price reached in-play for back dating?????

As I understand it, the betfair data show you each selection in a market and gives you the price, volume matched, earliest time matched, last time matched. So you could see that Middlesbrough were matched at 2.0 for £20k between the times of 10:00am and 2:00pm for instance. So using that data could you not see what the price roughly was on the favourite at the off, depicted by last matched price before off time (which is also in the data). Then you can see how many of the other runners in that race were matched at that price. If you consistently see that "x+1" get matched then you may have found something. I might have a quick look now - if I still have enough Betfair points........

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Hey Matthew. Just one thing, how do you propose backtesting this system?? As even with favourites starting Betfair SPs, and the actual winners SPs, this will not tell you anything. The only way to make a profit on this kind of system is when favourites change throughout the race (these will then get matched). Basically thats what it comes down to. Unless you can maybe find very detailed race reports, which highlight how the market changed through the race, everything else is pointless. Unless perhaps you can assume a favourite goes onto win, therefore they must have lead throughout the race, therego a loss, but then again in very few races when a favourite wins, do they lead from the pack leaving no horse with a chance from the off, so this can be somewhat disregarded.

Oh...maybe i am wrong then..........looking now.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

As I understand it, the betfair data show you each selection in a market and gives you the price, volume matched, earliest time matched, last time matched. So you could see that Middlesbrough were matched at 2.0 for £20k between the times of 10:00am and 2:00pm for instance. So using that data could you not see what the price roughly was on the favourite at the off, depicted by last matched price before off time (which is also in the data). Then you can see how many of the other runners in that race were matched at that price. If you consistently see that "x+1" get matched then you may have found something. I might have a quick look now - if I still have enough Betfair points........

Form.betfair gives you all the SP's. I wasn't aware there was anywhere you could look to see what had been matched in-play but if you can get that info...all good:ok

[Matthew]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Right, For instance, the 14:50 at Uttoxeter on 21st Sept had 15 runners. At the off the fav (Covey) was matched on Betfair at 4.9 by 204 seperate bets, volume £10,227.50 So we'd lay the field for 4.9 theoretically. Beech Games was matched at a minimum of 60 for £4.02 Cordier, 5.5 for £132.70 Crazy Bold, 14.5 for £2.84 Eva Soneva So Fast, 180 for £7.34 Faversham, 11.5 for £18.60 Havenstone, 1.22 (min) £1000s matched beneath 4.9 Mount Usher, only matched above 4.9 My Condor, 2.1 for £14.66 No Supper, only matched above 4.9 Peak Season, only matched above 4.9 Silver Mount, only matched above 4.9 Title Deed, 5.1 for £234.98 Wujood, won Zorro De La Vega, 1.52 for £58.94 So in this instance I would say that you would lay: Covey (fav), Havenstone, My Condor, Wujood & Zorro De La Vega Which at £2 stake on the 4.9 lay would mean on this race we would have won 20p doesn't it? Bar commision. I've dummied it up on a race that is happening tomorrow: Seems to make sense to me, maybe I have got it wrong, it is late.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Think you're correct in workings. This is basically a break even race as I would see it. If I lay at 5 or close to then ideally I want 6 horses matched minimum.

[madnesstiger]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Hi guys. I'm not usually one to dabble into the field of horses, but this thread is different, in that (so far) there's no form study involved, and seems to be purely down to the betting public and their actions, and a bit of basic maths! HG, would it be possible at all to ask for a short summary to date, showing how many races you've been involved in with this system, and profit/loss details etc., rather than trawl through all the screenshots? Excellent idea in my opinion, and am following it with interest (stood quietly at the back ,peering over everyone elses shoulders!) MT :ok

[slapdash]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I may be wrong but I'm not sure slapdash understood exactly what I was doing when he said what he said.:unsure

Sorry, didn't notice your earlier reply to my comment until now:

Cheers Slapdash, fingers crossed!:hope Must say though that I'm not relying on the favourite losing or winning, just that they are challenged enough to give as many horses as possible a fair crack of the whip.

I appreciate that. But my point was that you're making two types of bet: (a) Laying favourites. (b) Offering lays on non-favourites at the same price as the favourite and letting them go in-running. If in the long run the whole strategy makes a profit, then either the type (a) bets or the type (b) bets ... or both ... must make a profit, before commission at least. (After commission it's a bit more complicated: it's conceivable that neither type of bet makes enough profit to cover the commission you'd pay if you only made that type of bet, but that making both types of bet you make a small profit because you pay less total commission as you're only paying it on the net profit in each race.) So what I was doing was thinking about the two halves of the strategy separately ... I think that makes it easier to think clearly about whether it's likely to be successful in the long run. It seems very unlikely to me that the type (a) bets, where you're just laying every favourite in every race, will be profitable in the long run, even before commission. With the type (b) bets, it's less clear. If you pick a random non-favourite and offer a lay at the odds of the favourite, could that be a profitable long run strategy? I have to say, it still seems unlikely, but I could be wrong. But anyway, you seem to be doing fine so far, so what do I know? :lol It might be interesting to look at your pre-commission profit and see how much comes from the favourites and how much from the non-favourites. Good luck.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Hi guys. I'm not usually one to dabble into the field of horses, but this thread is different, in that (so far) there's no form study involved, and seems to be purely down to the betting public and their actions, and a bit of basic maths! HG, would it be possible at all to ask for a short summary to date, showing how many races you've been involved in with this system, and profit/loss details etc., rather than trawl through all the screenshots? Excellent idea in my opinion, and am following it with interest (stood quietly at the back ,peering over everyone elses shoulders!) MT :ok

Not really because I'd have to trawl through them all to get it. My p/l on this thread is around £5.00 and my p/l no documented was £4.60ish And it's about 25-30 races a day:loon (so around 80-90 races so far). The p/l screenprint I posted yesterday will tell you how many races yesterday.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

It might be interesting to look at your pre-commission profit and see how much comes from the favourites and how much from the non-favourites. Good luck.

It might indeed but jeez would that be a lot of work haha!!:lol It's not that I'm lazy or anything but you can see how many races I've used just in 3 days:loon I'm thinking of it just like automated trading at the moment as each and every lay reduces liability very slightly while still retaining the potential profit.

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Just up after a nightshift and thought I would try this again. 1st race worked a treat and it almost seems like the races with the higher odds the better the result?? Can you check that HG? I would assume that it is better to concentrate on certain types of races, ie handicaps! 9 horses matched at 6.0 or less with £2 stakes (£5.72 profit):

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

1st race worked a treat and it almost seems like the races with the higher odds the better the result?? Can you check that HG?

Hmmmmm I take that back, next race favourite at 2.9, lay the field at that and 5 matched at 2.90 for a £4 profit. The 2 race types were a 2m Handicap Hurdle and a 1.6f Seller Stakes. Would be interesting to look through the previous results and see which races have been making a profit / loss. Sorry for hijacking your thread!!