happygooner Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Today is most definitely going to be the first loss...just a question of by how much... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Today is most definitely going to be the first loss...just a question of by how much... Lets hope its minimal. But this goes to show that the people out their putting much more money behind this unproven system - really don't know what theyr doing!! Lol I remember one person with £2 stakes?? Lol that can be like £20 liability on some races, and on days like this- so far, would mean HUGE losses. :loon Scotty :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I was down £14 this afternoon with liability of £10 per race.... I did some at £2 stakes last week, I think the most liabilty I had was about £12... unusual to have a favourite at odds over 10 to give you £20 liability with £2 stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Brace yourselves.... As if today wasn't bad enough I also managed somehow to screw up my in-play bets on one race by not actually keeping them so rather than suffer a 1/3 stakes loss on the 17:05......took a full hit! But it was always a matter of time before I did take a hit and when that hit happened it really wasn't very pleasant. The long and short though is still overall profit.....+£14.06 Ultimately the thread survives a little bit longer and here's hoping for a better time of it in Friday's racing:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
step1 Posted October 3, 2008 Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices hit was bound to come sometime but youre still going well.:hope don't know if you have delved into the front running favs aspect but patternform have a pace indicator for every race which might be useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 3, 2008 Author Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices After a truly dreadful start where I was all but ready to admit the previous week had been one big fluke, somehow I managed to claw a good percentage of it back. Started off by going £4.00 down on the day but after an impressive evening only marred by 1 or 2 favourites I ended things only 93p down on the day. Last race matched 10 horses at 5.8 so please with that. I'll post screenprints in a bit:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 3, 2008 Author Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 3, 2008 Author Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Still +£13.13:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted October 3, 2008 Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Haven't really ventured into the GH forum much :$ but having a good trawl through today. Really interesting thread HG, glad it has proved profitable for you so far. Got me to thinking about possibilities, lol. So far come up with: Laying every horse in 10+ runner races over distances under a mile at 1.80 in-running Would just need 2 horses in a race to have a half decent chance of winning to profit? Backing the top y horses in the betting in-running at x price, where x is the price of the favourite and y=x-2 eg. Current favourite is trading at 5.0, so would back the favourite pre-race at that price, and also leave trades to go in-running at that price for the next 2 in the betting. Would just need 1 of the front 3 in the betting to win, and profit would be made. I haven't thought any of this through in any degree of detail, just wondering if anyone had any opinions. Please, feel free to shoot me down in flames if it is warranted :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 3, 2008 Author Share Posted October 3, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Haven't really ventured into the GH forum much :$ but having a good trawl through today. Really interesting thread HG, glad it has proved profitable for you so far. Thanks, although around 15:00 this aftenoon I was ready to pack it all in:lol I got a good start but after seeing what can happen it's still very much debatable as to whether there is too much life in this method. Tried looking at just handicaps too which looked positive at first glance....and then when I looked further.....not so positive:( Doesn't appear to be any pattern to this at all. Perhaps enough single figured odds horses are required in any one race to make the likelyhood of a break even at worst, that bit more likely:unsure For example, if I lay 4.00 then realistically the race must have at least another 3 within single digits. Anybody think that may help?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Down about £2-£3.00 again today so I'm cutting and running before I lose anymore. Got some flukey profit and I'm taking it with before I lose the lot:$ It made for some interesting discussion if nothing else:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: Automated in-play laying - discuss Despite my failed attempt at laying the field in-play for a profit, I still believe there must be potential for in-play laying at lower odds than those you would have received before the off. That being the case I'd like to keep this thread open for discussion: It's documented that a favourite wins the race about 35% of the time. We also know that bookies add about 15% overround. So if we could lay the favourite in each race for lower odds than the bookie is offering then we must surely end up with a small profitable yield? A favourite by it's very definition has punters falling all over themselves to back it so when they start off well, the odds often drop for a while....at which point your lay goes on. I'm sure this is a foolish idea but meh:lol Overall you win 65% of the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.