Automated in-play laying - discuss

[happygooner]

Had an idea the other night which I decided to test out using very low stakes today and initial results were rather positive. I tried this out in every race today so it was totally random and took minutes to set up. First thing I did was to lay the favourite pre-race for whatever price was available. I then placed unmatched lays on the rest of the field at the same price as the favourite but made sure to tick the keep in-play box keeping the stake/liability the same for all horses. After that it's just case of getting as many matched as possible in order to gurantee a profit. In all of today's races there were only about 2 where not one horse came under or touched upon the initial price of the favourite. There were 2 races where I managed to match 7 horses. 1 of these races was quite profitable and the other at least managed a small profit. There was 1 race where my initial stake profited by 1.5x and there was 1 race where it doubled. The remaining races either provided small/average profit or gave a small loss. Whether this is likely to continue tomorrow remains to be seen but I'll definitely be giving it another go. Not really the type of thing I can post as it's all in-play but thought others may be interested and also offer up some opinions on whether this day was just a fluke:unsure

[aliando]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Good luck HG!

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Good luck HG!

Cheers aliando, any opinion on the longterm viability of such a system?

[Datapunter]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices If you post the intended race beforehand, then post whatever time permits during, provide a screenshot of the result, you should be fine. When you've done a few individual races so people really get it, then a screenshot of the result of the day can cover multiple races. Good luck,

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

If you post the intended race beforehand, then post whatever time permits during, provide a screenshot of the result, you should be fine. When you've done a few individual races so people really get it, then a screenshot of the result of the day can cover multiple races. Good luck,

Posting screenshots of each race would be nigh on impossible as I will be at work all day and plan to set this up over my lunch break. If I specify now that it will be all races and post a screenshot of my statement in the evening will this be sufficient? Also, what are your thoughts on such a simple system working in the long term?

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I can certainly post the favourite lay beforehand as that is all done prior to the race.

[aliando]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices you could always pm a screen shot to a mod of the profit/loss sheet to show proof of bets made/matched. no idea on long term viability but will be interesting to see how you do...

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Ok, I'll see what I can do:ok

[Datapunter]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices As you're not posting each bet before the even you need an alternative way of proving that what you post it true. Screenshots are an acceptable method. Post some screenshot sufficient for people to see exactly what it is you do. Then post the intended race and fav, and afterwards the result. No need for screenshots on every one. You can just post intention and result for 20, 30, 40 races and so on. At some point a mod WILL ask for a screenshot on 2 or 3 randomly picked races. As long as your willing to provide those you're fine :ok

[Datapunter]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices As to the strategy, i've never really looked at any data to be able to say anything meaningful either way. Can only wish you luck :ok

[slapdash]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Also, what are your thoughts on such a simple system working in the long term?

I hate being a wet blanket, but I have to say I'm sceptical. :sad When I see a system like this, where you make several individual bets on one event, hoping to make an overall profit, the first question I ask myself is "Which of the individual bets is expected to be profitable?" Because unless at least one of the individual bets has an expected profit (before commission, at least), then the whole collection of bets won't have an expected profit (the expected profit/loss of the whole collection of bets is just the sum of the expected profits/losses of the individual bets). So if your system is going to be profitable in the long run, then at least one of the following systems will be profitable (before commission): (a) Lay the favourite. (b) Pick a random horse other than the favourite, place an unmatched lay bet on it at the same price as the favourite, and leave it to run in-play. In fact, you need more. If some of the individual bets have an expected profit, and some have an expected loss, then the profitable ones need to show enough profit to make up for the unprofitable ones, and also enough to cover the commission. When you split things up into the individual bets like that, it just seems very unlikely (to me at least) that any of them are likely to be profitable in the long run without being more selective. Though I'd be delighted if you proved me wrong.

[ScottyXS]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Good luck Richy mate :ok Hope things go well for ya on this :hope

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I hate being a wet blanket, but I have to say I'm sceptical. :sad When I see a system like this, where you make several individual bets on one event, hoping to make an overall profit, the first question I ask myself is "Which of the individual bets is expected to be profitable?" Because unless at least one of the individual bets has an expected profit (before commission, at least), then the whole collection of bets won't have an expected profit (the expected profit/loss of the whole collection of bets is just the sum of the expected profits/losses of the individual bets). So if your system is going to be profitable in the long run, then at least one of the following systems will be profitable (before commission): (a) Lay the favourite. (b) Pick a random horse other than the favourite, place an unmatched lay bet on it at the same price as the favourite, and leave it to run in-play. In fact, you need more. If some of the individual bets have an expected profit, and some have an expected loss, then the profitable ones need to show enough profit to make up for the unprofitable ones, and also enough to cover the commission. When you split things up into the individual bets like that, it just seems very unlikely (to me at least) that any of them are likely to be profitable in the long run without being more selective. Though I'd be delighted if you proved me wrong.

Cheers Slapdash, fingers crossed!:hope Must say though that I'm not relying on the favourite losing or winning, just that they are challenged enough to give as many horses as possible a fair crack of the whip. So many times a favourite will end up winning but after fighting for it all the way it seems. And for the most part there seem to be at least 3 horses in the running at some stage meaning that however temporary, large priced starters fall under the lay price set prior to the off, before drifting out again.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices If I was laying all the horses at or close to their starting price then all I could hope for would be to break even or take a small loss. As I'm actually just trying to match every horse for the same price that the favourite went off it should surely be a different kettle of fish alltogether. The only time a full loss can occur is when a favourite dominates from start to finish. Whereas for a profit to be made, no matter how small, I just need to match as many horses as the I paid on the favourite. So 2/1 horse and I need to match 2 more for break even and 3 for a nice profit.

[mediamonkey]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Interesting approach - I often lay the field in-running, but usually after I've traded before the off to give a small profit say three or four quid on every runner. What I then do is lay every horse at, say, evens for the amount I am green on the field. Worst case scenario - it's not a close race and only the winner is matched at evens or lower. Result - no profit no loss. Best scenario is a close race, flip-flopping leaders and maybe three or four horses trade at evens - result, three or four times my stake won. Sometimes I vary it and, say, lay the field at 1.1 for 5 times the all-green figure. Less chance of collecting, but if I don't then I only lose half the green, and if there's a tight finish I could win bigger. I like the sound of your approach though, as it's systematic. (On a different note, I'm pretty sure that leaving an in-running lay of both sides at 1.5 in WTA tennis matches would win a decent sum over the season!)

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Attached is a screenprint of the 14:10 in which I matched 7 horses all at 2.64 Hopefully this just gives some idea of what I'm talking about.

[SteveO]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Gooner are you going to be selective in the races that you select. For instance in 5f - 7f sprints (handicaps even better) there tend to be blanket finishes and many horses will get matched at low prices. Looks very promising though, Good Luck.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Thanks, the most successful races today were actually the longer races where so much could happen before the end. For now I think I'll just track them all. Appeals to my nature of wanting to bet on every race too haha!!:$

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Let's look at today then...

[Hodgey]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Another interesting approach mate. Good luck with it - will be interesting to see how it pans out. :ok

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Goodwood 14:00 Electrolux Median Auction Maiden Stakes (div 1) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 12 runners) Layed Roman [email protected] 14:35 Electrolux Median Auction Maiden Stakes (div 2) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 10 runners) Layed [email protected] 15:10 R. H. Hall / E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 4, 1m 1f, 15 runners)

Layed Headline [email protected]

15:45 3663 First For Foodservice Handicap (3yo+, Class 4, 6f, 16 runners)

16:20 Foundation Stakes (listed) (3yo+, Class 1, 1m 1f 192y, 7 runners)

16:55 Coors Brewers Celebrating John Spiers Retirement Handicap (3yo, Class 4, 1m 3f, 11 runners)

17:30 Merbury Catering Consultants Handicap (3yo+, Class 4, 1m 4f, 12 runners)

18:00 Merbury 18th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 15 runners)

Redcar 13:45 E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (div 1) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 11 runners) Layed Spinners [email protected] 14:15 E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (div 2) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 11 runners)

Layed Master [email protected]

14:50 Pertemps Employment Alliance Nursery Handicap (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 20 runners) Layed Andean [email protected]

15:25 Boddingtons Straight-mile Championship Claiming Stakes (qal) (3yo+, Class 4, 1m, 18 runners)

16:00 Pertemps People Development Group Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 2f, 14 runners)

16:35 Weddings At Redcar Selling Stakes (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m 2f, 15 runners)

17:10 Rotary Watches At Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 18 runners)

17:40 Subscribe To Racing Uk Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 6f, 19 runners)

Perth 14:25 Iveco Eurocargo Maiden Hurdle (div 1) (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 4f 110y, 11 runners) Layed It's [email protected]

15:00 Maersk Oil North Sea Novices' Handicap Chase (4yo+, Class 4, 2m, 9 runners) Layed Freddie The [email protected] 15:35 Easyfix Plastic Hurdles Claiming Hurdle (4-6yo, Class 5, 2m 110y, 9 runners)

16:10 Star Alliance The Way Earth Connects Handicap Chase (4yo+, Class 3, 3m, 9 runners)

16:45 Sterling Assurance Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (3yo, Class 4, 2m 110y, 6 runners)

17:20 Iveco All Blacks Handicap Hurdle (4yo+, Class 4, 3m 110y, 11 runners)

17:50 Iveco Eurocargo Maiden Hurdle (div 2) (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 4f 110y, 10 runners)

Kempton 18:20 Kempton.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Fillies' Stakes (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 14 runners)

18:50 Day Time, Night Time, Great Time Median Auction Maiden Stks (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m, 11 runners)

19:20 Digibet.com Nursery Handicap (2yo, Class 6, 7f, 14 runners)

19:50 Digibet.com Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 7f, 13 runners)

20:20 Digibet Casino Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 6f, 12 runners)

20:50 Tfm Networks Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 4f, 13 runners)

21:20 Barrettstown Stud Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 1m, 13 runners)

Downpatrick 14:10 Coca-cola Maiden Hurdle (5yo+, 2m 6f, 18 runners)

Layed Mr [email protected]

14:40 Cuisine De France Handicap Hurdle (77-90) (4yo+, 2m 1f 172y, 18 runners) Layed [email protected]

15:15 Tayto Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (50-70) (4yo+, 1m 4f 110y, 15 runners)

15:50 Mace Northern Ireland Champion Apprentice Handicap (45-60) (3yo+, 1m 3f 55y, 18 runners)

16:20 Rhm Bakeries Beginners Chase (4yo+, 2m 2f 110y, 17 runners)

16:55 Britvic Handicap Chase (0-95) (5yo+, 2m 7f, 18 runners)

17:25 Denny E.b.f. Beginners Chase (5yo+, 2m 7f, 10 runners) More to follow as first race not far off now!!!

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Continuation from last post... Goodwood 14:00 Electrolux Median Auction Maiden Stakes (div 1) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 12 runners) Layed Roman [email protected] 14:35 Electrolux Median Auction Maiden Stakes (div 2) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 10 runners) Layed [email protected] 15:10 R. H. Hall / E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 4, 1m 1f, 15 runners)

Layed Headline [email protected]

15:45 3663 First For Foodservice Handicap (3yo+, Class 4, 6f, 16 runners)

16:20 Foundation Stakes (listed) (3yo+, Class 1, 1m 1f 192y, 7 runners)

16:55 Coors Brewers Celebrating John Spiers Retirement Handicap (3yo, Class 4, 1m 3f, 11 runners)

17:30 Merbury Catering Consultants Handicap (3yo+, Class 4, 1m 4f, 12 runners)

18:00 Merbury 18th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 15 runners)

Redcar 13:45 E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (div 1) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 11 runners) Layed Spinners [email protected] 14:15 E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (div 2) (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 11 runners)

Layed Master [email protected]

14:50 Pertemps Employment Alliance Nursery Handicap (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 20 runners) Layed Andean [email protected]

15:25 Boddingtons Straight-mile Championship Claiming Stakes (qal) (3yo+, Class 4, 1m, 18 runners) Layed Very Wise @ 4.6

16:00 Pertemps People Development Group Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 2f, 14 runners)

16:35 Weddings At Redcar Selling Stakes (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m 2f, 15 runners)

17:10 Rotary Watches At Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 18 runners)

17:40 Subscribe To Racing Uk Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 6f, 19 runners)

Perth 14:25 Iveco Eurocargo Maiden Hurdle (div 1) (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 4f 110y, 11 runners) Layed It's [email protected]

15:00 Maersk Oil North Sea Novices' Handicap Chase (4yo+, Class 4, 2m, 9 runners) Layed Freddie The [email protected] 15:35 Easyfix Plastic Hurdles Claiming Hurdle (4-6yo, Class 5, 2m 110y, 9 runners) Layed Roman Villa @ 2.78

16:10 Star Alliance The Way Earth Connects Handicap Chase (4yo+, Class 3, 3m, 9 runners)

16:45 Sterling Assurance Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (3yo, Class 4, 2m 110y, 6 runners)

17:20 Iveco All Blacks Handicap Hurdle (4yo+, Class 4, 3m 110y, 11 runners)

17:50 Iveco Eurocargo Maiden Hurdle (div 2) (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 4f 110y, 10 runners)

Kempton 18:20 Kempton.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Fillies' Stakes (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 14 runners)

18:50 Day Time, Night Time, Great Time Median Auction Maiden Stks (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m, 11 runners)

19:20 Digibet.com Nursery Handicap (2yo, Class 6, 7f, 14 runners)

19:50 Digibet.com Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 7f, 13 runners)

20:20 Digibet Casino Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 6f, 12 runners)

20:50 Tfm Networks Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 4f, 13 runners)

21:20 Barrettstown Stud Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 1m, 13 runners)

Downpatrick 14:10 Coca-cola Maiden Hurdle (5yo+, 2m 6f, 18 runners)

Layed Mr [email protected]

14:40 Cuisine De France Handicap Hurdle (77-90) (4yo+, 2m 1f 172y, 18 runners) Layed [email protected]

15:15 Tayto Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (50-70) (4yo+, 1m 4f 110y, 15 runners) Layed Mythical Prince @ 6.6 15:50 Mace Northern Ireland Champion Apprentice Handicap (45-60) (3yo+, 1m 3f 55y, 18 runners)

16:20 Rhm Bakeries Beginners Chase (4yo+, 2m 2f 110y, 17 runners)

16:55 Britvic Handicap Chase (0-95) (5yo+, 2m 7f, 18 runners)

17:25 Denny E.b.f. Beginners Chase (5yo+, 2m 7f, 10 runners) Sorry but no more time to post which favourites but I'm taking them all and will have a screen print later.

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I underestimated the amount of time it takes betting each race but it is working again. :hopeIt continues

[aldric]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

I underestimated the amount of time it takes betting each race but it is working again. :hopeIt continues

Can you not just do it all at the start of the day? Thinking about it, I guess it depends how much money you have in your account!!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices So if I am reading this right.... If for instance the fav was 3.00 in an 8 horse race, the idea is to get the other 7 layed for 3.00 in running? And therefore, allowing for commission you would need to get at least 4 including the fav matched to make a profit at odds of 3.00? That way if the fav won you would pay out 2/1, whilst getting 3 times (or more if more got matched) the original stake from the other 3 losers that got matched. Am I getting the idea?

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

So if I am reading this right.... If for instance the fav was 3.00 in an 8 horse race, the idea is to get the other 7 layed for 3.00 in running? And therefore, allowing for commission you would need to get at least 4 including the fav matched to make a profit at odds of 3.00? That way if the fav won you would pay out 2/1, whilst getting 3 times (or more if more got matched) the original stake from the other 3 losers that got matched. Am I getting the idea?

Yup:D Working well again today with 10 horses matched at 6.6 I think in one race:loon Last 2 races were full losses as I guess favourite dominated from start to finish:\ But overall:tongue2

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Can you not just do it all at the start of the day? Thinking about it, I guess it depends how much money you have in your account!!

I may have to start as today has been fairly manic what with being expected to do waork and stuff as well;)

[happygooner]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices The hardest thing about this by far is going to be documenting every blasted race haha!! Easy enough to post screeshots of my statement which document how the entire day unfolded but actually typing these up would take me hours:eek

[ScottyXS]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Hey HG, surely races with short priced favourites should produce the highest turnover. When the favourite has odds of 8/1, then you need to get 8 other horses matched, just to break even, surely?? Least even if an even shot wins, only requires 1 other horse to be matched to break even, any more for profit.

[Hodgey]

Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices

Hey HG, surely races with short priced favourites should produce the highest turnover. When the favourite has odds of 8/1, then you need to get 8 other horses matched, just to break even, surely?? Least even if an even shot wins, only requires 1 other horse to be matched to break even, any more for profit.

Exactly what I was thinking mate. A cut off of say 2/1 or maybe 5/2 on the fave might be the best way to go here. Plenty of horses go that short in running too. :ok