Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror The story after 22 bets: Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 -1, 97.62 (006) Pumas - San Luis, BACK Pumas @ 1.94 -1, 96.62 (007) Puebla - Tigres, BACK Tigres @ 3.00 -1, 95.62 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, BACK Zaragoza @ 1.56 +0.53, 96.15 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, BACK Tenerife @ 1.77 -1, 95.15 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, BACK Boca Juniors @ 1.41 -1, 94.15 (011) Viking - Stabaek, BACK Stabaek @ 2.32 -1, 93.15 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, BACK Hajduk Split @ 5.1 :) +3.90 97.05 (013) Sigma - Brno, BACK Brno @ 3.15 :( -1, 96.05 (014) Cluj - Farul, BACK Farul @ 14 :( -1, 95.05 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, BACK Botafogo @ 2.28 :( -1, 94.05 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, BACK Gremio @ 2.46 :( -1, 93.05 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, BACK Sport Recife @ 2.44 :( -1, 92.05 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, BACK Cruzeiro @ 2.64 :) +1.56, 93.61 (019) Marseille - Monaco, BACK Marseille @ 1.60 :( -1, 92.61 (020) San Martin - River Plate, BACK San Martin @ 3.70 :) +2.57, 95.18 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, BACK Internacional @ 1.71 :) +0.67, 95.85 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, BACK Palmeiras @ 1.44 :) +0.42, 96.27 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 -0.66, 101.24 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 +0.95, 102.19 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 +0.95, 103.14 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 +0.95, 104.09 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 -0.57, 103.52 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 +0.95, 104.47 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 +0.95, 105.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 +0.95, 106.37 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 :( -4.10, 102.27 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30 :) +0.95, 103.22 (014) Cluj - Farul, LAY Farul @ 15 :) +0.95, 104.17 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, LAY Botafogo @ 2.30 :) +0.95, 105.12 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, LAY Gremio @ 2.54 :) +0.95, 106.07 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, LAY Sport Recife @ 2.46 :) +0.95, 107.02 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, LAY Cruzeiro @ 2.70 :( -1.64, 105.38 (019) Marseille - Monaco, LAY Marseille @ 1.61 :) +0.95, 106.33 (020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 :( -2.70, 103.63 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 :( -1.71, 101.92 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46 :( -1.44, 100.48 Preliminary figures shows that bank 1 is in loss, but bank 2 is almost break even. This is not what i had expected, but it is what others told me would happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mediamonkey Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Preliminary figures shows that bank 1 is in loss, but bank 2 is almost break even. This is not what i had expected, but it is what others told me would happen. Hi Hooloovoo, I am new to this forum but have been reading the Glory Hunters board with interest! I hope that this method will give you some good feedback on your selction process but as others have said, the commission effect is much bigger than you'd think! Remember, you pay commission on winnings, so you only win (say) 95% of each win, but you lose 100% of each loss. So, for example, you have 100 bets of £10 each at evens, and exactly half of them win, and you pay 5% commission: Total losses = £10 x 50 = £500 Total wins = £9.50 x 50 = £425 Overall loss = £75. You would actually need to win 52% of your evens bets purely to break even (losses = £480, wins = £494). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Hi Hooloovoo, I am new to this forum but have been reading the Glory Hunters board with interest! I hope that this method will give you some good feedback on your selction process but as others have said, the commission effect is much bigger than you'd think! Remember, you pay commission on winnings, so you only win (say) 95% of each win, but you lose 100% of each loss. So, for example, you have 100 bets of £10 each at evens, and exactly half of them win, and you pay 5% commission: Total losses = £10 x 50 = £500 Total wins = £9.50 x 50 = £425 Overall loss = £75. You would actually need to win 52% of your evens bets purely to break even (losses = £480, wins = £494). :welcome to PL mediamonkey...! Thanks for your input. Actually i have not made any calculations regarding this, it was more of a hunch/feel really that it might work. You're correct that commission is probably the biggest pitfall here, although it's a tiny 5% it makes a huge difference...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror ...especially if you continue to win and get stung by BF's new 20% taxing system!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Corrected some calculations: Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 -0.66, 101.24 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 +0.95, 102.19 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 +0.95, 103.14 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 +0.95, 104.09 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 -0.57, 103.52 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 +0.95, 104.47 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 +0.95, 105.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 +0.95, 106.37 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 -4.30, 102.07 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30 +0.95, 103.02 (014) Cluj - Farul, LAY Farul @ 15 +0.95, 103.97 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, LAY Botafogo @ 2.30 +0.95, 104.92 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, LAY Gremio @ 2.54 +0.95, 105.87 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, LAY Sport Recife @ 2.46 +0.95, 106.82 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, LAY Cruzeiro @ 2.70 -1.70, 105.12 (019) Marseille - Monaco, LAY Marseille @ 1.61 +0.95, 106.07 (020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 -2.75, 103.32 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 -1.72, 101.60 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46 -1.46, 100.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, BACK Brasov @ 3.20 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, BACK Randers Freja @ 2.90 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, BACK Sparta Prague @ 1.37 (026) Unirea - Craiova, BACK Unirea @ 1.67 Bank 2: (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, LAY Brasov @ 3.25 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, LAY Randers Freja @ 3.10 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, LAY Sparta Prague @ 1.38 (027) Unirea - Craiova, LAY Unirea @ 1.68 Huge difference in odds for #22... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: (020) San Martin - River Plate, BACK San Martin @ 3.70 :) +2.57, 95.18 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, BACK Internacional @ 1.71 :) +0.67, 95.85 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, BACK Palmeiras @ 1.44 :) +0.42, 96.27 (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, BACK Brasov @ 3.20 :( -1, 95.27 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, BACK Randers Freja @ 2.90 :( -1, 94.27 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, BACK Sparta Prague @ 1.37 (026) Unirea - Craiova, BACK Unirea @ 1.67 (027) Bröndby - Esbjerg, BACK Bröndby @ 1.67 (028) Lilleström - Brann, BACK Lilleström @ 1.91 (029) Halmstad - Örebro, BACK Halmstad @ 2.00 (030) Trelleborg - Sundsvall, BACK Trelleborg @ 1.91 (031) Zlin - Slavia Prague, BACK Slavia Prague @ 1.77 Bank 2: (020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 -2.75, 103.32 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 -1.72, 101.60 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46 -1.46, 100.14 (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, LAY Brasov @ 3.25 :) +0.95, 101.09 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, LAY Randers Freja @ 3.10 :) +0.95, 102.04 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, LAY Sparta Prague @ 1.38 (026) Unirea - Craiova, LAY Unirea @ 1.68 (027) Bröndby - Esbjerg, LAY Bröndby @ 1.68 (028) Lilleström - Brann, LAY Lilleström @ 1.92 (029) Halmstad - Örebro, LAY Halmstad @ 2.02 (030) Trelleborg - Sundsvall, LAY Trelleborg @ 1.92 (031) Zlin - Slavia Prague, LAY Slavia Prague @ 1.79 Getting better odds for laying now, only a tic or two higher than the back odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Could you not place your LAY bets at the same odds as the BACK bets, and wait for them to get matched on BF? Or maybe it will be better to do it the other way round... LAY at the odds offered, and then place the BACK bets at the same odds and wait for them to be matched. It still doesn't remove the commission factor, but was just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Could you not place your LAY bets at the same odds as the BACK bets, and wait for them to get matched on BF? Or maybe it will be better to do it the other way round... LAY at the odds offered, and then place the BACK bets at the same odds and wait for them to be matched. It still doesn't remove the commission factor, but was just a thought. It's a paper trial mate, as stated in post #1 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror I know that! :) I just meant that it might make the profit/loss amounts clearer to see. And maybe even more so for a 'paper trial', as this could highlight just how much effect the commission rates have on the outcome of winning bets. Only an opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror I know that! :) I just meant that it might make the profit/loss amounts clearer to see. And maybe even more so for a 'paper trial', as this could highlight just how much effect the commission rates have on the outcome of winning bets. Only an opinion. I see your point. I knew from the start that difference in odds and commission would be the two things that had to be battled here. Commission seem to be the heavy part here. I could recalculate some...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Slavia Prague is 3-0 up with 15 mins to go so i count that as a win for them Bank 1: (020) San Martin - River Plate, BACK San Martin @ 3.70 +2.57, 95.18 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, BACK Internacional @ 1.71 +0.67, 95.85 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, BACK Palmeiras @ 1.44 +0.42, 96.27 (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, BACK Brasov @ 3.20 -1, 95.27 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, BACK Randers Freja @ 2.90 -1, 94.27 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, BACK Sparta Prague @ 1.37 :( -1, 93.27 (026) Unirea - Craiova, BACK Unirea @ 1.67 :( -1, 92.27 (027) Bröndby - Esbjerg, BACK Bröndby @ 1.67 :) +0.64, 92.91 (028) Lilleström - Brann, BACK Lilleström @ 1.91 :( -1, 91.91 (029) Halmstad - Örebro, BACK Halmstad @ 2.00 :( -1, 90.91 (030) Trelleborg - Sundsvall, BACK Trelleborg @ 1.91 :) +0.86, 91.77 (031) Zlin - Slavia Prague, BACK Slavia Prague @ 1.77 :) +0.73, 92.50 Bank 2: (020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 -2.75, 103.32 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 -1.72, 101.60 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46 -1.46, 100.14 (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, LAY Brasov @ 3.25 +0.95, 101.09 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, LAY Randers Freja @ 3.10 +0.95, 102.04 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, LAY Sparta Prague @ 1.38 :) +0.95, 103.35 (026) Unirea - Craiova, LAY Unirea @ 1.68 :) +0.95, 104.30 (027) Bröndby - Esbjerg, LAY Bröndby @ 1.68 :( -0.68, 103.62 (028) Lilleström - Brann, LAY Lilleström @ 1.92 :) +0.95, 104.57 (029) Halmstad - Örebro, LAY Halmstad @ 2.02 :) +0.95, 105.52 (030) Trelleborg - Sundsvall, LAY Trelleborg @ 1.92 :( -0.92, 104.60 (031) Zlin - Slavia Prague, LAY Slavia Prague @ 1.79 :( -0.79, 103.81 Bank 1: -7.50 Bank 2: +3.81 Commission sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Total story of bank 2: Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 -0.66, 101.24 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 +0.95, 102.19 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 +0.95, 103.14 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 +0.95, 104.09 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 -0.57, 103.52 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 +0.95, 104.47 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 +0.95, 105.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 +0.95, 106.37 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 -4.30, 102.07 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30 +0.95, 103.02 (014) Cluj - Farul, LAY Farul @ 15 +0.95, 103.97 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, LAY Botafogo @ 2.30 +0.95, 104.92 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, LAY Gremio @ 2.54 +0.95, 105.87 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, LAY Sport Recife @ 2.46 +0.95, 106.82 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, LAY Cruzeiro @ 2.70 -1.70, 105.12 (019) Marseille - Monaco, LAY Marseille @ 1.61 +0.95, 106.07 (020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 -2.75, 103.32 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 -1.72, 101.60 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46 -1.46, 100.14 (023) Brasov - Rapid Bucharest, LAY Brasov @ 3.25 +0.95, 101.09 (024) Aarhus - Randers Freja, LAY Randers Freja @ 3.10 +0.95, 102.04 (025) Sparta Prague - Teplice, LAY Sparta Prague @ 1.38 +0.95, 103.35 (026) Unirea - Craiova, LAY Unirea @ 1.68 +0.95, 104.30 (027) Bröndby - Esbjerg, LAY Bröndby @ 1.68 -0.68, 103.62 (028) Lilleström - Brann, LAY Lilleström @ 1.92 +0.95, 104.57 (029) Halmstad - Örebro, LAY Halmstad @ 2.02 +0.95, 105.52 (030) Trelleborg - Sundsvall, LAY Trelleborg @ 1.92 -0.92, 104.60 (031) Zlin - Slavia Prague, LAY Slavia Prague @ 1.79 -0.79, 103.81 A total of 20 wins with 0.05 commission in each win is no more than 1.00 in commission...! That means that without commission, bank 2 should have been +4.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 2 banks and a mirror Does this mean that the difference of BACK / LAY odds means more than commission? Too tired right now to work that out.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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