Sandown 17/09/08

[billy the punter]

There's a rumour going around that there is a decent flat tomorrow on good ground. Surely some mistake? 3.30 Henry Cecil believes in the 'stepping-stones' theory with his best horses. He doesn't like to race them at higher levels too soon and usually likes them to run in a conditions stakes or perhaps a weaker listed event 2nd time out. He has chosen a fairly weak novice stakes (class 3) for his promising Wingwalker here. A winner on debut on easy ground he looked a decent prospect. The race has worked out well, the 2nd Delagator won NTO in a race that is also starting to work out ok, the 3rd Midnight Cruiser won comfortably NTO, the 4th Invincible Heart was 3rd Class 2 Cond stakes won by Bonnie Charlie and the 5th Mishrif won well NTO too. He should take this in his stride on the way to greater things and I've just taken what I could at around 8/13 on betfair. Wingwalker 100% of stake 1.6 betfair 4.05 Four Winds was 3rd in the race Delagator won and I thought at the time that the 1-2-3 could be decent. Both Delagator and Palavicini showed a decent turn of foot and Four Winds in 3rd was one of the only horses at Newmarket that day to figure from a low draw. The 10th won NTO but the 5th was well beaten with excuses (went off fast and didn't handle soft ground though). I'm struggling to see why Ra Junior is so much shorter than Four Winds, both look certain future maiden winners but I think they should be priced together. I've already had a little bit on but maybe I went in a little early - currently 11/4. Four Winds 100% of stake 3.75 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown 17/09/08 4.40 A decent class 4 fillies handicap and no fewer than 7 of the field have carried my money already this season. Mekong Melody ran a cracker LTO when significantly upped in class. She even looked the winner for a split second. She has been raised 4lb for the effort which is a shame, she previously looked like she would be winning again in handicap company - this hike for a 5th will make it a little tougher. Lee Miller was a big disappointment (after drifting massively) on her handicap debut at Goodwood but ran a lot better NTO when a close 3rd to Reel Buddy Star. Harsh that she has been raised 2lb for that though and now runs off a mark of 80. Could still be fairly treated though as was close to mid/high 90 horses Illusion and Red Dune (twice) earlier in the season. Not 100% sure about the visor though, or the kid on board. I've come to the conclusion that Badweia needs this step up to a mile, despite backing her over 6/7f on her previous three starts. She has run three fair races in her last three handicaps so given I expect her to improve for the trip a recent 2lb drop in the weights makes her interesting here. She has been tried over a mile once before and IMO it's close to her best form: Nottingham 9th May 2008 8.5f 1st Scuffle - form 11 since the last win come off 92 2nd Crystal Cappella - form 111 since and last win come off 93 3rd Persian Sea - won two of four starts since inc. handicap off 82 4th Badweia 5th Soft Shoe Shuffle - won two of four starts since inc. handicap off 83 8th Loveinanelevator - won maiden and rated 69 9th Calakanga - won maiden and recently ran well off a mark of 89 13th Syvilla - form 2221 since and rated mid 80s If she shows anything like this form, and she may over this trip, she will win a handicap off her new mark of 76. Aina is a filly I've been waiting for. She ran a cracker LTO at Chepstow when I backed the 1-2, she was just worn down in the finish. It was a gallant performance for a 3yo carrying 10st in heavy ground. She's gone up 3lb (now rated 76) for that but is another who is still well handicapped despite that on maiden form. Was 2nd to La Saffarine on her final maiden start, the winner won off 80 LTO. The 3rd Stalking Shadow has shown form of 11 since and won LTO off a mark of 80 also. The 18l 5th Offshore Anna recently won a handicap LTO and is now rated 73. Aina should find a race without any trouble very soon. Snowdrop Princess did me a couple of favours recently, she was crying out for headgear after travelling without winning in earlier races. I'm sure there are more races in her although she may need further than this 1m to get her head in front again. Aina 35% of stake 10 betfair Lee Miller 40% of stake 5.7 betfair Badweia 20% of stake 16.5 betfair Mekong Melody 5% of stake 14 betfair 5 horse combo inc Snowdrop Princess (didn't want to leave her out the selections but she looks less value than the other four)