jonnyb1978 Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Reading Spooners basic home system and watching it with interest i started to look into this further. With Spooners system i noticed as he was doing home games the odds would considerably lowish. (Around 2.20). A 1pt betting stakes on 10 selections would need to generate at least a 50% striker rate to even enter the profit zone. Although in the profit so well done Spooner.:D I started to think of a way to still enter the profit zone but with a less percent strike rate. So i have come up with the ingenious idea of adapting this to away games. Those teams who have not won in 4 away games. Its as simple as that. Go on Saturdays selections I picked 6 teams and 3 won. 6Pts staked and a return of about 11 pts. A healthy 40 or so percent (top of my head) which would cover any losses for another week. Not got a clue if this can work every week but here goes. On an other note 3 of these selections are the opposite of spooners as he has picked the home team so it shows the results could go either way. Midweek selections: Starting bank 100pts - 2% of bank stake pattern. Odds taken from h2hstats. (Best odds from all bookies) so in reality profit will not be as big unless you have accounts with a lot of bookies. Cardiff @ 2.78 Charlton @ 3.25 Derby @ 3.85 Plymouth @ 5.2 Bristol Rover @ 2.66 * Northampton @ 3.75 * QPR @ 3.05 * *Opposite to Spooners selections Total staked 14pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Good luck jonnyb. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Best of luck Johnny, but I think you will find that in general, teams can go a lot longer without a win away from home than they would at home. Good luck though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 15, 2008 Author Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Yes i agree, but with no wins in 4 they all cant lose (i hope) and with such the prices of the winning bets should pay for the long run of no away losses. For EG Tranmere had not won in 7 aways on Saturday but popped up with a win. So this paid for a couple of the losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Midweek selections: Starting bank 100pts - 2% of bank stake pattern. Odds taken from h2hstats. (Best odds from all bookies) so in reality profit will not be as big unless you have accounts with a lot of bookies. Cardiff @ 2.78:D Charlton @ 3.25:D Derby @ 3.85:sad Plymouth @ 5.2:D Bristol Rover @ 2.66 * :( Northampton @ 3.75 *:( QPR @ 3.05 * *Opposite to Spooners selections Total staked 14pts Good start to the system. Total of 14 pts bet with a return of 23.66 Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 14pts Total bets = 14pts Todays returns = 23.66pts Total rtns = 23.66pts Todays Profit = 9.66pts Total Profit = 9.66pts Current bank = 109.66 pts Next set of bets will be 2.20 pts rounded up to nearest penny. EDIT: Im a bit hasty. QPR play tonight so there maybe a bit more profit to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system QPR actual won so thats an extra 6.10 profit and 4 out of 7 bets up. New amended results: Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 14pts Total bets = 14pts Todays returns = 29.76pts Total rtns = 29.76pts Todays Profit = 15.76pts Total Profit = 15.76pts Current bank = 115.76 pts No of bets = 7 won = 4 Strike rate = 57.14 Yield = 112.57% Next set of bets will be 2.31 pts rounded down to nearest penny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system This weekends bets as follows Middlesborough @ 3.45 Barnsley @ 4.10 Southend @ 2.82 Northampton @ 3.85 Cheltenham @ 5.60 Bristol Rovers @ 3.10 Bournmouth @ 6.20 Notts County @ 3.55 Grimsby @ 3.80 Newcastle @ 3.90 10 selections so this should be a tester with some teams on pretty bad form. Total bet = 23.10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 20, 2008 Author Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system This weekends bets as follows Middlesborough @ 3.45:( Barnsley @ 4.10:( Southend @ 2.82:) Northampton @ 3.85:( Cheltenham @ 5.60:( Bristol Rovers @ 3.10:( Bournmouth @ 6.20:) Notts County @ 3.55 :( Grimsby @ 3.80:( Newcastle @ 3.90:( 10 selections so this should be a tester with some teams on pretty bad form. Total bet = 23.10pts Well 2 out of 10 bets. 20% strike rate. Not very good...BUT only a slight and minimal loss. So things still look posative proving that a rubbish week doe not mean big losses. Hopefully the away odds reduced the risk in losses. Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 23.10pts Total bets = 37.10 pts Todays returns = 20.83pts Todays Profit = 2.27pts Total Profit = 13.49pts Current bank = 113.49 pts No of bets = 17 won = 6 Strike rate = 35.29% Yield = 36.36% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 25, 2008 Author Share Posted September 25, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Weekends selections Im sticking with the same betting stakes (2% of bank). If i have a losing week i will use the previous weeks until i have lost 20% of total bank at the start of the losing period. Eg. My bank was 115.76 pts so 2% = 2.31. This will be my betting stake until either i reach above this then a new 2% stake will be formed or i continue to lose until i reach 20% of 115.76 = 92.61. Then a new 2% will be formed...Hope thats clear! Derby @ 3.65 Watford @ 4.40 Crewe @ 4.10 Barnet @ 3.50 Morcombe @ 3.60 West Ham @ 3.35 Stake @ 2.31 Total = 13.86pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setup Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system It's looks like a good idea, and also great odds on each bet. good luck EDIT: Here are some leagues which I believe your system will work well. Swedish 2nd Superettan Finnish 1st Veikkausliiga The reason is that if we look at the stats of these leagues in the last couple of years, we would see high away win precent. Above 30% of away wins last season in both leagues I mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system good luck jonny! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Derby @ 3.65 :D Watford @ 4.40:$ Crewe @ 4.10:$ Barnet @ 3.50 :D Morcombe @ 3.60:$ West Ham @ 3.35 :D Stake @ 2.31 Total = 13.86pts Another good return with 3 wins from 6. Total bets was 13.86 with returns of 24.25. A nice profit of 10.39.:clap Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 13.86pts Total bets = 50.96 pts Todays returns = 24.25pts Todays Profit = 10.39pts Total Profit = 23.88pts Current bank = 123.88 pts No of bets = 23 won = 9 Strike rate = 39.13% Yield = 46.86% So in only 3 sets of bets i have increased my starting book by nearly 25%. So far so good!! Next set of bets will be 2% of 123.88 = 2.48pts round up to nearest penny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system This weekends selections Crystal Palace @ 3.00 Cheltenham @ 4.80 Bristol Rovers @ 4.10 Northampton @ 3.25 Lincoln @ 3.20 Notts County @ 3.30 Grimsby @ 5.20 Middlesborough @ 3.95 Bolton also qualify but im leaving them out as i think they are playing to bad to even consider them. 8 bets @ 2.48 = 19.84pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system This weekends selections Crystal Palace @ 3.00 ;) Cheltenham @ 4.80 :( Bristol Rovers @ 4.10;) Northampton @ 3.25;) Lincoln @ 3.20;) Notts County @ 3.30;) Grimsby @ 5.20:( Middlesborough @ 3.95;) Bolton also qualify but im leaving them out as i think they are playing to bad to even consider them. 8 bets @ 2.48 = 19.84pts The best week so far. 6 out of 8 winners see's a great return of 51.58pts leaving a profit of 31.74pts. Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 19.84pts Total bets = 70.80pts Todays returns = 51.58pts Todays Profit = 31.74pts Total Profit = 55.62pts Current bank = 155.62 pts No of bets = 31 won = 15 Strike rate = 48.39% Yield = 78.56% An excellent record so far with a near 50% strike rate and near 80% yeild. The bubble should burst sometime but with 55.62 profit in just 4 sets of bets there should be enough money to cover any losses.:ok Next set of bets will be 3.11pts each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 6, 2008 Author Share Posted October 6, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Well just for information Bolton actually won so there could have been another 9.16 profit on top if i had gone along with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system No bets for a while now whilst internaltional games take place. Just hope it carries on as good as this after the little break! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris3b Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Hi jonnyb1978, Nice job ! i don't understand spooner home system, have you an exemple please ? do you think this method works with all european leagues ? thank you for your help. Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 8, 2008 Author Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Hi Chris Spooners is based on backing a home team who have not won for 2 games or more. I adapted this to away team and 4 games or more. Im not sure about other leagues as ive never tried them, but im guessing similar situations but would avoid teams who dominate their league such as Celtic, Rangers and others. I would look for a percentage away win rate above 30% and make sure the odds were suitable. Then a 30% strike rate should see you in a profit of some sort. It works well with English as apart frome the top 4. The teams in other leagues are pretty close in comparison. League 2 has a lot of away wins so some shock results are thrown in along with normal away wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Selections for 18th/19th Not very optamistic about these fixtures. Most have rubbish away record not winning in as much as 12 games, and they all seem to be playing away at the same time. The systems due a big loss as its been very profitable so far. Spurs @ 2.28 Watford @ 3.25 Notts Forest @ 5.9 Hereford @ 5.7 Bristol Rovers @ 3.95 Grimsby @ 5.0 My best hope is Spurs i think and thats not saying much with their recent form.:hope 6 Bets @ 3.11 on each = £18.66 total staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Selections for 18th/19th Spurs @ 2.28:\ Watford @ 3.25:clap Notts Forest @ 5.9:\ Hereford @ 5.7:\ Bristol Rovers @ 3.95:\ Grimsby @ 5.0:\ 6 Bets @ 3.11 on each = £18.66 total staked My thoughts came true. A rubbish week with only 1 winner. Still a mimimal loss for the week in relation to profits gained so far. Returns of 10.11 sees a loss of 8.55 Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 18.66pts Total bets = 89.46pts Todays returns = 10.11pts Todays Profit = -8.55pts Total Profit = 47.07pts Current bank = 147.07 pts No of bets = 37 won = 16 Strike rate = 43.24% Yield = 52.62% Still looking good with a yield of half of what we are staking. Next set of bets stays at 3.11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 24, 2008 Author Share Posted October 24, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system 25th and 26th selections Newcastle @ 3.4 Crystal Palace @ 3.0 Northampton @ 5.7 Cheltenham @ 5.2 Lincoln @ 3.3 Notts County @ 3.2 Morcambe @ 4.10 Again with these teams im not very hopefull. 7 bets @ 3.11 = Total of 21.77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 25, 2008 Author Share Posted October 25, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system I realised an error on the above selections. I was reading the wrong end of the form table. So selections are all wrong. The like of Northampton and notts county i was successful with a few post back so the have won in the last four games. Here are the proper selections but based on results both set of bets would result in a loss with the new ones looking slightly worse. Newcastle Doncaster Ipswich :tongue2 @ 3.4 Preston Carlisle Brighton Cheltenham Shrewsbury Luton :tongue2 @ 4.8 Morcambe Aldershot 2 out of 11 sees a poor week and but still only a loss of 8.71 Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 34.21pts Total bets = 123.67pts Todays returns = 25.5pts Todays Profit = -8.71pts Total Profit = 38.36pts Current bank = 138.3607 pts No of bets = 48 won = 18 Strike rate = 37.5% Yield = 31% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted October 31, 2008 Author Share Posted October 31, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Selections for 1st November Fulham @ 6.0 Norwich @ 4.9 QPR @ 3.5 Crewe @ 4.7 Yeovil @ 6.0 Hereford @ 8.0 Swindon @ 5.5 Carlisle @ 4.3 Chester @ 5.2 Aldershot @ 3.0 10 bets @ 3.11 = 31.10. Thats nearly all our profit so im hoping for 3 winnners with all the above at average odds of around 5.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted November 1, 2008 Author Share Posted November 1, 2008 Re: Adapted Spooner Away system Selections for 1st November Fulham @ 6.0:@ Norwich @ 4.9:@ QPR @ 3.5:@ Crewe @ 4.7:@ Yeovil @ 6.0:ok Hereford @ 8.0:@ Swindon @ 5.5:@ Carlisle @ 4.3:@ Chester @ 5.2:@ Aldershot @ 3.0:@ 10 bets @ 3.11 = 31.10. Thats nearly all our profit so im hoping for 3 winnners with all the above at average odds of around 5.0 Only 1 winner today. Thats 3 loss weeks in a row. return of 18.66 sees a loss of 12.44 Start Bank = 100pts Todays bets = 31.10pts Total bets = 154.77pts Todays returns = 18.66pts Todays Profit = -12.44pts Total Profit = 25.96pts Current bank = 125.96 pts No of bets = 58 won = 19 Strike rate = 31.04% Yield = 16.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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