Sandown 12/09/08

[billy the punter]

2.50 Triumphant Welcome is looking a little bargain. Connections paid just 800gns for him as a foal. The yard aren't know for flat runners, especially not sprinters but he was backed at long odds on his debut (at Wolverhampton) and made a pleasing introduction finishing 3rd to Night Rocket (winner off 66 NTO) with Diego Riviera (rated 69) in 2nd. Showed significant improvement on his 2nd start (g/s), turned the tables with Diego Riviera, beating him by 2l after travelling well throughout. Back on the A/W for his handicap debut and ran better than his finishing position suggests. Travelled well again but wasn't given a great ride by Stacey Renwick - it's hard for these inexperienced riders to ride around Lingfield to be fair, especially in sprints. She went very wide at the wrong time but was only beaten 1.5l. I think he may find a handicap - the drop to 5f should be no problem and the switch back to easy turf may help. Ron Harris' are running well - his form figures for all runners this month show 271032061622172 - 15 runners, 3 winners, just 6 unplaced (4 of which were 16/1 or bigger). His Best One has been fairly consistent since he was claimed out of Clive Brittain's yard. Has crept up the handicap due to four top-4 finishes lately but may've been freshened by a break (and blinkers) and chances if handling the going (one good run on heavy). Drawn 1 though, although I'm not sure if that's the problem it once was. His stablemate Don Pele interests me slightly more though. Runs off a mark of 71 here but was rated 105 at one stage, and although that was based on 2yo form he did win off 79 as recent as last September. Ran his best race for sometime on Monday, could be coming to hand and should run well - he finally may make his plummeting mark tell. Form on easy surface since last season reads 3213680272. Triumphant Welcome 35% of stake 16 betfair Don Pele 45% of stake 7.6 betfair Best One 20% of stake 12.5 betfair Plus combos

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown 12/09/08 5.05 This looks like a nice race - very open but I'm sure I'll find the winner, if I back enough in it! Mr Hichens is a horse I've followed all season, I had to put up with some frustrating defeats earlier in the season but my faith has been rewarded and since they've front run with him he has shown 111 form figures. Shot up the handicap but had so much in hand due to keeping a lot to himself early on in the season. Can't rule out even if he is effectively running off a mark of 88, especially as he seems to relish conditions. Calakanga ran well at a big price behind Crackentorp at Lingfield and could've been closer with a little more luck. 4lb lower here and she is beginning to look interesting. Hard to know what to make of Taaresh, won at 4/11 after a decent debut. It looks as though the handicapper has taken no chances with the mark of 82 but did finish in front on Crackentorp in that debut run and that horse bolted up off a mark of 80 last week. Similar can be said regarding Censored, looked better the further she went LTO and will like the even softer going here. Looks to be improving with every one and may've got in light with her mark of 80. Times Vital did my a favour LTO when hacking up on heavy ground. That race has worked out well considering he spread-eagled them and could follow up off a 7lb higher mark. Those are my five against the field but at this stage I don't know if I'll be able to play in the race - will see how the market forms and make a decision tomorrow. They go 5/2 the field here so I don't think I'm going to be able to play in this. I may mess about with combos on my fine; Censored, Times Vital, Mr Hichens, Taaresh and Calakanga. I may play small on Times Vital and/or Calakanga as I think they are the best value, although I hate picking from original selections - will be small bet if anything, basically a no bet. I will need a T/C to make the combos pay too looking at it.