Brighton 11/09/08

[billy the punter]

2.10 Liberation made and encouraging debut and is a warm order here. Obvious chances but looks a little too short in my opinion - been backed at and around 1/2 so far on betfair. Stuart Williams' are still running well and his runner in this, Adios Juan, is over priced. He was 7th of 17 on debut after making the running in the decent maiden I've spoke about before (see Donny thread) won by Wingwalker - 7f on g/s. Upped to a mile (good ground) for his 2nd start and was ridden differently (held up) finshing 6th of 11. The 2nd bolted up by 9l NTO and the 5th was touched off at Lingfield. Looks sure to win races although connections may have nurseries in mind. Should be good enough to win your average Brighton maiden however, if he'll be able to win this one is another matter though - given the strength of the jolly. No way entitled to be 4th in the betting though and if he handles the softer ground he has to run well. Adios Juan 40% of stake win 15 betfair Adios Juan 60% of stake place 2.62 betfair Liberation/Adios Juan RFC

[Spooner]

Re: Brighton 11/09/08

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Brighton 14:10
Selection	Liberation
Strength	10/10
Date	11/09/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	Liberation ran well on his first run out finishing 3rd of 16 runners. I don't think this race will be nowhere near to the standard of that race and if he reproduces that run here then Liberation really should take this quite easily. I think 4/6 is a fair price.