Doncaster 10/09/08

[billy the punter]

After a bit of self-motivation, mainly gained from the fact that it's not a total bog at a flat track for once, I'm looking at tomorrow's cards with renewed confidence. 2.00 Godolphin's horses are finally running into form with four of their last ten UK runners going on to score and they have a fine record in this race: 1999 WON 2001 3rd 2002 WON 2003 2nd 2005 WON 2007 WON (no runners in 2000, 2004, 2006) They run With Interest in this, horse who managed just two starts in his first two seasons in training. He won them both before completely missing his 4yo season - 0bviously had many problems and been hard to train. Interestingly though, he didn't wind up at the sales and Godolphin have persevered with him. They clearly thought he retained most/all of his ability and it was no surprise he was succesful in Dubai earlier in the season. Made his comeback (15 months off) in January over what now looks an inadequate 7.5f but still managed a close 4th to multiple group winner Linngari - clear of decent Traffic Guard in 5th. Stepped up on that over 10f on next two starts, firstly beating Gower Song (G3 winner and held her own in G2, G1 since) before getting the better of Alpacco a fortnight later, winning with a bit in hand despite the 2nd having his own way in front. In my eyes these Dubai runs after the best form on offer. It was another six months off the track after that though and wasn't seen until last month - in a conditions stakes at Newmarket. Managed only 4th behind Drumfire, which was a little disappointing and a lower level of form to what he has previously shown. Was clear on the 5th though and may've needed the run. Won well on his only start on soft. John Dunlop's Perks is current betfair favourite and going seems to be the key with him. Slaughtered big handicap fields on both starts on an easy surface. Up in grade here but unexposed on this going and form of last handicaped (he won by 6l) has worked out. The yard could be in better form however, they've had just three winners from their previous 44 runners (6.8% S/R). Two of those wins was the same horse and the other was a 4/11 winner. It looks between the two for me so it's a shame Flying Clarets isn't going to be a 7/4 chance as the RP suggests. She would be a big lay for me at those odds but unfortunately she is around double those odds currently on betfair. I've plumped for With Interest based on the form prior to his Newmarket run LTO - I'll give him one chance and hope he needed the run and he is actually better than LTO 4th. Also as touched on above Godolphin's are running much better than Dunlop's at the moment and their previous runners have all run well in this. Despite a likley pace from Flying Clarets this 4-runner affair is much different to the 16-runner handicaps in which Perks' best form come in - nothing to say it will hinder but it is a slight worry. I'll be having a decent sized F/C in order to save or boost profits. With Interest 100% of stake With Interest/Perks RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster 10/09/08 2.35 Benbaun takes a drop in class here and is bound to be popular. 7yo old but like many sprinters is still holding his form. Four decent runs from four over 5f so far this year: 5th to Matchand D'Or at Chatilly, beaten under 3l in the King's Stand, 2nd to Tax Free at the Curragh and 5th in the Nunthorpe. May be less effective on slower ground but does act on it and wouldn't have to be at his best to win this. He has been getting behind early in his races early and may need 6f these days - so perhaps 5f on easy ground may not be a bad thing at this stage in his career. Stable have had two winner from last four starts. This isn't my sort of bet and I hate 'obvious' selections but I'll give in and back this one at the likely price of around 6/4 as he is probably 4/6 on the pick of his form. Benbaun 100% of stake