Beverley 9/9/08

[billy the punter]

Due to the annoying weather I've had more 'days off' over the past three weeks than I've had in the previous five months of the flat season. I've mainly concentrated on the dirt over this period apart from Redcar last week. That was a great meeting for me financially and I hope I'll have similar success on first turf bets since. 3.00 (Class 3) I backed Collateral Damage at a big price LTO and wrote this before the race:

Collateral Damage has slipped to his lowest mark for some time, granted it's not a massive fall as he has spent his whole career rated in 80 => 89, but is a pound lower than when winning in March. He is fairly consistent with give. His form on an easy surface reads 3215213623203315 - just the one poor effort (in last year's Lincoln) and a place S/R of 69%. The blinkers on/blinkers off tactics recently are a worry though.

It was another good run on easy ground LTO, finishing 4th of 16 in an open class 2 at Ripon. If I break those easy ground runs down and concentrate solely on those of soft and/or heavy (ignoring G/S) it reads: 215132233. No poor runs and a placed S/R of 78% (5th of 21 and 3rd of 6 on the two unplaced efforts). He looks certain to run into the frame given the likely conditions and as it's been some time since he has run under ideal conditions off a mark this low (the last five runs above, 32233, were off marks of 87 & 88) he could turn one of those common placed efforts into a victory. I've backed Vainglory once or twice this season and he has ran well without winning at big prices. During this time he had dropped from a mark of 91 to 87. Given his record on soft/heavy I'm surprised he hasn't been campaigned on it more often, from just four runs on soft/heavy his form reads 1346 - boted up in a maiden, was a close 3rd to Vitznau at Chester, 4th of 16 behind Don't Panic at Goodwood and 6th to Blue Spinnaker after being hampered when ridder by a very inexperienced jockey. He has been very consistent in handicaps with excuses for any poor efforts and although I still think he needs some headgear, he should run another good race today. Given their style there is a big argument for backing these two E/W, I will wait until tomorrow before finalising bet type etc as there is no market at the moment. Collateral Damage NR Vainglory 50% of stake EW 6 & 2.2 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: Beverley 9/9/08 3.30 Intersky Charm was an impressive winner on his seasonal debut and although he has been winless since I'm certain there is another race in him. Isn't helped by the fact that he is always ridder by one of the worst jocks in history (Dean McKeown) - would've been closer on nearly all his races if ridder more competently. Travelled well and ran better than formline suggests when 4th to handicap good thing Rose Street LTO and is 2lb lower here. Backing him on heavy is a bit of a gamble and I can only make an educated guess regarding it's suitability. The run LTO was on G/S and his best form to date has come on fibresand. I'm prepared to take a small chance in this, mainly due to the fact that I believe he is well handicapped. Intersky Charm small EW