GOALSCORER VALUE

[Guest redchiz]

Just to prove that I don't spend ALL my time in the dry and dusty world of over/unders... This is an area that I've been dabbling in for some time, with mixed but progressively better results. It started with spread betting and the individual player goal minutes markets. This has yielded some fairly spectacular successes (remember when James Beattie embarked on his lengthy scoring run with a hat-trick against Fulham last season? - I was there!), but a lot of costly disappointments too, as is typical in the volatile nature of the beast that is spreads. You can even lose when you win in a way, as in a recent example: Mista in the Valencia/Real Madrid game on 27 September was 15-18 GMs with Cantor, not bad I thought. He duly scored, but in the 5th minute, meaning I was 'rewarded' for backing him with a loss of 13 points! But I love the idea of picking individual players out, especially in live TV games where it obviously gives you a bit of an interest. There is no special formula for selecting players, but there has to be a bit of research and an element of value. So when Michael Owen is 35-38 on the spreads, forget it, unless you're very rich, or you've got the nerve to be a seller! Whilst not eschewing the spreads entirely, I have tended in recent times to move in the somewhat calmer waters of fixed odds. One popular choice is first goalscorer and the odds can be quite attractive, superficially at least. But how many times have you dabbled in this market, only to find that your man scores at the 'wrong' time? You can hedge these bets of course e.g. I picked Danny Murphy as first AND last goalscorer at 14/1 when Liverpool played at Manchester City last season. The reasoning was that Murphy scores a few in his own right anyway, but this wasn't persuasive enough. The fact was that Michael Owen was absent and when this is the case Murphy usually takes the penalties (another salient factor). Murphy duly delivered by scoring the only goal of the game - from open play as it happens - so both bets were winners and a handsome profit was made. A very lucky outcome on this occasion, it has to be said. A more up-to-date example of how this works came just today, in a bet borne out of sheer boredom on a quiet day for football. But the information was all out there, I just had to find it. Hull v Carlisle: Hull flying high; Carlisle marooned; and yet Hull's top-scorer Ben Burgess is available to score first/last at 5/1. I backed both and he got the final goal, so a return of 5/2 in those circumstances ain't too bad, methinks. Of course if you pick out a player who scores a goal (or two or three for that matter) but somebody else scores first and last, you end up extremely p*ss*d off. But as always there is a way of covering that eventuality, although the odds will inevitably shrink. But you may be surprised at the value that still remains to be had out there. I speak of course of the anytime goalscorer market, which is available through a reasonable number of bookies. Typically - but by no means necessarily - this will be around one-quarter of the price for first/last goalscorer. Let's take another couple of examples. Peter Ndlovu, on a run of scoring goals for fun, is inexplicably offered at 3/1 by Paddy Power to score at any time for Sheffield United away to Bradford. The Bantams score first, but Ndlovu obliges minutes later with the equaliser. To add to the smugness, McCall scores the winner for the Blades so a first or last tickle on Ndlovu would have left you with nowt, whilst I am happily counting my winnings. Feeling flush on the following Sunday, I turn my attention to the Charlton v Liverpool game. The obviously-talented but usually oh-so-disappointing Vladimir Smicer appears at last to have found his form in recent games. His forward-running midfield role behind the front two seems to suit him and has seen him regularly pushing into the box. Chances of a goal, then. But will I run the risk of, say, first goalscorer at a much better price? Perhaps not, but at 7/2 to score anytime he looks fair value. Smicer scores the first goal! But you can't be too disappointed by your 'if only' when you still have a tasty return in your hand. With hindsight, it might have been worthwhile at these particular prices to back Smicer to score first AND anytime as a covering hedge. So what's the upshot of all this? Pick a likely player to score - make sure you've got some grounds, however tenuous! Check the available prices - first/last/anytime and the spreads, if that's your bag. Do some calculations as to what the various hedges may entail. Have fun!!!

[Guest bcrazy]

Re: GOALSCORER VALUE I also have some interest in the to score anytime markets but I prefer laying the longer shots (around 7/1) who havent scored all season but are up there because they have a good all round game such as Roy Keane in a match not too long ago who I layed @ 6/1 where IMO he should have been nearer 15/1. Soccerbase have great stats and layout for viewing the players goal scoring records.

[Guest Oddsfellow]

Re: GOALSCORER VALUE Bcrazy, Where is it you can lay the goalscorers? Its a market i would be interested in but have never managed to find anywhere that did it. Redchiz, Players do seem to go on runs where they will score for fun. I remember last year when Ruud started his run of games you could still get 6/4 every game for him to bag one. Any idea what the overround is on the goalscorer market?

[Guest bcrazy]

Re: GOALSCORER VALUE You can lay to score at any time at Betfair on any live games or bet on someone not to score at BlueSq. The overround on the anytime markets on BF are usually around 250% (due to the avg of just over 2.5 goals a game) but the first goalscorer markets at bookies will have overrounds at approx 150% I would guess?

[Guest Oddsfellow]

Re: GOALSCORER VALUE Thanks Bcrazy. Its a shame Betfair don't do it for all games but i suppose the markets would not have many layers.