Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08

[fintron]

Not been able to post much of late cos away on jollies, but found an internet cafe to have a little stab for tomorrow!! Kempton 5.30 Dance The Star - doesn't look to have beaten much on last two starts as the form of his maiden win at Windsor hasn't really worked out. LTO won off 77 at Lingfield, beating the 76-rated Brexca by 4 lengths. In turn that rival was 2.75 lengths clear of 74-rated Flash of Colour. So, on the basis of that form D Simcock's colt would look up against it running off 83 and stepping up in class tomorrow. However, the form that does offer some hope is a good third to Top Lock on his debut back in April. That rival has progressed well since, running credibly in group company with close placings behind Conduit and Campanologist at Ascot and then finishing second to Centennial, but infront of the well fancied Patkai, at Goodwood in one of the races switched from York. Its safe to say that Top Lock is a 100+ horse and although less impressive, Touchdown, the horse that split the pair in that Kempton maiden, did boost the form by winning subsequently (albeit in a low grade maiden). Dance the Star appears to go well on the surface, he'lll get the trip, and there could be plenty more to come from this lighly raced 3 yo. He was just over 2 lengths off Top Lock that day and that gives him a decent chance here if he continues to progress. Sporting Life Tissue price is 7/1. 1 pt win.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 Limelight 5.40 Folkestone @4.00 Paddypower GP - or greater price! Apt name considering J Guillambert should be getting more of it now last seasons joint top flat jockey Seb Sanders will miss the rest of the season after his fall yesterday. Sir Mark Prescott sends this one runner out to this meeting where he has a great 56% strike rate for 3 year olds and Limelight is a 3 year old. It has been running consistenly enough and the ground here could be key as the last time out over a distance it was rather bogged down in the mud! On a day of not much quality racing wise here in England and plenty of decent football matches distracting a lot of punters this horse may go under the radar and give us a fair price! :hope

[tgc100969]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 2.30 Kempton Amber Sunset Clear form pick and his improving with every run. Good draw and distance looks perfect. The booking of Callan is an eyecatching booking.

[RussP]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 2.40 Lingfield 11 runners expected to line up for this Class 5 handicap over 1m4f. There are 2 I'm really interested in here, the first being Apache Fort who will almost certainly be in the frame now back at this track. However, the probable SP has put me off backing this so the EW bet is: Mister Right (RPF 8/1) - Top weight here with a very good chance. Cannot be backed on recent form but I'm happy to dismiss that. Has been given a break and comes back all refreshed with an eye catching jockey booking. Has dropped to a winning mark of 70, let's look at its form off this mark or lower in handicaps - 3-2-1-4-1-2-1. Ok, much of that form is from a couple of seasons back but it shows that this horse has been battling with the handicapper for quite a while now. Another strong positive for me is the drop in grade to Class 5, 4 wins and a 2nd from 9 attempts compared with 0 wins from 20 in Class 4 and above. Preference too for left handed tracks, I really fancy this horse to return to form today and battle it out with Apache Fort for the honours. Should be available at double figures on Betfair, great chance. 0.5pts EW

[Me@Home]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 Hamilton 1.50 - Elite Land (LAY) On this handicap class 6 race the favourite Elite Land have too much opponents with better course and ability. :ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 Kemp 3.30 Mystery Star 10/1 sky 0.5 pts e.w Laughable that the post had this forecast at 20/1 at one stage. Ok theres a couple of nice ones in here but 3 year olds in handicaps at this time of the year often do well and it wouldnt surprise me if the two in this race, this one and goodlight startlight figure prominently at the end. This one has some reallt solid looking runs to her name this season and names that suggest she might not be too badly handicapped at all, I look at the run just behind collection and mystery star in particular and they read so well, I thought so at the time and I think that even more now. Two runs back travelled quite well over further before not getting home, lto was a poor run and that needs to be forgiven but he could never get into the race that day, returning to the a/w today really could help, he won his maiden well on the a/w and the horse he beat has turned into a grade 1 winner in the states no less. Certainly was never going to be 20/1.

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 2.10 Lingfield - Circadian Rhythm - LAY - RPF 13/8 Might be a risky 'lay' with the filly having finished 1st and 2nd in her last 2 races but there's enough doubts about her........ Where shall I start ? Her recent good runs have been in 15 runner fields over 10F at GL and 8F on good to soft at Yarmouth. Coming back to a smaller field on a faster track might see her unable to settle and hopefully there might be one or two too sharp for her over this speedier test. She's reported as having an abominable 'ungainly' action so first time on a new surface must be a cause for concern..........especially on a track with fairly tight bends. Her two good runs have been with 'proper jockeys' up.........will the apprentice cope with a horse with a very unusual action ? Apart from that she's carrying a penalty in a better race (though it's still very poor, the one she won at GL was atrocious) And it's her 3rd run in 8 days...........will she cope with that ? Enough doubts there I think ............:lol

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 220 Hamilton : Havnt A Clue Apt name for the first day of September, this one looks like it will a better price than origionally thought, Evens at the mo. Has much the best form and has won on this type of ground, unless Scenic Pass has improved a lot this looks like another one for the Prescott yard.

[Super Ally]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 Hamilton 16-50 ROSSINI'S DANCER Ran yesterday finished 3rd at muss..left it too late to challenge the winner who made all over same trip today and has a good draw surely hanagan will get it correct today and land the spoils NAP 1Pt Win

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08 4-30 Kempton - Holamo - each way Holamo and the short priced favourite, High Heeled, both have entries in the Group 1 Fillies Mile on the 27th at Ascot. No other horse in the field has a Group or Listed Class entry. Rio Carnival :unsure Gosdens horse, is second favourite but has no other entries at all. Imo, either somebody knows something or the market is wrong at the moment. In the topsy turvy world that is Betfair, this horse was 8/1 last night but is now about 9/2. Strangely, in the place market, somebody had £200 place on it last night at 1.38, after an early 1.7, it's now gone out again to 1.77. The number 1 stall is not the best stall at this track (well, me and Jamie Osborne think so) so an each way bet on Holamo is proabaly better value than a win bet or lay on the 'jolly' which only wins 1 point for the comp either way. 8/1 top price in the shops, and as low as 6/1 with Ladbrokes. 9.8 on Betfair, and 2.4 for a place. Good luck to all.

[stewartd14]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08

2.10 Lingfield - Circadian Rhythm - LAY - RPF 13/8 Might be a risky 'lay' with the filly having finished 1st and 2nd in her last 2 races but there's enough doubts about her........ Where shall I start ? Her recent good runs have been in 15 runner fields over 10F at GL and 8F on good to soft at Yarmouth. Coming back to a smaller field on a faster track might see her unable to settle and hopefully there might be one or two too sharp for her over this speedier test. She's reported as having an abominable 'ungainly' action so first time on a new surface must be a cause for concern..........especially on a track with fairly tight bends. Her two good runs have been with 'proper jockeys' up.........will the apprentice cope with a horse with a very unusual action ? Apart from that she's carrying a penalty in a better race (though it's still very poor, the one she won at GL was atrocious) And it's her 3rd run in 8 days...........will she cope with that ? Enough doubts there I think ............:lol

Trotter begins to think: "Maybe backing isn't such a bad idea " ;) Unlucky there mate, not the 1st one to get caught out by a Stuart Williams improver. :hope you pull it back. :ok

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day Mon 1/9/08

Trotter begins to think: "Maybe backing isn't such a bad idea " ;) Unlucky there mate, not the 1st one to get caught out by a Stuart Williams improver. :hope you pull it back. :ok

Cheers Stewart..........yes, I'm having second thoughts about this laying malarky...........it's a bit dangerous for the comp when you can lose 3 or 4 stakes at one go...........:wall I was expecting to win a pound every day.............:tongue2:lol