Beginner Questions on Systems.

[Guest Eboman]

Hi guys, first post so short intro: I started betting a year ago, got to 2K profit after 4 months :D then went rapidly down to 5K loss :o ( that would be 5000 euro's ) no one else to blame but myself, made to many mistakes on big bets. Stopped cold turkey before last summer. Now i'm back but looking for more reliable ways of betting. Have learnt some lessons already :lol I've been examining a system on horse racing, just paper trailing so far, also i consider this a learning project so the data is not to rigorous, you can even assume its imaginary. The purpose of this post is to share learning experiences, results will come later. I work with a starting bank of 1000 and use 1% per bet. This keeps the inquiry simple. I may come back to other staking plans in another thread. I fully accept info from other threads that if a system cannot make a profit at level stakes it won't on any other stake plan. * * * * No Bets* * * * Won* * * * A/Odds* * * * S/R* * * * Yield* * * * Stake* * * * Return* * * * Bank Set 1-1* * * * 19* * * * 16* * * * 1,555* * * * 84%* * * * +28%* * * * 190* * * * 243* * * * 1053 Set 1-2* * * * 15* * * * 11* * * * 1,452* * * * 73%* * * * +07%* * * * 150* * * * 161* * * * 1064 Set 1-3* * * * 16* * * * 12* * * * 1,489* * * * 75%* * * * +12%* * * * 160* * * * 179* * * * 1083 Set 1-4* * * * 16* * * * 15* * * * 1,413* * * * 94%* * * * +32%* * * * 160* * * * 211* * * * 1134 Set 1-5* * * * 22* * * * 11* * * * 1,594* * * * 50%* * * * -22%* * * * 220* * * * 172* * * * 1086 Set 2-1* * * * 19* * * * 14* * * * 1,677* * * * 74%* * * * +24%* * * * 190* * * * 236* * * * 1131 Set 2-2* * * * 17* * * * 11* * * * 1,634* * * * 65%* * * * +04%* * * * 170* * * * 177* * * * 1138 Set 2-3* * * * 17* * * * 14* * * * 1,567* * * * 82%* * * * +24%* * * * 170* * * * 211* * * * 1179 Set 2-4* * * * 16* * * * 11* * * * 1,547* * * * 69%* * * * +09%* * * * 160* * * * 174* * * * 1193 Set 2-5* * * * 19* * * * 13* * * * 1,507* * * * 68%* * * * +01%* * * * 190* * * * 192* * * * 1195 Set 3-1* * * * 26* * * * 17* * * * 1,579* * * * 65%* * * * +01%* * * * 260* * * * 263* * * * 1198 Set 3-2* * * * 20* * * * 11* * * * 1,556* * * * 55%* * * * -15%* * * * 200* * * * 170* * * * 1168 Set 3-3* * * * 15* * * * 09* * * * 1,605* * * * 60%* * * * -06%* * * * 150* * * * 141* * * * 1159 Set 3-4* * * * 19* * * * 15* * * * 1,510* * * * 79%* * * * +16%* * * * 190* * * * 220* * * * 1189 Set 3-5* * * * 19* * * * 11* * * * 1,537* * * * 58%* * * * -15%* * * * 190* * * * 162* * * * 1161 I think i got the basics right : ( see the post Staking Strategies & System's Assessment ) Starting bank: 1000 Total staked: 2750 Current bank: 1161 Stakes: 10 units ( 1% of starting bank per individual bet, in a set of 20 bets this totals 20% of the bank ! ) No of bets: 275 Winners: 191 Strike Rate: 69% Average odds: 1.548 System Overall Yield: 6% Profit: 161 First question: did i get the above right ? any comments , suggestions most welcome… I notice that if you simply calculate StrikeRate and Average odds you end up with a loss, not a profit. 69% * 1,548 = 106, 31% * 1 stake = 31 Result = 106 - 31 = 75 so a loss of 25% this is i assume because most losers are on the low end of 1,548 average and most winners are at the end above 1,548. So is there a different way to calculate the actual average odds ? i'm a bit confused here, will do some more work on this later but any suggestions most welcome. Second question: How to calculate StrikeRate and Average Odds Now then, about Yield and Profit. Is it accurate to say that profit is the number of times the bank was used times the Yield. Seems pretty basic enough, you make the Yield in profit each time the total bank is used once. ( will use level stake as percentage of starting bank, fully accept info from other threads that if a system cannot make a profit at level stakes it won't on any other stake plan ) Bank: 1000 , Stakes placed : 500 , Yield : 6% Profit = number of times the bank has been used : 1000/500 = 0,5 times Yield on starting bank = 0,06 (1000/500) * (1000*0,06) = 30 Or like in my case: Bank: 1000 , Staked: 2750 , Yield 6% , Profit: (2750/1000)*(1000*0,06) = 165 ( table shows 161 but allow some room for round-offs ) Third question: Is total Profit the Yield of the starting bank multiplied by the number of times the bank turns ? I am asking this because i want to turn things around. What if i want to go for a certain target? Like i want to double my bank in one season. Take football, 5 bets per week, 10 per weekend, for say 40 weeks, starting bank 1000 and you have a 5% yield system. So to make 1000 profit i need to turnover my bank 20 times: Yield =5% = 50 per 1000 bank turnover 1000/50 = 20 turnovers required. This means 20000 to be staked on 15*40 = 600 bets = 33 units average per bet or 3,3% of the starting bank. At this point i am disregarding average odds and strike rate since these are already part of the equasion as yield is a function of strike rate and average odds. Correct me if i'm wrong… Just checking: Bank: 1000 , Staked: 20000 , Yield: 5% , Profit: (20000/1000) * (1000*0,05) = 1000 The only question that remains is if i am willing to accept the level of risk associated with that level stake size. If so go for it, if not then lower the target so the risk does become acceptable. At this point i am not making any calculations or statements on level of risk, i fully accept from previous posts that level stakes of 1% - 3% is advised, 3% - 5% becomes pretty risky, anything above 5% is considered to risky to be part of a reliable profit making system. Fourth question: What is your approch if you want to set yourself a target ? Fifth question: Any serious flaws in all of the above ? Sixth question: I have the impression all of the above can be refrased much shorter, please have a go. Thanks for all the info in the previous posts, you've saved me a lot of time already, hope this helps others just as much.

[Guest bcrazy]

Re: Beginner Questions on Systems. Welcome to the PL Eboman :D Firstly Id suggest you lower your stakes because unless you are massively rich you shouldnt really be risking losing 5K in your 1st season of betting- just take it easy! 1) I think you got all of the above right 2)Strike rate= (100/No of bets) * Number of winning bets Average odds= All odds added together/ No of bets You will get a loss if you use the strike rate * avg odds to calculate profit if you are less successful with betting on lower odds. 3) Profit= Yield*Total staked 4) Im sure either Madmick or Joe will be along soon to answer that

[Guest Eboman]

Re: Beginner Questions on Systems. Thanks Bcrazy,

Firstly Id suggest you lower your stakes because unless you are massively rich you shouldnt really be risking losing 5K in your 1st season of betting- just take it easy!

Yep, I had to learn that one the hard way :o Thanks for the concern, i'm not rich but other than missing out on the luxury of a new motorbike losing the 5K didn't change my day to day life. In that respect i played with money i could afford to lose. It just pissed me off all summer :rollin Now back to the topic at hand... 1)2)3) and 6) I knew there was a much simpler way to say the same :D Here's where i'm confused about the Average Odds, they don't seem to have much meaning or use if calculated simply as the average of all odds used. Surely loss or profit is determined by the distribution of losses and wins within the range of odds used. All the wins on the low side and losses high and you lose. All the losses on the low side and wins on the high and you win much more than expected. So whats the point ? Isn't there a more meaningfull way to look at the range of odds, one that takes account of the distribution of wins and losses ?

[Guest madmick]

Re: Beginner Questions on Systems. Hi Eboman and welcome aboard. I'l try and get round to your questions later, but you are in good hands with bcrazy. The relevance of average odds is open to question as you have indicated. However, over a large number of bets, it will tend to average out. What it does give is an indication which can be used to compare systems - it also influences the confidence that one can have in a system. Regarding the specifics of your follow-up question, a weighted average of the odds could be calculated I suppose, based on the stakes used.

[Guest madmick]

Re: Beginner Questions on Systems. Regarding your 2nd question, you need to calculate an overall average for the odds, rather than a simple average of several 'bins' or sets. If you are going to average based on the 'sets' then you will need to weight the average by the number of bets in each. re 5th and 6th qeustions no and maybe would be my answers! re Q4. I think one is better off not working to a target in the sense that you state. I would look at the risk first of all and then stake accordingly. Otherwise you run the risk of making rash decisions to meet a target! One other piece of advice is that any serious money management plan should include a withdrawals policy/strategy, i.e. when the bank growth hits some 'magic figure' you withdraw a certain amount. This can be a target in that sense. Failure to do this means that any profit made is effectively notional. Get in your pocket and spend it!