Guest ghostdog Posted October 21, 2003 Share Posted October 21, 2003 Don't know if you are still around? I like your laying the draw system, but not having the most logical mind I'm struggling with one area. If the underdog scores first and the draw odds go in, how do you deal with it? You can't back the draw at all, or you'd lock in a loss. Happened yesterday with Blackburn-Charlton. Layed the draw at 3.6, Charlton scored and the draw was stuck at 3.5 for a long time. You back the loser at the higher price and lay them off if they equalise, as well as laying the leader, but is this enough to cover the draw liability? You also seem to leave the draw liability open for a long time after a goal. Is this because you already have a profit inherent in the position, or are waiting to get one? Hope you are still out there and can give me some advice. it's a very enjoyable system, but this aspect is hard for me to handle. Thanks a lot for the thread. It's given me some good entertainment. If anyone is interested, here is the original thread: pub112.ezboard.com/fpunte...=456.topic Help appreciated from any quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 21, 2003 Share Posted October 21, 2003 Re: Calling jablunka, (help with laying the draw) It was not a winning system, it relied on the market moving in your favour, i.e. on your judgement being correct. My advice is to forget it. If the market moves against you there is nothing you can do except possibly reduce you losses. Stick to what you know and are comfortable with is my advice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Re: Calling jablunka, (help with laying the draw) Odds, appreciate the advice, and in running is not to be messed about with big money if you don't know what you're doing (which I clearly don't), but I'm not looking for it to be a 'system' that I follow mechanically. I want to use it as a framework to learn to trade football matches, using judgement, which is what jablunka seemed to do. I'm quite prepared to take losses, and keep them in control. He seemed to do quite well, only losing with a draw or quick equaliser. I've used the 'No goal' in running market to reduce some or all of the draw risk, depending on expectations. The underdog scoring wasn't a problem for him. I admit that it is 'lay the leader' lite, and may be heading for trouble, because the betfair forum is in heated debate about that system and it's demise due to overuse. A guy called Raylin highlighted the underdog problem, and said something like you 'need more cash for the draw'. I'm not sure what he meant. Still out there Raylin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Re: Calling jablunka, (help with laying the draw) Fair enough. Why not reduce the risk to zero while learning? It's easy enough to knock up a spreadsheet to simulate your market positions and paper trade the games. That way you learn by your mistakes and it costs you nothing. If you are not an Excel hand I may be able to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Simulator Any help with that would be much appreciated. My Excel knowledge begins and ends with the fact it contains 'cells', I believe. I have the program, but it frightens me. I used to have to scroll through it in a previous life that I don't want to go back to. Can't use it properly at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Re: Simulator ghostdog, I don't mean to be smart, so please forgive me if it comes accross that way, but you will really need to be able to use such software if you want to bet successfully, particularly in a 'niche' area such as in-running. Analysis and number-crunching is the cornerstone of most systems and without the aid of Excel or something similar/more advanced, it is too tedious and time-consuming. There are a number of reasonable books and probably some on-line guides to using the program. Maybe post in General Chat and see if someone can help you. M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Re: Simulator Ghostdog, Send me an email address by PM and I will send you a copy of a crude soccer market simulator. It's crude, but it works. It certainly showed me how money I could lose. :o To anyone thinking of making their first post on the Punter's Lounge to ask for a copy of this, take my advice, don't bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Simulator/Excel Odds, thanks, that's very kind of you. Looked on your profile, and can't find a PM link. It's got MSN - . I'm coming over as a complete IT idiot here... Mick, I know, I should learn it, but I really hate the sight of it after having worked in an 'office environment'. If they called it 'gambletester' or something I'd probably know it by now. I will do it though, no point in ducking it forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 Re: Simulator/Excel The link is "Send me a message". A bit cryptic I know but......:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 Re: Simulator/Excel Tried that one, sends me to the ezboard home page and leaves me there with nowhere to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 Re: Simulator/Excel Is your own private messaging turned on? If not go to your control centre and enable your inbox. Should work then. You can post an address here if you wish as an alternative. I'll delete it when I pick it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RamWall Posted October 24, 2003 Share Posted October 24, 2003 Help with laying the drawer Hi Ghost Re;the Charlton /Blackburn game and failure of the drawer price . Ive been caught many a time doing the same thing in the past and losing quite a bit in the process with the obsession of trying to "Go all Green".I only really began making profits by changing my strategy and accepting smaller returns but accepting that I will make small losses on the way too.Based on my experience so far I`d like to offer just a bit of advice that I hope helps. 1)Never look to make a killing on the one game as emotions intefere and logic goes out of the window along with loads of your cash. 2)Take a view of a particular game and bet on the outcome that you feel is most likely (i.e regarding the above mentioned game I backed the drawer). with an amount of money that you would be comfortable losing so that emotions do not take over. 3)Back and lay accordingly to either protect your winnings or minimise your loss. 4)Look to guarantee a profit as quickly as poss.Dont wait for the big number cos it rarely comes in but chasing it will guarantee big losses. 5)if you cant paper trade play with small money until you find a system that you are comfortable with and have set targets of all outcomes in mind .Do not hang on and risk that £100 win when you can secure a £20 profit.It only takes a second for that equaliser to go in and believe me it does more often than not.!!!! 6)Have Fun ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 26, 2003 Share Posted October 26, 2003 Re: Woeful weekend Sorry for the delay in getting back. I support Leicester, so didn't really have the heart to look at anything to do with football yesterday. Couldn't bring myself to watch it on the premiership last night. Absolute season wrecking disaster. Odds, PM sent, thanks for the help. Ramwall, I agree, if you get suckered into leaving positions open you can wave goodbye to the cash. I've been dragged into doing that a few times recently, but it's only because of this underdog scoring first situation. I try and square it up, usually screw it up and then get tempted to leave it. But no more. It's frustrating, because this laying the draw approach should be a small winner/no loss as soon as any goal goes in. As far as I remember Jablunka was claiming that if the draw comes in, you can lay both sides, and back the draw. But this doesn't make sense to me, because you have to back the team that has conceded, and you can't back the draw without locking in a small loss. I'm missing something somewhere. I guess I'll leave this approach and take a view. Did it yesterday on Man U-Fulham at half time, but the Leicester result took away any profit/pleasure in that one. I was green on Leicester, flat on Wolves and the draw. Talk about sick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest raylin47 Posted October 26, 2003 Share Posted October 26, 2003 Tips on laying the draw I have been quite successful over the weeks even though a number of 0 -0 results My tips are 1 . Always bet on the drawer 3 or 4 days before the game asking odds of 0.3 over what you envisage the draw odds will be at the start of the game These odds can be found from oddschecker.com ie 100 units bet at 3.7 return = 270 if bet is taken lay the draw at 100 units the day of the game at say 3.5 possible loss 250 units Once this has been taken then place your lay bet ie 20 units at 3.5 = 20 units if home team wins 20 units if away team wins 50-20 units loss if draw This represents a draw lay bet odds of 2.5 instead of 3.5 Always bet on the 0-0 draw to cover the no scoring results 2 . If the underdog scores don't be greedy just cover your draw using 4 units and then 2 units on the none scoring team 3 If the game stays at 1-0 be patient and wait until the draw odds have increased then either lay the winning team or bet on the draw 4 If the under dog scores again lay that team 5 Always bet with your head and not your heart 6 Since following this system I have won consistently between 4 to 10 units with my biggest win of over 200 units I did not bet on the Wolves game yesterday but most people following the system would have made a killing. If you follow this system select games where the starting odds are less than 3.6 then the under dog scenario should not arise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted October 28, 2003 Share Posted October 28, 2003 Re: Tips on laying the draw Raylin, thanks for getting back on this one. It's an interesting approach. Hope you don't mind a few questions? Do you only risk your initial trade profit for the lay? ie. 20 units profit. Does the price ever go against you before the game? What % of the lay liability do you cover with the 0-0? If it was still 0-0 after 70 minutes I used to get out of the lay in one go, budgeting to lose 25%. I'd then use the 'no goal' in the 'Next goal' market to reduce or stop the loss. Of course, you run the risk of a goal going in. Sometimes I'd leave the 'no goal' running, sometimes just reduce the loss. The over 3.6 figure. Do you always follow this advice or do you make good returns despite ignoring it? (You know what it's like, easy to convince yourself the game will work out). What % are losers, and what's the average unit loss? Do you only go on big TV games? There's an ongoing row on the betfair forum, with people saying that the original lay the leader idea was restricted to big games. There are so many people on the system now that some claim it's profitable to back the leader, especially on smaller games. As the main guy claims the system is 13% profitable on turnover, it's hard to see it turning into a loser overall though. Might be interesting next Sunday if Leicester score first against Blackburn. Plenty waiting to get on the bandwagon are going to see it as their best chance. Thanks for the post Raylin, glad to see someone making money with system trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest raylin47 Posted October 30, 2003 Share Posted October 30, 2003 LAY BET SYSTEM hi ghost dog So many questions, the best way I can answer this is by giving you my trade figures for Blackburn Liverpool game 3 days before the game I bet 100 unit on blackburn at 3.6 I backed the draw at 3.6 100 points .and 100 points at 3.55 All bets were taken giving me Blackburn 260 units the draw 515 units and liabability off 300 units Liverpool I then layed Blackburn at 100 units at 3.35 and 200 units 3.50 units All bets were taken giving me no liability on Liverpool 25 units profit if Blackburn won and 15 units if a draw occurred I then layed the draw at 20 points at 3.4 which was taken This gave me a profit of 35 points if Blackburn won 20 points if Liverpool won and liability of 48-15 =32 units I then cover the draw 0-0 with 3units at 11.00 giving me a liability and 2 units if a draw occurred I then sat back and traded during the game ending up with a profit of 15 points I have only mis- judge the draw once I bet 100 on at 3,6 and the draw went out in price to 3.7 this gave me a loss of 10 points on the draw I win 90 % of the time and max loss was 20 units average loss 5 units average win approx 6 units if I don't include the 200 unit win which was a fluke regards ray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ghostdog Posted November 5, 2003 Share Posted November 5, 2003 Re: LAY BET SYSTEM Thanks Ray, got it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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