Great Leighs 28/08/08

[billy the punter]

2.30 Before The Little Fizzer's last race at Brighton I wrote this:

The Little Fizzer has recently joined the Evans yard and she is looking increasingly well handicapped. Only beaten 5l in a much better race, off a 3lb higher mark, LTO and ran to a mark of around mid-60s when 3rd to Hurrican Hen in a claimer before that. Has ran ok on all handicap starts off higher marks including some close runs off marks of 64 and 63. Must go close here off 52. Bye Baby Bunting ran well over this trip here two runs ago and is worth another try at it. Was backed off the boards to win a maiden here a few runs back and was 3rd at Kempton earlier in the year off 62. Her best run was probably the 4th in a maiden at Lingfield in March: 1st Commander Cave - now rated 98 2nd August Gale - narrowly beaten on handicap debut off 79 3rd Irish Music - now rated 69 4th Bye Baby Bunting 5th Tripod Molly - 12l winner off 56 Now Bye Baby Bunting has clearly regressed but if she shows anything near this form (or the 3rd at Kemton) then she would win this in a canter as she runs off a mark of just 45. I know this is a real low grade race and these are really low grade horses but I really believe that I'm on 4 horses slung in at the weights and at the prices I must have a big bet here.

The result was: 1st Cryptonite Diamond 2nd The Little Fizzer 3rd Spic N Span 4th Bye Baby Bunting The Little Fizzer looked all over the winner until getting collared late on. Bye Baby Bunting won a better race NTO proving that this race was decent for the grade and that I was correct regarding that ones handicap mark. If I'm correct about The Little Fizzer then she will surely make her lenient mark of 53 pay soon. Acts on dirt (only win to date was at Kempton and 3rd and 4th after that off 11lb higher mark). The Little Fizzer 100% of stake

[billy the punter]

Re: Great Leighs 28/08/08 3.30 (Class 3) Boz has been kind to me so far in his short career, I always seem to catch him right. A winner of 6 of 7 his A/W starts in handicaps he has been allowed to cope with rising marks due to his running style. This season however there have been three poor runs inbetweens wins. The first time visor did the trick two runs ago (flopped in it LTO) and now blinkers are tried. Obviously something has been amiss lately but I will give him a chance back on the dirt with the headgear - the race won't take a lot of winning with Crete and Jagger (talented but hard to win with) at the head of the market. The mark of 88 doesn't bother me, it's just whether or not he can be trusted after those dismal efforts. Always Bold started his racing on the A/W and his lost his maiden tag at Wolverhampton (winning easily). Struggled in turf handicaps to start with before winning two on the spin in July, showing a good attitude. Hard task NTO at Goodwood when trying to go with the lightning early pace but perhaps a little disappointing LTO when only a 9.75l 6th at Newmarket last Saturday. That was a puzzling effort and I've not sure if he is in form at the moment - typical of plenty of Johnston runners at the moment. I'll take a chance has he clearly acts on the A/W and perhaps a return to it will help. Jagger and Crete are likely to be fancied, they are talented and fairly handicapped but are so hard to win with. Crete is 2/2 when ridden by Michael Hills and he takes the mount here. 3rd on his only A/W start so far although Haggas seemed to think the track didn't suit. This A/W track and surface may suit better than Lingfield but run possibly his worst race when last tried over this trip. If he can be coaxed into staying he will go close. Tighnabruaich has been crying out for this sort of trip but fitness and ability to act on the surface a worry. Minimal stakes in a tight race. Boz 60% of stake 9.6 betfair Always Bold 40% of stake 14.5 betfair