Interesting Cooler endgame situation

[slapdash]

For those who haven't played these, the final five in a Cooler STT win double their stake, the other five get nothing. Going into this hand, we're down to six players, so one more to be eliminated. ***** Hand 1211029373 ***** 150.00/300.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 26 August 2008 01:11:18 Cooler (Real/Tournament) Seat 2: mii911 (7559.00) Seat 3: EdsonCanoe (1645.00) Seat 5: liowig (0.00) Seat 6: PLslapdash (1710.00) Seat 9: FSPKR (1255.00) Seat 10: imlennon (1483.00) mii911 post SB 150.00 EdsonCanoe post BB 300.00 ** Deal ** mii911 [N/A, N/A] EdsonCanoe [N/A, N/A] liowig [N/A, N/A] PLslapdash [6d, 2h] FSPKR [N/A, N/A] imlennon [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** liowig All-in 1348.00 PLslapdash Fold FSPKR Fold imlennon Fold mii911 Call 1348.00 EdsonCanoe Call 1348.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [10d, 4s, 3c] *** Bet Round 2 *** mii911 Bet 300.00 EdsonCanoe Fold *** Turn(Board): *** : [10d, 4s, 3c, Kd] *** River(Board): *** : [10d, 4s, 3c, Kd, Ks] *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 4044.00 mii911 [Qh, Qs] Two pair kings and queens Win: 4044.00 EdsonCanoe Fold Win: 0.00 liowig [Ad, Js] Pair of kings Win: 0.00 PLslapdash Fold Win: 0.00 FSPKR Fold Win: 0.00 imlennon Fold Win: 0.00 After the hand, EdsonCanoe called mi911 an idiot for betting on the flop. Was he?

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

After the hand, EdsonCanoe called mi911 an idiot for betting on the flop. Was he?

Yes! If Edson wins the hand, then mi911 effectively wins the tournament. By getting Edson to fold, he is losing his own win equity. The added chips are pretty insignificant that he wins if he gets Edson to fold a winning hand that wasnt beating liowig. Having said that - the error for mi911 is probably a pretty small one - it's hard to see him not winning the tournament. In mi911's shoes I'm probably raising all in pre flop 100% of the time with any 2 cards for unopened pots - because the other 5 are so close - they should probably all fold 100% of the time, even with aces!! However that strategy for mi911 is probably a mistake too - just folding everything should win you the tournament 99.9999% of the time - it's hard to see any actions increasing your equity..... To get such a large stack, I would be pretty confident mi911 is a pretty bad player and has made some large mistakes earlier in the tournament :unsure

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation I think you're right that mii911 is a pretty bad player (I've Sharkscoped him! :D), and I'm pretty sure that he didn't have a solid well-thought-out reason for betting. But should he be expecting that EdsonCanoe would fold, bearing in mind that he'd be left with next to nothing if he folds and liowig wins the pot? We don't know what EdsonCanoe had, but what hands should he be folding with where he has a non-trivial chance of winning the pot with pocket queens beaten into third place (which is the only scenario where mii911's bet makes a difference)? Also, you're obviously right that whatever mii911 does here (apart from folding!) is at most a tiny mistake, as he's almost certain to make the last five whatever happens. I'm wondering if his bet is wrong for "meta" reasons. In this form of poker, you don't want to make enemies, as it's a big disadvantage if somebody "targets" you.

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

In mi911's shoes I'm probably raising all in pre flop 100% of the time with any 2 cards for unopened pots - because the other 5 are so close - they should probably all fold 100% of the time, even with aces!!

BTW, this is a fascinating aspect of this form of poker. There's a big difference in game-theoretic terms between two-player games and multi-player games. In a two-player game, if your opponent plays sub-optimally, then that always benefits you. But in a multi-player game, it might not. This applies to all forms of poker, but it is far more commonly an issue in Cooler tournaments. Quite often you could go all-in and your opponents "should" all fold, but if they'll call with hands that they "should" fold then it's a mistake for you to go all-in: if they call your all-in then the other players benefit and you both lose on average. If you're often playing against the same players, I wonder if it's right to make the occasional "loose" call just to stop them going all-in too often in the future.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation Did anyone other than the pre-flop folders play this hand well? liowig putting his tourney life on the line UTG with AJo? Fair enough sitting on the button or the SB and it having folded round to you, but UTG? Like already said, Mii911 needs do nothing at all and will coast into the money, Queens or no Queens, Aces or no Aces. As for EdsonCanoe, I think his play was the worst of the lot. Mii911 had already called the all-in bet before Edson put his chips in also, no need at all. Let Mii911 take him out if he has the goods. If you're putting 1300 of your 1600 chips into the pot and can't back it up with the remainder on a 10-high rainbow flop, then the first 1300 shouldn't have went in to begin with. ??

[Valiant23]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

After the hand, EdsonCanoe called mi911 an idiot for betting on the flop. Was he?

No. Without implicit spoken collusion, how does mi911 know that EdsonCanoe is going to play ball and check it down to the river? With a couple of hundred chips left I'm quite sure that he'll go all in when he has the better hand. Also, if by some chance that liowig wins the hand, by betting E.C. out of the hand surely he's ensured that either one player is out (the all in) or that E.C. is going to be pretty much crippled.

[starshine]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation No, I don't think so I can not understand why Edson called think he should just have either put all in from beginning or folded completely and just wait what happens. I think that is typical cooler problem anyway. What to do with lots of chips. So I think mi 911 was right. Specially when only 6 left it seems a typical cooler thing not to play the cards anymore and just the position, with fold or check and no raise. Of course the big stacks using there chips sometimes, but that is better than going on sit out. So it might have been not very polite of mi911 to bet, and not the typical cooler doing but if the word idiot should be used than I think it could fit for both mi911 and edson. So edson is not right he played bad himself. Sorry for my bad english, hope everyone understands what I mean

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

liowig putting his tourney life on the line UTG with AJo? Fair enough sitting on the button or the SB and it having folded round to you, but UTG?

I don't mind the shove with AJo. He's just about to be hit by the blinds, which will seriously reduce his fold equity. The big stack had been raising the majority of hands, so it's quite likely that this will be his best opportunity for a while. It's very unlikely that he'll be called, except by the big stack. While position is a factor in deciding when to shove, it's not nearly as important a factor in the late stages of Coolers, just because your fold equity is so enormous.

Also, if by some chance that liowig wins the hand, by betting E.C. out of the hand surely he's ensured that either one player is out (the all in) or that E.C. is going to be pretty much crippled.

But E.C. would still be pretty much crippled if they checked it down, unless there's a split pot.

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation Another one. Down to the last six in a €50 cooler, so one more to be eliminated before the last five share the dosh. It's early in the blind level, so it's probably going to be all over before the blinds go up. NappaKeijo has been the big stack for a while, and hasn't been using his stack particularly aggressively (he's been raising maybe 25% of hands). What should I do? I think it's quite close. And no, it's not a bad beat story. What I did worked (i.e., I cashed), but I'm not sure I did the right thing. ***** Hand 1271796371 ***** 150.00/300.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 10 October 2008 18:20:32 Cooler (Real/Tournament) Seat 1: NappaKeijo (5111.00) Seat 2: slapdash1 (1580.00) Seat 4: EricN84 (1605.00) Seat 5: Quarkis (1326.00) Seat 6: iocisono! (2798.00) Seat 10: Montipapa (2580.00) slapdash1 post SB 150.00 EricN84 post BB 300.00 ** Deal ** NappaKeijo [N/A, N/A] slapdash1 [Kh, Ks] EricN84 [N/A, N/A] Quarkis [N/A, N/A] iocisono! [N/A, N/A] Montipapa [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** Quarkis Fold iocisono! Fold Montipapa Fold NappaKeijo Raise to 4800.00 slapdash1 ????

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation I would guesstimate that you're an 80% favourite against his range if you call and if you win you are effectively safe (I presume) - so the question is - are you less than or greater than 80% if you fold? It's difficult for anyone else to say without having played these and knowing how low people will wait :unsure Chances of bubbling? I would say you are pretty equal with Eric (he has a SB next, but you'll be paying blinds before him after that). Quarkis is a big favourite - maybe twice as likely as either you or eric. Other players should be unlikely to come into contention. :unsure So that makes you about 25%, Eric 25% and Quarkis 50%. Obviously these are very very very rough approximations, and it still comes out close - but I put you on about 80% to qualify if you call, and 75% if you fold - I think it's a call (just), but neither a call or a fold are big mistakes.

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation Maybe the 80% should be a bit lower :unsure You are a 20% dog against aces You are an 80% fav agains an underpair you are 78% against something like T9s 82% against AK about 71% against any other ace (his most likely holding?) Ok - against his range I'm downgrading my estimate to 75% :tongue2 So it makes no difference if you fold or call :tongue2

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation We can say that your chances of winning a tourney are equal to the proportion of chips you have of those in play. Can we therefore say that the inverse of this is equal to your chances of finishing last? (obviously assuming no skill differentials) :unsure I think we can :unsure in which case we can better estimate your equity if you fold (you're left with 1430? Blinds not already deducted?) as 1-(1430/15000)=90.5% - so that's obviously pretty significantly larger than I thought ..... in that case a clear fold :unsure Hows that? I've given 3 different answers now ;) But, chris :tongue2, that's my final answer - I think it's a fold :ok

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

Chances of bubbling? I would say you are pretty equal with Eric (he has a SB next, but you'll be paying blinds before him after that). Quarkis is a big favourite - maybe twice as likely as either you or eric. Other players should be unlikely to come into contention. :unsure

I think you're underestimating the chance that one of the medium stacks will bubble. They're to the right of the big stack, so it's dangerous for them to steal, whereas it's safer for the small stacks to steal. And it won't take many steals to even things up a bit. On the other hand, I think you're probably overestimating how big an advantage Eric and I have over Quarkis. I called and won. But afterwards I thought that I probably hadn't taken enough consideration of the fact that the big stack was not being overly aggressive. Apart from the fact that this makes his range on this hand a bit stronger, it also means that I'm much more likely to be able to use my favourable position on his left to steal later on.

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation My maths is wrong - the smaller your chip stack the greater your chance :lol :lol :lol :lol I need to work this through a bit...... but I like my train of thought :tongue2

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation Villains range doesnt make that big a difference. If he's 25% overall, then on the button in an unopened pot, we can assume he's significantly looser? However, using pokerstove, against top 25% of hands you are 76% Against 30% you are 77.3% 40% = 78.1% 50% = 79.1% 70% = 80.8%

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

My maths is wrong - the smaller your chip stack the greater your chance :lol :lol :lol :lol I need to work this through a bit...... but I like my train of thought :tongue2

My head hurts :wall :wall :wall I think there's quite a simple way of approximating (obviously a lot of caveats and assumptions - but a better estimation than I came up with) your chances of finishing last at this stage - but I cant work out how :wall :wall :wall :wall Suspect I just cannot see the wood for the trees - slap will rescue me ;)

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

My maths is wrong - the smaller your chip stack the greater your chance :lol :lol :lol :lol I need to work this through a bit...... but I like my train of thought :tongue2

You could use ICM, though I don't know of any ICM calculators that can deal with 5 places paid. But in any case, I suspect that positional considerations and playing style of other players (escpecially big stacks) makes a big difference in this kind of situation, and ICM doesn't take account of those.

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation ok - in that case - as you have experience of these games ;) what's your judgement on your equity if you fold? Quarkis has to get it in soon - if he lets these blionds go, then he's down to below 1000 chips and has very very little fold equity - if he gets it in, he's probably a flip over 1 opponent (and worse over multiple callers) - if he doesn't get it in, he has little fold equity and so probably has multiple opponents and is less than 50% to win the hand - I'd make Quarkis odds on to go out :unsure

[slapdash]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

ok - in that case - as you have experience of these games ;) what's your judgement on your equity if you fold?

Well, that's the question! :D Somewhere around 75%, I'd say, but there are so many factors that affect it that it's a pretty complex question. When I made the decision, I estimated that I was around 75% to win the hand if I called. Possibly the fact that even if I win the hand I'm not sure to cash (though I must be 95% at least) is enough to tip the balance.

Quarkis has to get it in soon - if he lets these blionds go, then he's down to below 1000 chips and has very very little fold equity - if he gets it in, he's probably a flip over 1 opponent (and worse over multiple callers) - if he doesn't get it in, he has little fold equity and so probably has multiple opponents and is less than 50% to win the hand - I'd make Quarkis odds on to go out :unsure

If they're patient, short stacks do better than you'd think. Especially if they don't have big stacks to their right, they get walks in the big blind surprisingly often (because the players to their right have a lot less fold equity against a short stack and will be reluctant to risk crippling themselves). And for the same reason, they still have fold equity even when they're very short: it's not unusual to see a short stack win the blinds with a 3xBB all-in bet.

[robilaruk]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

For those who haven't played these, the final five in a Cooler STT win double their stake, the other five get nothing. Going into this hand, we're down to six players, so one more to be eliminated. After the hand, EdsonCanoe called mi911 an idiot for betting on the flop. Was he?

Yes, their is no side pot and he gains nothing by driving the other guy out - its realy obvious thet you are better to check this down and hope that between you that you knock the AI player out. Most odd Damo

[GaF]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation Good to see you Damo :ok

[robilaruk]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation

Good to see you Damo :ok

Cheers - nice to be back:ok Damo

[avongirl]

Re: Interesting Cooler endgame situation :cowWelcome back :ok