Ripon 25/08/08

[billy the punter]

3.00 Northern Bolt is hard to assess. He won his final 2yo well but has since beaten only 7 of his 48 rivals. All the defeats come on a quick surface wheres his win come on g/s ground. Is interesting back on slower ground but it's a leap of faith to suggest the change in ground will bring a turnaround in form - at the price though it's worth taking a chance. I just have a feeling he will bounce back to form soon and pop in at a price, having dropped down the handicap to a mark of 78 he looks very well treated on his maiden win: 1st Northern Bolt 8-13 2nd Elizabeth Swann 8-11 btn 2l (now rated 98) 3rd Daring Dream 9-2 btn 5l (now rated 70) 4th Hamish McGonagall 8-11 btn 6l (now rated 96) they were clear of the remainder. I've backed Moonage Daydream on his last four starts and he finally come good LTO at a nice price. Perhaps the tongue-tie made the difference. I wasn't certain if he could run up a sequence but he has only been raised 3lb. Stablemate Hazelrigg bolted up on his racecourse debut and he looked a decent prospect. Went off a warm order for his handicap debut but lost his race in the stalls - I instantly decided to forgive him that run. Was off the course for nearly two months after that but put in a decent effort on his next start at Newmarket on ground quicker than ideal. Was a 2l 6th to Danish Art - was a little unlucky in running, was short of room when making his challenge and would've gone close. Was dropped 2lb for his run LTO and was a close 3rd at Haydock (2nd won NTO off a higher mark). Raised 2lb for that effort and back to his original allotted mark of 75 - not only does he looks fairly treated on what he has achieved I believe he is capable of much better form. Hazelrigg 60% of stake 4 betfair Moonage Daydream 20% of stake 7.4 betfair Northern Bolt 20% of stake 8 betfair Plus combos. Will add prices when more money is available.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ripon 28/08/08 4.10 Ripon (Class 2) Nothing initially stands out for me in this field but I'm hoping to find some value selections. I didn't notice Mangham as a 2yo but he has impressed me for his new yard this season, running consistently. This is a very different test (17 runner handicap) to what he has faced so far but he has only been raised 3lb for his recent win and I think a mark of 83 should be well within his capabilities. He just looks like a decent horse to me and I fully expect him to be a 90 horse in the future. His ability to be effective in this type of race has to be taken on trust however. Collateral Damage has slipped to his lowest mark for some time, granted it's not a massive fall as he has spent his whole career rated in 80 => 89, but is a pound lower than when winning in March. He is fairly consistent with give. His form on an easy surface reads 3215213623203315 - just the one poor effort (in last year's Lincoln) and a place S/R of 69%. The blinkers on/blinkers off tactics recently are a worry though. Mountain Pride was massively disappointing on his first two starts this year when failing to stay 10f - which was a surprise to be fair. Much more at home back at a mile since, winning an average Sandown handicap (for the grade) before catching the eye in 6th in a decent race at Goodwood despite drifting in the market. Coco Bay likes to front run and I'm hoping him and Mangham do not cut eachother's throat. He run well in a decent race LTO and although he is possibly a little high in the weights his mile form on an easy surface reads 1113. Bolodenka took advantage of a dropping mark when winning this last season. 6lb higher today but run well on reappearance and although all his winning has come on a quicker surface he does have soft and g/s form. Raptor hasn't been easy to win with since coming to the UK but there are excuses for his last four efforts (draw/wrong at the weights twice/going). Has some good handicap form though, 4th in last year's Lincoln and run much better than the formline suggests in last year's Cambridgeshire. Interesting now he has slipped to a mark of 96 and will appreciate the ground. Will edit this post tomorrow and add the actual selections when the market has formed properly. Mangham 30% of stake 12.5 betfair Collateral Damage 20% of stake 21 betfair Mountain Pride 25% of stake 14.5 betfair Coco Bay 10% of stake 17.5 betfair Bolodenka 10% of stake 14 betfair Raptor 15% of stake 21 betfair Plus combos