Hamilton (eve) 22/8/08

[fintron]

7.20 They say in racing that the going is one of the most important factors to account for don't they and looking at Grazeon Gold Blend I can't decide whether todays soft going will inconvenience. The course passed an inspection this morning so it looks like the race will go ahead, but GGB's recent form has come on good ground or faster. In the past he he won on Gd/Sft, Sft at Bev and finished a fair second on identical ground at Thirsk. In subsequent tries on slow ground he has fared less well but I'm not sure whether that was because of other underlying factors. For example, when he ran at York in Aug '06 he was running at a higher class off a fairly high mark and was held up. His recent promising form has been when he has raced much more prominently. He tackled heavy ground at Ripon earlier in the year, when he dwelt and was behind. He made some late headway but never reached a challenging position. Again, his poor placing (5th of 7) may possibly have been avoided had he raced more prominently (or was his held up position a result of the ground??). If you could confidently ignore the possible problem that today's going presents then you would have to say that J Quinn's gelding would have very good claims for this class 4 handicap running off what looks a competitive mark of 77. He was a course and distance winner just over a month ago off 75 when he had Katie Boo (who reopposes here 2 lb better off than last time when there was 2 lengths between them) back in 3rd. That race was a class 5 affair but he was subsequently stepped up to two class 3 races and he held his own on each occassion. He was rated 75 for his race at Doncaster but found 85-rated Dressed to Dance and 77-rated Bel Cantor too good. He then ran off the same mark at Ripon when 84-rated Harbour Blues and 86-rated Bond City finished infront. That looked an above average race though and both Great Charm and Prior Warning, the two immediate ones he had behind, were rated 89 and 95 respectively. In those last two races he's been less than two lengths off the winner but dropping down to class 4 level the highest rated horse he will face is rated 80 today. With PJ McDonald's 3 lb claim he's effectively racing off a mark 1 lb lower than when registering his CD win. He's 8/1 today anyway so I'm prepared to have a little go at the price and hope he handles the ground.