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Paulinho's multi-system fun


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Guest paulinho

just carrying on something i tried for the last bit of last season, altho i didn't post em then. basically, i'm trying to see if its worthwhile betting consistently on markets i usually ignore, goalscorers, correct score, under/over and draws. initially i had some more, but they were looking a bit rubbish after the first 50 odd bets so i've ditched them for this season. all stakes 1 point, starting bank 100 points. all 4 showed a profit after between 50 and 75 bets for last season, but for the purposes of this thread i'll start em all off again. (this also helps the correct score system which was *slightly* distorted by hitting 6 of the first 7 then followed by 2 out of 30 yet still showing huge profit) opening selections to follow

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Guest paulinho

Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 1. pompey vs villa - allback - 13/8 :( 2. charlton vs man city - anelka - 11/8 start bank: 100 bets: 2 winners: current bank: 98 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 1. man utd vs arsenal - 2-1 - 9.5 :( 2. blackburn vs wolves - 1-0 - 7.0 :( 3. leicester vs southampton - 0-2 - 13.0 :( start bank: 100 bets: 3 winners: 0 current bank: 97 _________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 1. blackburn vs wolves - under - 1.94 :( 2. fulham vs boro - under - 1.83 :( 3. liverpool vs chelsea - over - 1.95 start bank: 100 bets: 3 winners: current bank: 97 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 1. fulham vs boro - 3.42 :( 2. pompey vs villa - 3.42 :( 3. charlton vs man city - 3.42 4. leeds vs newcastle - 2.47 5. birmingham vs spurs - 3.42 :( start bank: 100 bets: 5 winners: current bank: 95 _________________________________________________ will update yield etc when it gets going:( edit: bit of an inauspicious start, even ditched saints-leicester as a draw in favour of skates-villa. home team loyalty eh?

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Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun oops, i was merely getting carried away with all the unhappy faces. cheers jamdog. in a way i want these to fail, esp the correct score stuff (given the nature to go on big losing runs), cos i'm not sure i want to (can afford to) be staking this stuff on top of the normal 1x2 betting each week, but if theres money to be made...

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Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun damn thing wont let me edit it, so... TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 1. pompey vs villa - allback - 13/8 :( 2. charlton vs man city - anelka - 11/8 :) start bank: 100 bets: 2 winners: 1 current bank: 100.38 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 1. man utd vs arsenal - 2-1 - 9.5 :( 2. blackburn vs wolves - 1-0 - 7.0 :( 3. leicester vs southampton - 0-2 - 13.0 :( start bank: 100 bets: 3 winners: 0 current bank: 97 _________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 1. blackburn vs wolves - under - 1.94 :( 2. fulham vs boro - under - 1.83 :( 3. liverpool vs chelsea - over - 1.95 :) start bank: 100 bets: 3 winners: 1 current bank: 98.95 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 1. fulham vs boro - 3.42 :( 2. pompey vs villa - 3.42 :( 3. charlton vs man city - 3.42 :( 4. leeds vs newcastle - 2.47 :) 5. birmingham vs spurs - 3.42 :( start bank: 100 bets: 5 winners: 1 current bank: 98.47 _________________________________________________ will update yield etc when it gets going edit: bit of an inauspicious start, even ditched saints-leicester as a draw in favour of skates-villa. home team loyalty eh?

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Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 3. newcastle vs man utd        van nistelrooy        2.00 4. bolton vs blackburn        jansen        2.63 5. man city vs pompey        anelka        2.10 6. soton vs birmingham        phillips        2.38 7. wolves vs charlton        di canio        3.00 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 4. chelsea vs leicester        2-0        8.00 5. aston villa vs liverpool        1-2        9.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 4. newcastle vs man utd        over        0.79 5. man city vs portsmouth        over        0.77 6. wolves vs charlton        under        0.97 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 6. Everton vs Fulham        2.57 7. Tottenham vs Leeds        2.30 8. Wolves vs Charlton        2.40 _________________________________________________

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Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 8. liverpool vs tottenham        owen        0.90 9. man utd vs wolves        scholes        1.63 bets: 7 w/l: 3/4 current bank: 100.00 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) bets: 5 w/l: 0/5 current bank: 95.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 7. blackburn vs man city        over        0.86 8. leicester vs middlesbroughunder        0.80 9. charlton vs everton        over        1.00 10. liverpool vs tottenham        under        0.95 bets: 6 w/l: 2/4 current bank: 97.74 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 9. Leeds vs Southampton        2.40 10. Leicester vs Middlesbrough        2.38 11. Portsmouth vs Bolton        2.40 12. Charlton vs Everton        2.33 bets: 8 w/l: 1/7 current bank: 95.47 _________________________________________________ carnt be arsed with all the exciting stats right now, given the early stage

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Guest paulinho

Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun just realised the draw odds are 1 less too, ah well. another coupla quick things: liverpool vs tottenham - 2-1 - 8/1 postiga to score - 3.25

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Guest paulinho

Re: Paulinho's multi-system fun TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 8. liverpool vs tottenham owen 1.90 9. man utd vs wolves scholes 2.63 10. man utd vs wolves RVN 1.67 11. liverpool vs tottenham postiga 3.25 bets: 7 w/l: 3/4 current bank: 100.00 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 6. liverpool vs tottenham 2-1 8/1 bets: 5 w/l: 0/5 current bank: 95.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 7. blackburn vs man city over 0.86 :) 8. leicester vs middlesbroughunder 0.80 :) 9. charlton vs everton over 1.00 :) 10. liverpool vs tottenham under 0.95 bets: 9 w/l: 5/4 current bank: 100.40 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 9. Leeds vs Southampton 2.40 :) 10. Leicester vs Middlesbrough 2.38 :) 11. Portsmouth vs Bolton 2.40 :( 12. Charlton vs Everton 2.33 :) bets: 12 w/l: 4/8 current bank: 101.57 _________________________________________________ looking a little rosier this evening. think i may have to avoid including those nasty pompey scum for a bit tho, someone has forgotten to tell them that they're nationwide, i'm sure normal service will be resumed shortly :)

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quick update TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) bets: 11 w/l: 3/8 current bank: 96.01 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) bets: 6 w/l: 0/6 current bank: 94.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 11. chelsea vs blackburn        over        0.85 12. middlesbrough vs leeds        under        0.80 13. wolves vs pompey        under        0.95 14. man city vs arsenal        over        0.80 bets: 10 w/l: 6/4 current bank: 101.35 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) bets: 12 w/l: 4/8 current bank: 101.57 _________________________________________________ selections for w/e in next coupla days

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Re: quick update N.B. all odds are 1.00 less than actual decimal value, for ease of calculation given they're copied from a spreadsheet TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 12. everton vs liverpool rooney 1.63 13. middlesbrough vs leeds mendieta 2.75 14. newcastle vs birmingham shearer 1.10 15. bolton vs charlton okocha 2.75 16. chelsea vs blackburn jansen 3.00 17. tottenham vs fulham postiga 1.50 18. man city vs arsenal vieira 6.00 bets: 11 w/l: 3/8 current bank: 96.01 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 7. aston villa vs leicester 2-1 8.50 8. chelsea vs blackburn 3-2 39.00 bets: 6 w/l: 0/6 current bank: 94.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 11. chelsea vs blackburn over 0.85 12. middlesbrough vs leeds under 0.80 13. wolves vs pompey under 0.95 14. man city vs arsenal over 0.80 bets: 10 w/l: 6/4 current bank: 101.35 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 13. Everton vs Liverpool 2.40 14. Bolton vs Charlton 2.40 15. Tottenham vs Fulham 2.61 bets: 12 w/l: 4/8 current bank: 101.57 _________________________________________________

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update and thoughts TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 18. man city vs arsenal vieira 6.00 bets: 17 w/l: 3/14 current bank: 90.01 :eek since i've been testing this since last season the biggest losing run was 3. its now 13, and the overall has finally moved into the red :eek . in a way, kinda a good thing cos its a damn silly thing to bet on, which i'm guessing i won't be doing now. _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) bets: 8 w/l: 0/8 current bank: 92.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 14. man city vs arsenal over 0.80 bets: 13 w/l: 8/5 current bank: 102.15 very close to putting real money on these now. been backing my strongest feelings for a while now, and its now overall over 100 bets at an oscillating 20% yield, so looking healthy. definitely helped by being able to get pretty much 100% books on it. _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) bets: 15 w/l: 5/10 current bank: 101.97 again, closing in on 100 bets overall, still in the black. may start to back the strong feeling ones shortly, but wont do it as a l-t strategy till at least another 50 _________________________________________________

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Re: update TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 19. italy vs wales        vieri        0.73 20. italy vs wales        del piero        1.10 bets: 18 w/l: 3/15 current bank: 89.01 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 9. holland vs austria        3-0        8.00 10. macedonia vs england        0-2        6.50 11. italy vs wales        3-1        11.00 bets: 8 w/l: 0/8 current bank: 92.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) bets: 14 w/l: 9/5 current bank: 102.95 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) bets: 15 w/l: 5/10 current bank: 101.97 _________________________________________________

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Re: update TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) bets: 20 w/l: 4/16 current bank: 89.11 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) bets: 11 w/l: 0/11 current bank: 89.00 getting the one goal away on a painstakingly regular basis. would no doubt be driving me nuts if i had money on em. ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) bets: 14 w/l: 9/5 current bank: 102.95 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) bets: 15 w/l: 5/10 current bank: 101.97 _________________________________________________

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Re: update TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) bets: 20 w/l: 4/16 current bank: 89.11 _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) 12. england vs liechtenstein        5-0        7.00 bets: 11 w/l: 0/11 current bank: 89.00 ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 15. spain vs ukraine over        0.80 bets: 14 w/l: 9/5 current bank: 102.95 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 16. Czech Republic vs Holland        2.25 17. Belgium vs Croatia        2.30 bets: 15 w/l: 5/10 current bank: 101.97 _________________________________________________

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Re: update TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) 21. chelsea vs tottenham        mutu        1.10 22. everton vs newcastle        rooney        1.50 23. southampton vs wolves        phillips        1.38 bets: 20 w/l: 4/16 current bank: 89.11 very close to calling it a day with this. it was kept in the black last season by a few midfielders scoring at about 7/2. most of these similiar situations are now 2/1, and it is a bit of a stupid mkt for long term anyway. will give it a couple more weeks maybe _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) sacked it in. despite still being in profit after the best part of 100 bets this is more luck than judgement. also believe the odds are becoming less generous. would never have the confidence to make it a viable long term strategy, so no point wasting any more time on it. ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 16. blackburn vs liverpool        over        1.00 17. southampton vs wolves        under        0.90 18. chelsea vs tottenham        over        0.79 19. everton vs newcastle        over        0.85 bets: 15 w/l: 10/5 current bank: 103.75 _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) 18. Blackburn vs Liverpool        2.40 19. Bolton vs Middlesbrough        2.75 20. Everton vs Newcastle        2.33 21. Birmingham vs Fulham        2.40 bets: 17 w/l: 5/12 current bank: 99.97 _________________________________________________

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Re: update and thoughts TO SCORE AT ANY TIME all odds bet365 (for now anyway) well mutu won today, but carnt be arsed anymore. _________________________________________________ CORRECT SCORE (all) ah, the irony, the one score i had down for the w/e before i decided not to bother anymore was saints 2-0 wolves. nevermind, still a silly l-t bet and twas only a 13/2 anyway. ________________________________________________ UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) four winnners today and very very very close to start putting real money on em. still holding a strong 25% yield on over 100 bets, altho yet to see a losing run of more than 3, so maybe one to come... bets: 19 w/l: 14/5 current bank: 107.29 yield: 38.35% average odds: 1.87 strike rate: 73.68% req'd rate: 53.38% _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) just the one winner from 3 today, still a little way to go b4 starting to back em with real cash 21. Birmingham vs Fulham 2.40 bets: 20 w/l: 6/14 current bank: 100.30 yield: 1.50% average odds: 3.42 strike rate: 30.00% req'd rate: 29.26% _________________________________________________ NEW SYSTEM: 2-3 GOALS after the contoinued success of the over/under markets, am going to try my luck with picking games to have 2-3 goals. the one time i tried this before, i went for trebles from 10 games one weekend and 7/10 came up. i also often see the games i reject for o/u end in 2-3, or at least i think i do so may as well check it out. odds usually always 10/11 or evens, tho not available on betfair or many bookies for that matter, so may be slightly tougher to make a profit. we'll see...

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post scriptum interesting aside, in the over/under stuff, of the 100 or so games picked since mid-last season, there have been 19 with odds greater than 1.95 (including the one today) and only 2 losers. odds below 1.80 is also 19 but only 7 winners interesting...

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v quick update UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) bets: 19 w/l: 14/5 current bank: 107.29 yield: 38.35% average odds: 1.87 strike rate: 73.68% req'd rate: 53.38% _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all, altho almost always betfair adjusted) bets: 21 w/l: 7/14 current bank: 102.70 yield: 12.86% average odds: 3.42 strike rate: 33.00% req'd rate: 29.26% _________________________________________________ NEW SYSTEM: 2-3 GOALS _________________________________________________

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w/e selections UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 20. fulham vs man city        over        0.90 21. leeds vs birmingham        under        1.00 22. liverpool vs leicester        under        1.05 23. newcastle vs bolton        over        0.80 bets: 19 w/l: 14/5 current bank: 107.29 yield: 38.35% average odds: 1.87 strike rate: 73.68% req'd rate: 53.38% before anyone complains that the 1.00 on the leeds game is no longer available, it was when i added it to the spreadsheet, just delaying the update till bluesq released their 2-3 odds _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all) 22. Aston Villa vs Charlton        2.42 23. Fulham vs Man City        2.40 24. Leeds vs Birmingham        2.40 25. Tottenham vs Southampton        2.40 26. Middlebrough vs Everton        2.35 bets: 21 w/l: 7/14 current bank: 102.70 yield: 12.86% average odds: 3.42 strike rate: 33.00% req'd rate: 29.26% _________________________________________________ 2-3 GOALS (bluesq, unless i can find somewhere else that does em) 1        wolves vs chelsea        1.10 2        aston villa vs charlton        0.91 3        pompey vs blackburn        0.91 4        spurs vs saints        0.91 5        boro vs everton        0.91 6        man u vs arsenal        0.91 _________________________________________________ coming soon... "BLOW THE LOAN"... watch this space :)

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how @#%$ do newcastle want to be? UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) bets: 23 w/l: 16/7 current bank: 107.19 yield: 31.25% average odds: 1.88 strike rate: 69.57% req'd rate: 53.07% _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all) 26. Middlebrough vs Everton 2.35 bets: 25 w/l: 8/17 current bank: 102.10 yield: 8.40% average odds: 3.41 strike rate: 32.00% req'd rate: 29.30% _________________________________________________ 2-3 GOALS (bluesq, unless i can find somewhere else that does em) 5 boro vs everton 0.91 6 man u vs arsenal 0.91 bets: 4 w/l: 2/2 current bank: 99.82 _________________________________________________ coming soon... "BLOW THE LOAN"... watch this space

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w/e selections UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 24. arsenal vs newcastle over 0.75 25. southampton vs boro under 0.85 26. bolton vs wolves under 1.00 27. chelsea vs aston villa over 0.80 28. blackburn vs fulham over 0.85 bets: 23 w/l: 16/7 current bank: 107.19 yield: 31.25% average odds: 1.88 strike rate: 69.57% req'd rate: 53.07% _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all) 27. Bolton vs Wolves 2.71 28. Blackburn vs Fulham 2.50 29. Everton vs Leeds 2.52 bets: 26 w/l: 8/18 current bank: 101.10 yield: 4.23% average odds: 3.43 strike rate: 30.77% req'd rate: 29.16% _________________________________________________ 2-3 GOALS (bluesq) 7 leicester vs man utd 1.00 8 charlton vs liverpool 0.91 9 everton vs leeds 0.91 10 man city vs tottenham 1.10 11 birmingham vs pompey 0.91 bets: 6 w/l: 2/4 current bank: 97.82 _________________________________________________ coming soon... "BLOW THE LOAN"... watch this space expected start date: October 11th

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needless update (bored as fcuk) UNDER/OVER (bet365, premierbet, betfair adjusted) 24. arsenal vs newcastle over 0.75 :) 25. southampton vs boro under 0.85 :) 26. bolton vs wolves under 1.00 :) 27. chelsea vs aston villa over 0.80 :( 28. blackburn vs fulham over 0.85 bets: 27 w/l: 19/8 current bank: 108.79 yield: 32.54% average odds: 1.88 strike rate: 70.37% req'd rate: 53.24% gonna start putting money on these next week, they seem to be the most reliable thing in my entire betting. still a little worried that i've gone on two amazing winning runs and nothing resembling a losing one yet, but a steady 25% yield after over 100 bets is finally good enough for me. watch em bomb :\ _________________________________________________ DRAWS (all) 27. Bolton vs Wolves 2.71 :) 28. Blackburn vs Fulham 2.50 29. Everton vs Leeds 2.52 bets: 27 w/l: 9/18 current bank: 103.81 yield: 14.10% average odds: 3.43 strike rate: 33.33% req'd rate: 29.16% _________________________________________________ 2-3 GOALS (bluesq) 7 leicester vs man utd 1.00 :( 8 charlton vs liverpool 0.91 9 everton vs leeds 0.91 10 man city vs tottenham 1.10 11 birmingham vs pompey 0.91 :) bets: 8 w/l: 3/5 current bank: 97.73 _________________________________________________ coming soon... "BLOW THE LOAN"... watch this space expected start date: October 11th while i'm here and nothing better to do, i thought i'd draw up me plan for the most exciting thing ever. sort of. basically, since before, during and then after the GC knicker comp, i've been building big accies over days/weeks (and using diff. bookies, thus eliminating the usual accy overround problem) by starting with a quid and lumping the lot everytime on a, IMO dead cert, average odds are usually 1.15-1.25. the first couple bombed when i refused to stop, one at 15 bets the other at 7 or so. GC went down after about 6 i think. each time they went down it was cos i was betting purely on the odds, not actually knowing anything about at least one of the things the money was on, e.g. random european footy games, unheard of snooker players... since the knicker comp i've done 4 more, making sure to be sensible and look to build it up slowly if necessary, but not put it on anything silly. one i stopped when it got to £5, the next got to £10, took £5 out and then took it to £10 again and same again for the last one. currently stands at £7 something again after the gers and chelski today. anyway, always wanted to play with more than just the quid, given that turning £1 into £5 or £10 has proved easy enough (immortal last words) then turning £100 into £500 is obviously very tempting. now the loan cheque comes thru in a couple of weeks, so i'll have plenty of money to play with, and think, especially with some university bursary money due i can afford to lose £100 for the thrill of the experiment. the plan is to make the £100 back first, which at average odds of about 1.2 takes roughly 4 bets. when thats safe the next £100 will go on for as long as i dare. a grand is about the 14th step at 1.2. i know its stupidly risky and the GC comp showed that these things inevitably bomb far quicker than expected, rangers almost blew it today, but you only live once right? and losing £100 isnt half as annoying as winning a few hundred would be satisfying. anyway, no-one is gonna talk me out of it, its just a matter of waiting till the cheque comes thru. (i could theoretically do it now, but then it wouldnt really feel like blowing the student loan on reckless gambling, and therefore lose its great rock n roll value ;) ) if it succeeds, first on the shopping list is a digital radio :)

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Re: needless update (bored as fcuk) Try and stop you?!?! No fear of that old boy!! Go For IT!! I know you'll get people like Joe telling you it's madness but Hey! Betting's got two aspects to it, the serious money making side and the fun side. As long as you're not using your main betting pool to fund it then what's the harm in having a bit of fun. Been tempted to do something similiar myself many a time and after reading this thread you might have tempted me into giving it a go too. Especially I've got extra in my paypacket this month due to overtime. Best of Luck if you go ahead with it!

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Re: needless update (bored as fcuk) Just use the £100 to bet on whichever of the Old Firm is at home each week. Accy pays about 50/1 and came in last year (dont know if it did the year before). Turn your £100 into £5000 :D

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Guest paulinho

Re: needless update (bored as fcuk) i'm sure they'll feature at some point, but theres usually more than a bet a week, often 4 or 5. during the tennis slams its loads more. rugby world cup coming up soon, in fact, should be just in time :) price on new zealand vs spain anyone? :)

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