EPL KISS - Keep It Simple System

[Guest Danno 1X2]

This is a simple system that uses average home goals V average away goals to forecast EPL match results. I have discovered that mere supremacy alone does not give adequate results but combined with the forecast score it sort of clicks into place. The forecast score and supremacy is used to allocate the match to one of 11 sections (categories) based on set criteria. Sections 1.1 and 1.2 represent strong home supremacy while, at the other end, section 4.3 represents strong away supremacy. The system starts on Nov 1st each season after the early blips have smoothed out. Last season I only backed selections from sections 1.1 & 1.2 and achieved a SR of 73%. These form the basis for the KISS Homes bets. KISS Value system bets ignore the forecast and look only at the section that a game sits in. Based on previous results for games in that section (% Homes, Draws, Aways) it calculates the system odds for Home, Draw, Away. Comparing those odds against bookie prices highlights supposed value. This is a new idea that is likely to crash in flames soon!. Prices are BetBrain highest from established bookies and are checked to ensure they exist at time of posting. This is a developing system and open to comment from anybody.

[Guest Danno 1X2]

Re: EPL KISS - Keep It Simple System Sodding HTML This will have to do for the mo. Too much detail to fit in so these are just the forecasts with no backup figures. In the forecasts below, even though the predicted score for a game might be 1-2, the section that the game sits in may have historically thrown up fewer away wins than might be expected. Therefore the system would identify value in a bet on the home team which should prove true over a period of time. Similarly, even though a good home win might be predicted, like Everton 2 - 0 Wolves, if there is no value in the bookie price compared to the system odds then it is a No Bet. .......... F'cast F'cast .. Game .. Home . Away .. Section. Bet Ful v Ply.. 2 .... 0 ..... 1.1 ... Fulham (Ukbetting 2.00) Evt v Wol.. 2 .... 0 ..... 1.1 ... No bet M U v Blk.. 2 .... 1 ..... 1.2 ... Draw (Expekt 5.55) Lei v Cha.. 2 .... 2 ..... 3.2 ... Leicester (Vic Chandler 2.75) Tot v A V.. 1 .... 1 ..... 2.2 ... No bet Lee v Bol.. 1 .... 1 ..... 3.3 ... No bet Mbo v Liv.. 1 .... 2 ..... 4 ..... Middlesboro (Centrebet 3.00) New v M C.. 1 .... 2 ..... 4 ..... Man City (Betdirect 4.6) Sot v Che.. 1 .... 2 ..... 4 ..... Southampton (Canbet 5.50) Bir v Ars.. 1 .... 2 ..... 4 ..... Birmingham (Playit 4.65)