Guest sniper Posted January 16, 2004 Share Posted January 16, 2004 I am a regular footie punter and I av noticed that when u bet on a match in which the teams r equally matched(i.e. where the prob dist is very similar, maybe 5/4, 9/4, 7/4), it does actually pay to bet equal amounts on the fav and the draw. This seems to av a very high success rate (80%+). The best way is to maybe bet this way on 3 or 4 matches p/w .Although this system is of no use short term, over the course of the season it does show a nice tidy little profit. wot does everyone else think ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) From 3162 European league matches during 2000/01 to 2002/03 where home odds were 2.25 to 2.5, strike rate was 67% and profit over turnover was -9.9%. For home odds of 2.25 only (706 matches), strike rate was 71% and profit over turnover was -7.0%. Odds from William Hill online. Make of that what you will. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) In a similar vein where I see a set of match prices where the teams odds range from 5/4 - 7/4 indicating the teams are evenly matched I often find myself swayed to backing the away team as I feel that the only reason the away team is not clear favourite is because of the venue. Does this theory hold water, or is it another case of clutching at straws. I am afraid I don't have any stats to back this up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Giuseppe Muldoon Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) Same data set, all aways priced 2.25 to 2.75, 4106 games, profit over turnover = -13.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Giuseppe Muldoon Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) Whoops, I've taken on my alta ego. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sniper Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) Just a little thought, would this system work if u were just to bet on the draw? Does ne1 av ne stats?:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sniper Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 footie system (sort of !) ..... or maybe even using 1x system but concerntrating on certain divisions, i.e. 2 out of the 4 English divisions etc :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: footie system (sort of !) If you intend to use odds as a guide for your betting selections, BEWARE. I have travelled many different paths with this concept, and there is no universal answer. ALL leagues have different characteristics.These change throughout the season and from season to season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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