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Exit strategy for "in play trading" of draws


asc

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Hello, I try to make money by in play betting on betfair. My strategy is: lay a draw before a match starts (price must be between 3.0 and 3.55) and back the draw as soon as a goal has been scored. Example: Last monday 20:45 Vannes – Lens (second division in France). The starting odd for the draw was 3.20 so I layed it for 8 euro. My Liability was then 17.60 At 21:33 Lens scored 0-1 and the price for went up to 5.6. So I staked 4.57 euro. No matter how the match will end (draw or not) I have a garanteed profit, as is seen below: Profit for draw: 8 - 4.57 = 3.43 Profit for none-draw: 4.6*4.57 - 17.60 = 3.42 So this was a succesful trade. But it's not always like this. For example if it's in minute 75 still 0-0 the price drops to for example 1.65. In that case I want to shorten my liability (because I dont want to loose my entire stake) so I back the draw for the same price as for which I layed the draw (8 euros in this example). My question is: is this a good "exit strategy"? Or are there better ways to minimialize my risk in case the price for the draw is going down. Any help is appreciated!!!

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: Exit strategy for "in play trading" of draws Hi, asc! I have been trying to use the very same system you mentioned. At first I tried to back the 0:0 at the Exact Score market having a profit that covers the liability on the layed draw. It didn't prove to be successful. The thing is that when a goal is scored the draw rarely goes higher than 4.5-5.0 (unless it's scored in the last minutes of the game. Even if the 0:0 is as high as 20 (in this case you need considerably smaller ammount on the exact score in order to cover the liability on the layed draw), the profit made when a goal is scored is far from encouraging. What I try to do now is to lay draws on games that involve a team that is on a draw streak. Or a team that finished 0:0 in their last game. (There are exceptions like York, tonight they made their 5th draw in a row). With a game being tied at 0:0 at the 75th minute I would probably leave it as is, hoping for a goal. If it finishes 0:0 I would lay the draw on the games of the two teams next week (it's very rare that a team will make two consecutive 0:0 draws) So, in short, try to be selective on the games you choose for this strategy. There is a lot that could be discussed about 'Lay the draw'. I would say that it's possible to make some profit, it depends on how you approach the system. By the way, asc, may i reach you on private, I would like to discuss something you discussed on other topics. All the best, Dimitriy

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